Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 181114
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
514 AM MDT Fri Aug 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 514 AM MDT Fri Aug 18 2017

...Generally Warm and Dry Today...

Dry westerly flow across the forecast area today.  Some of the
driest air we`ve seen for a while.  Water vapor pictures all show
dry air over Colorado.  Total Precipitable Water values are
generally below average. Shortwave ridge and subsidence forecast to
translate eastward across the region through the afternoon and
evening.  What does it all mean?  It means little shower or
thunderstorm activity today and what there is will be pretty weak
and confined mainly to the mountains.  It also means near to above
average temperatures for most areas.  The burn scars will likely be
spared once again.  Of the few storms that do manage to form, the
primary threats will be lightning and gusty winds.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 514 AM MDT Fri Aug 18 2017

Some adjustments required from earlier meteorological reasoning
with main longer range issues continuing to be temperatures and
pops.

Varying degrees of upper ridging is expected to continue over the
forecast district from this weekend into next week. In addition,
a relatively moist northeasterly to easterly surface surge is
expected to impact primarily eastern sections of the forecast
district from Tuesday into at least mid-week.

Also, precipitable water values over locations such as the
Interstate 25 corridor are projected to increase from
approximately .70 inches this afternoon to around 1.25 inches at
times by the middle of next week.

The combination of the increased moisture and projected localized
capes, LI`s and bulk shear wind shear values challenging the 1500
J/KG, -5C and 30 knots at times by the middle of next week will
allow for the potential of intense storms as well as storms
capable of producing heavy rain and localized flash flooding at
times, favoring eastern portions.

At this time, it appears that the most active meteorological
conditions during the longer term should be realized from Tuesday
into Thursday. As always, WFO Pueblo will monitor closely and
issue hydro/severe products as warranted.

Finally, maximum and minimum temperatures are projected to run
above climatological averages over the majority of the forecast
district from Saturday into Monday with maximum temperatures then
running near to below later August climatological averages from
Tuesday into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 514 AM MDT Fri Aug 18 2017

Generally dry westerly flow with shortwave ridging and subsidence
across the forecast area next 24 hours.  There could be a few
isolated late day showers or storms but they should be pretty weak
and confined mainly to the mountains.  The primary concerns with any
storms will be lightning and gusty winds.  Thunderstorms are not
expected to reach the KCOS, KPUB or KALS terminals today. Therefore,
VFR is expected at all 3 sites through the forecast period.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$



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