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000
FXUS63 KPAH 271957
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
257 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 257 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

There are a couple of surface boundaries of note this afternoon.
The cold front was approaching the Wabash and Ohio Rivers, and it
marks the back edge of the hot air. Unfortunately, the 70
dewpoints extend quite a way to the northwest to another more
subtle wind shift extending from just north of STL to the southern
tip of Lake Michigan.

Along and south of the cold front, heat indices have climbed to
105 and even a bit above. With little cooling expected, have
already issued a Heat Advisory til 00Z. The winds on both sides of
the front have not materialized as forecast, so to keep the
headline clutter down, have cancelled the Lake Wind Advisory.

The thermonuclear cap appears to have effectively shut down any
potential for convection with the cold front this afternoon. The
latest HRRR actually tries to build storms westward along it across
TN this evening, keeping our area dry. Convection along the dewpoint
boundary over east central Illinois is moving east and there is no
sign of it developing farther south toward our northern
territories. Will continue to monitor for southwestward
development, but will keep the grids dry for now.

The dry, cool surface high pressure will eventually push the soup
out of our region tonight, and northerly winds will be the rule
into Tuesday. Had to fabricate some sky grids to account for the
extensive stratocu expected to overspread the area Monday.
Otherwise, there is little to discuss about the short term
forecast.

As for temperatures, stayed close to consensus guidance for lows
tonight and Monday night, but went below guidance Tuesday night,
when the best radiational cooling is expected. For highs, undercut
guidance Monday with significant cloud cover at least through the
afternoon. Didn`t stray too far from consensus for highs on
Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Above medium confidence in the extended with decreasing certainty
into the weekend.

Although there is still some run to run discontinuity especially
with the GFS. The models are consistently decreasing pops late week
and into the weekend. However the operational GFS come into much
better agreement with the upper level trough late in the week. Its
previous run indicated a slower cut off upper low over the lower
Ohio Valley. Now the 12z Sunday run shows a progressive open low
lifting out of the area quickly. This would be a reflection of the
lower pops from the extended init. Also with a north wind
predominant through the week with some easterly flow at
times...would not expect to advect adequate moisture for a
widespread rain event. However with a major upper level trough
swinging through and dew points in the 60s combined with daytime
heating could yield at least chance or slight chance for
thunderstorms.

Tweaked temps down a degree or two from what the extended init
yielded mostly for collaboration purposes.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

It appears at this time that any convection today is likely to be
south and east of the terminals. The thick cu deck should settle
in at VFR levels, and it should generally thin out through the
afternoon. The cold frontal wind shift will take winds to the west
northwest at KCGI and KEVV right at the beginning of the period,
and KPAH and KOWB through the afternoon. As winds become northwest
mixing may take gusts up above 20kts at times. The main issue for
tomorrow will be an expansive stratocu deck as the cooler air
aloft advects over the region. Cannot rule out some MVFR ceilings
at KEVV and KOWB in the late morning.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR ILZ090>094.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ108>112-114.

IN...NONE.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...KH
AVIATION...DRS