Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 231734

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1134 AM MDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Issued at 900 AM MDT Sun Apr 23 2017

The fuels status in the San Luis Valley is now considered critical
and with the strong wind gusts and low humidities expected on Mon,
have issued a Red Flag Warning for Mon from noon to 7 pm.

UPDATE Issued at 707 AM MDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Frost Advisory allowed to expire. Temperatures in the advisory
area are generally above freezing and will continue to rise.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 337 AM MDT Sun Apr 23 2017

...Cool Start then Dry and Warmer...

Temperatures will start out rather chilly this morning...ranging
anywhere from the mid 20s in the mountains to the mid 30s across the
plains.  As a result, a Frost Advisory will remain in affect for
parts of the plains this morning.

This afternoon, however, will be another story.  A rapidly building
ridge of high pressure will bring much warmer temperatures to the
region with highs expected to top out well above average at all
locations.  Readings will range from 70 to 80 across the plains. The
high valleys will see 60 to 70.  The mountains will generally see
40s and 50s below 12,000 feet and 30s above.

Along with the warmer temperatures will come the wind.  Most areas
will see gusty south to southwest winds develop in the afternoon.
This shouldn`t require need of fire weather highlights in most cases
as fuels are showing a decent greenup at most locations.  However,
for those areas where the greenup may be lagging, there could be
some concerns. If you are in one of those areas, it is advisable to
avoid outdoor burning or any other activity that could accidentally
start a wildfire.

Tonight, the upper ridge will start to flatten a little ahead of an
incoming system.  It may flatten enough to allow a few rain or snow
showers to develop across the higher terrain north of Monarch Pass.
However, any accumulation should be negligible and confined to the
higher terrain above 11,000 feet.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 337 AM MDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Models continue to keep an active weather pattern across Colorado
through the extended period. Several disturbances are forecast to
move across the area bringing rain, cooler temperatures and
perhaps a little snow. upper disturbance is forecast to move across
Wyoming into the northern Plains by Monday evening. This will
likely bring isolated shower activity to the Central Mountains
through the day. Strong westerly flow aloft and mixing will likely
bring elevated fire weather concerns to the San Luis Valley, along
with the I-25 corridor Monday afternoon. Fuels will need to be
monitored, especially over the San Luis Valley where less
precipitation has fallen recently. Temperatures will be warm with
highs in the lower 80s.

Tuesday and Wednesday...the next upper disturbance is forecast to
drop south across Colorado by Tuesday and exit the area on
Wednesday. A strong cold front is forecast to move across the
Plains with low level upslope flow combining with increasing
moisture across the area. That, combined with the upper
disturbance will lead to periods of moderate to heavy rainfall
across the region Tuesday afternoon and overnight into Wednesday
morning. Model guidance is suggesting snow levels may fall down to
the 6 kft level by Wednesday morning. Several inches are expected
over the mountain areas, with perhaps a dusting of wet snow over
the Palmer Divide. Expect precipitation to shift off to the east
by Wednesday afternoon before the next disturbance moves into the
area. Temperatures will only reach the 50s to lower 60s, while
overnight lows fall into the mid 30s Tuesday night, with slightly
warmer conditions Wednesday night.

Thursday through Saturday...the next upper disturbance is forecast
to strengthen and develop into an upper low over the Four Corners
region Thursday into Friday. Several waves of energy are forecast
to lift north across Colorado, which combined with low level
moisture and upslope flow will bring additional rounds of moderate
to heavy rainfall to southern Colorado. The upper low will slowly
eject east across Colorado by Saturday. Models are suggesting much
cooler air with this upper disturbance with highs in the 50s.
There is some concern based on guidance from the ECMWF we may be
much cooler than that. It has lows in the mid to upper 20s by the
weekend and highs in the 40s. It also brings snow down to the
surface across most of the Plains as the upper system moves off to
the east. The GFS is not quite as cold, but does bring near
freezing temperatures for lows by the weekend. This will need to
be monitored as we move through the work week and confidence
increases.  Mozley


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1131 AM MDT Sun Apr 23 2017

VFR conditions are expected at the terminal forecast sites thru
the next 24 hrs. Gusty south to southwest winds are expected this
afternoon at KCOS and KALS. KPUB should see southerly winds as
well this afternoon but may not be as gusty. Winds will become
gusty again on Monday either in the late morning or early
afternoon hours and then remain gusty into the early evening


Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM MDT Monday for COZ224.



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