Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 201743
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1143 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

CURRENTLY...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPS GENERALLY
IN THE 60S PLAINS....AND 40S AND 50S VALLEYS/MTNS.

TODAY...

TEMPS WILL BE HOT TODAY WITH MOST AREAS ON THE PLAINS IN THE U90S TO
L100S. THE WARMEST TEMPS (>=100F) WILL BE ALONG THE LOWER ARK RVR
VALLEY FROM ABOUT PUEBLO EASTWARD TO THE KS BORDER. VALLEYS WILL BE
IN THE 80S WITH 70S MTNS. THESE TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 4 TO 8F ABOVE
AVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF A HOT SPELL THAT
IS GOING TO LAST UNTIL AT LEAST LATE THIS WEEK. AS FOR PRECIP...NOT
MUCH IS EXPECTED TODAY. MOST PRECIP WILL BE TIED TO THE TERRAIN WITH
MOST OF THE PLAINS REMAINING DRY. THE BEST SHOT OF SOME RAIN ON THE
PLAINS WILL BE OVER FAR SE CO AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL EXIST OVER
THIS REGION LATER TODAY. NO STRONG CONVECTION IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH
I CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY VIRGA SHOWERS.
PWATS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LOW...SO THE FLASH FLOODING
THREAT OVER THE BURN SCARS SHOULD BE LOW.

TONIGHT...

ANY PRECIP OVER THE AREA SHOULD END BY SUNSET. SKIES TONIGHT WILL BE
PARTLY CLOUDY AS SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE
REGION. IT WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70F ON THE
PLAINS. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

PRIMARY LONGER TERM ISSUES ARE POPS AND TEMPERATURES.

RECENT LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS SUGGEST THAT UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO MONDAY SHIFTS INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE BECOMING CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION FROM THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

AT THE SURFACE...EASTERN COLORADO LEE-SIDE TROUGH IN PLACE FROM
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE NORTHERLY/NORTHEASTERLY SURGE
MOVES ACROSS TUESDAY. EASTERN COLORADO LEE-SIDE TROUGHING THEN
BECOMES ESTABLISHED AGAIN FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE
NEXT NORTHERLY/NORTHEASTERLY SURGES DEVELOPS FRIDAY.

ENOUGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS PROJECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE FORECAST DURING THE LONGER TERM TO WARRANT PRIMARILY ISOLATED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

ABOVE SEASONAL LATE JULY TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
FORECAST DISTRICT DURING THE LONGER TERM AS 700 MB INTERSTATE
25 TEMPERATURES APPROACH/EXCEED 20C AT TIMES ALLOWING THE
MAJORITY OF EASTERN COLORADO TO NOTE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES RISING
INTO THE 90S TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK AT TIMES FROM
MONDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
COULD AFFECT KALS AND KCOS TAF SITES. PROBABILITY IS LOW...BUT DUE
TO GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL WHICH IS HIGH FROM THESE STORMS...HAVE
INTRODUCED VCTS INTO THE KALS AND KCOS TAFS WITH ERRATIC GUSTS UP
TO 30 KTS. -TSRA THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY 02-03Z FOR BOTH SITES.
THREAT FOR -TS LOOKS TOO LOW AT KPUB AT THIS TIME...BUT LATEST
RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...KT


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