Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 212057

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
257 PM MDT Sat Oct 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 243 PM MDT Sat Oct 21 2017

Upper trough across eastern CO is currently pushing into the central
plains with dry air spreading in behind.  Given clearing skies and
cold airmass over the area, should see a clear cold night across
southern Colorado with temperatures dropping into the teens across
the high mountains and valleys and 20s to lower 30s elsewhere. Given
that a hard freeze has already occurred across southern Colorado, no
additional freeze highlights will be issued.

Dry northwest flow will overspread the area on Sunday.  Surface lee
trough deepens along the I-25 corridor and adjacent plains which
should help mix down some breezy west to northwest winds into the
valleys and lower elevations of the southeast mountains by
afternoon. Elsewhere winds will remain light with a good warm up as
temperatures across the lower elevations return into the lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 243 PM MDT Sat Oct 21 2017

Not much change to the forecast thinking through the extended
period with a cool down last next week.

Sunday night through Wednesday...Colorado will be caught between a
digging trough over the Great Lakes into the Missouri Valley,
while high pressure builds along the west coast. This will put the
region under broad northwest flow aloft. Expect dry conditions to
prevail across the region through this period with no
precipitation forecast. A cold front will drop south across the
Plains late Monday which will keep temperatures in the upper 60s
for highs, and lower 60s on Tuesday. Warmer afternoon temperatures
are expected on Wednesday with mid to upper 70s across the lower

Thursday through Saturday...models continue to drop an upper
trough south across Colorado Thursday into Friday. The main model
differences are how deep the upper trough becomes, with the GFS
more progressive and further north, while the ECMWF is much slower
and deeper with the upper trough moving across northern New
Mexico. Both model solutions drop a strong cold front south across
the Plains on Thursday. Both break out precipitation late Thursday
afternoon and overnight into Friday morning along the Eastern
Mountains, Palmer Divide and Raton Mesa, with some spreading east
into the Plains. Atmospheric profiles support snow by Thursday
evening across the area, with the most likely area for
accumulation being over the Eastern Mountains. The GFS solution
has precipitation clearing north to south by Friday afternoon and
dry cool conditions on Saturday. The ECMWF is much slower with the
system hanging around into the weekend. One thing is for certain,
it will be much colder with overnight lows in the teens and 20s.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 243 PM MDT Sat Oct 21 2017

VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours with breezy north
winds at KCOS and KALS expected to become light by 02z.  Light
diurnally driven winds can be expected for Sunday with speeds under
15 kts.  -KT




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