Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 201120

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
420 AM MST Fri Jan 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 419 AM MST Fri Jan 20 2017

...Some Snow and Rain with Upper Disturbance Moving Through...

An upper disturbance can be seen in satellite spinning near the 4
corners region this morning.  It is forecast by high res models to
move east across the plains today, developing into a circulation
that should spread some snow and rain showers east from the Pikes
Peak Region and across the plains through the afternoon.

Radar shows precipitation developing with some surface observations
showing a mixture of light rain and snow showers across El Paso and
Teller Counties at this time.

Per high res models, this development should continue along a
deformation axis associated with a negatively tilted trough moving
onto the plains at this time.  This will tend to keep showers
developing over the Pikes Peak Region for a while this morning, with
the activity gradually spreading to the south and east across the
plains through the morning and afternoon hours.  Pueblo County may
even catch some of the shower activity a little bit later this
morning.  It`s not too cold so could be rain, snow or a mixture of
the two below about 6000 feet.  Any accumulations this morning
should be mainly across the Pikes Peak Region and limited to an inch
or 2.  Some local wet accumulations mainly on grassy areas are
possible elsewhere across the lower elevations today. will continue to snow along the Continental Divide
this morning before going into a lull this afternoon and evening.
Activity should start ramping up over the southwest mountains again
overnight as the next system approaches.  Winter storm warnings and
advisories will remain in place.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 419 AM MST Fri Jan 20 2017

Fairly active weather pattern on tap for the state, with significant
new snow for the mountains expected through the extended period.

Saturday...Quick-moving upper disturbance rolls across the Four
Corners and northern New Mexico through the day Saturday, bringing
showers to the southern sections of the CWA as well as additional
snow to the mts. Much of the snow is forecast to fall through the
first half of the day, then taper off through the aftn. Ongoing
winter wx highlights for the peaks looks good, with an additional 5
to 8 inches of snow expected for those areas.

Sunday...Temporary ridge over the desert southwest from late Sat
night through the day Sunday should provide for mainly dry
conditions but continued cool. Look for max temps similar to Sat,
with mid 40s for the e plains and around 30F for the high valleys.

Monday through Thursday...Large upper trough moves onshore across
the West Coast starting late Sunday night, increasing sw flow across
the Four Corners and drawing moisture up into western Colorado. This
will keep the threat of snow for the mountains in place Monday
through Wednesday, with a very good chance of strong winds for the
mts and adjacent plains Sunday night through Monday. The upper
trough axis finally tracks across the state early Thu, making for
dry but cool conditions Thu and heading into the weekend. Monday is
expected to be the warmest day of the extended period, with mid 30s
for the high valleys, and lower 50s for the e plains. Tue starts a
cooling trend with max temps in the 30s and 40s, then 20s and 30s
for Wed and Thu. Moore


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 419 AM MST Fri Jan 20 2017

Upper disturbance will track across the flight area today, producing
fairly widespread IFR to LIFR conditions across the Continental
Divide.  Elsewhere...more scattered precipitation will result in
areas of MVFR, IFR and LIFR conditions through the afternoon, with
improving conditions after 00z.

For KCOS today, expect showers of some rain but mostly snow this
morning into the afternoon, tapering off late.  Generally MVFR
conditions expected with possible IFR to LIFR at times during
heavier snow showers.

For KPUB, a lesser chance of rain and snow showers through early
afternoon before tapering off.  Generally MVFR during showers but
could go down briefly to IFR or LIFR if changeover to snow occurs
and precipitation is heavy enough.

KALS is dealing with low clouds and scattered snow showers around
the terminal this morning.  Currently IFR cigs there which should
continue until 14-16Z at which time increasing winds should help to
lift cigs and break up low clouds.  Best chance for showers will be
through the morning hours with decreasing chances through the
afternoon.  Possibility of MVFR, IFR or LIFR conditions in showers
this morning with generally VFR in the afternoon.


Winter Storm Warning until 8 PM MST Saturday for COZ066-068.

Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM MST Saturday for COZ058-060-



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