Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 270946
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
346 AM MDT WED JUL 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 346 AM MDT Wed Jul 27 2016

As of 3am, thunderstorms were winding down ovr Prowers county and by
6am pcpn should end.  An upper level ridge wl be centered ovr the
Great Basin today and tonight with drier air moving into the area
from the west.  Looks dry thru the morning hours acrs the forecast
area.  In the afternoon it looks like some isold to sct
showers/tstms wl develop ovr mountain areas. The NAM and GFS show
little chance for pcpn developing ovr the lower elevations this
afternoon.  However, the HRRR has some isold activity developing in
the afternoon acrs the sern plains.  For now, will leave the lower
elevations dry this afternoon.  High temps today should be around 5
degrees above average in most locations.

Tonight a weak disturbance is expected to move acrs northeast CO and
southwest NE and into KS.  This system is expected to help kick off
some showers/tstms ovr the far ern portions of CO, and could cause
some pcpn ovr the Palmer DVD/Pikes Peak region as well.  If storms
do affect the far sern plains tonight, there wl be the potential for
heavy rain and possibly a couple severe or marginally severe
storms.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 346 AM MDT Wed Jul 27 2016

Thursday-Friday...Generally weak north to northwest flow
continues across the region with the subtropical high remaining
south and west of the state across the Desert SW and southern Great
Basin, as occasional short waves translate across the faster zonal
flow across the Pac NW and Northern Tier. The position of the high
and the northerly flow aloft continues to dry out the atmosphere
across the higher terrain, though there looks to be enough residual
moisture to keep the mention of a few isolated storms across
southwest and south central Colorado both Thursday and Friday
afternoons and early evenings. If storms do develop, they are
expected to be high based, producing more wind than rain.

Further east, short waves digging down the backside of the high
within the north to northwest flow to bring in surges of low level
moisture and keep chances of deep moist convection in place through
the period. NAM remains the furthest west with an MCS moving across
NW Kansas and the far se plains into early Thursday morning, with
outflow keeping low level moisture in place across the plains
Thursday afternoon and evening. A similar set up is expected across
the eastern plains Thursday night through Friday night, as another
short wave digs down the back side of the high across the northern
High Plains. Isolated to scattered storms developing over and near
the eastern mountains through the late afternoons to spread east
through the late evenings, with the potential for a few strong to
severe storms across the far southeast plains both Thursday and
Friday. Locally heavy rainfall will also be a threat across the
eastern plains both days. Temperatures through the period to be
generally above seasonal averages across the western half of the
area, with at to slightly cooler than normal temps across the
eastern plains, especially on Friday.

Saturday-Tuesday...Latest models continue to indicate an upper
trough developing across the Pac NW into the weekend, which
continues to dig into the Great Basin into early next week. This
will allow for weak south to southwest flow aloft to develop as the
upper high is slowly pushed to the east of the state, opening the
door to increasing monsoonal moisture once again. With that said,
should see increasing chances of daily showers and storms, as well
as wetting rains, over and near the higher terrain through the
period, with the far se plains likely becoming capped as the high
moves across state. With the increased convective activity,
temperatures to be around seasonal averages into early next week,
though will likely spike to above seasonal readings across the
plains as the high moves across the state.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 346 AM MDT Wed Jul 27 2016

KCOS has low stratus in the vcnty this morning which should
dissipate by midmorning.  Otherwise...VFR conditions are expected at
the terminal forecast sites today and most of tonight.  There are
some indications that KCOS and maybe KPUB, could see some low clouds
in the vcnty late tonight/early Thu morning, but it is too uncertain
at this time to include in the forecast.

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28


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