Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 281747
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1247 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Revised aviation discussion for 18Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 227 AM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Will carry a chance of convection today, best chances east of the
MS River as a weak mid level disturbance moves across the area. We
are still warm sector ahead of a front to our west. Would not
rule out an isolated shra/tsra tonight, but overall, very low
PoPs. Will keep it mainly dry for now and monitor. The flow at H7
veers around to WNW Sunday with a disturbance forecast to move
across the area. Have a chance of convection in Sunday, as a band
of moisture moves through with an unstable atmosphere forecast.
Dry Sunday night, then PoPs Memorial Day/Night should be confined
to the Ozark Foothill region as a mid level s/wv ridge builds
across the area, keeping most of the area dry. Temps will be a
blend of existing numbers and MOS. Model preference is a blend of
the EC/GEM.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 227 AM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Medium to low confidence on timing of pieces of energy rotating
through on the southwest flow and cold front passage late in the
week. Fairly high confidence there will be periods of storms but
with plenty of dry periods along the way.

The models and ensembles are in fair to good agreement on the upper
level high over the southeast slowly retreating southeast at the
start of the extended. This combined with the fact the Gulf remains
wide open with abundant low level moisture flowing into the
heartland...will result in increasing storm chances as we head
through the middle of next week. However the models including the
GFS ECMWF and Canadian agree on a cold front moving through as early
as Thursday. The ECMWF takes it well southeast of the area resulting
in dry conditions. The GFS and Canadian have slightly different
upper air solutions with the GFS hangs a cut off upper low over the
area while the Canadian and ECMWF keep over the great lakes region.
With recent performance of the GFS and the more stable ECMWF...have
opted to lean toward the ECMWF solution. However...last week it
brought said front through this weekend about a week ago. Now it
leaning toward Thursday which is almost a week later than originally
forecast early last week. So confidence is shaky at best with the
synoptic scenario but thats the best we have available at this time.
Temperature show a cooling trend through the week as the high shifts
away from the region slightly.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Mainly VFR condition are forecast through the near term. The
potential for thunderstorms is highest over eastern terminals
(KEVV/KOWB) this afternoon as a weak disturbance passes through.
More thunderstorm activity expected to develop near KSTL may impact
parts of the area tonight as it progresses to the southeast, but
confidence is too low to include a mention in the TAFs at this time.
Southerly winds gusting up to 20 mph this afternoon will become
light tonight, then veer to the west on Sunday.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$



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