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000
FXUS63 KPAH 090526 AAC
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1126 PM CST Sat Mar 8 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

Updated the aviation discussion for the 06Z TAF issuance.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 802 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

Updated the forecast to account for evening precipitation and sky
cover trends. Potential for light rain showers or sprinkles has
shifted into the southern half of the region, impacting primarily
southeast Missouri, western Kentucky, and far southern Illinois. Not
everyone will even receive rain, and precipitation amounts should
average from a trace to only a few hundredths of an inch at best.
Also delayed clearing overnight by a few hours given the low clouds
apparent upstream. Forecast is otherwise little changed.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

Still having fun with radar trends this afternoon. Now have a
sliver of likely PoPs to account for the narrow band of shower
activity stretching from Perry County Missouri eastward across
southern Illinois. The SREF and NAM both represent this band well
this afternoon, but weaken it quickly this evening and have
nothing overnight. Followed a blend of the two for PoPs through
the evening. Very minor QPF is expected and any shower activity
should be over before temperatures get cold enough for snow to
reach the round.

Observations today indicate colder air and more cloud cover
behind the front than previously expected. Tried to account for
that through the evening, but it should be clearing out from north
to south late this evening and overnight. Likewise, north winds
around 10 mph will prevail this evening behind the front, but they
will weaken overnight. If the wind becomes calm, may have to watch
for more fog and extremely low clouds to develop by sunrise. This
would be most likely over northern portions of the area and into
the northern half of southeast Missouri, including KCGI. The
consensus of guidance should be close for lows tonight.

Plenty of sun, and light and variable winds can be expected Sunday
with surface high pressure overhead. Once again consensus guidance
should be close for highs, but went just a bit above in many locations.
The lone exception was in and around New Madrid county where the
snowpack is likely to still hold temperatures down a few degrees.

Southwest winds will prevail throughout the area Sunday night and
then really pick up and become gusty on Monday. This should lead
to a mild night and a very pleasant day. Went on the warm end of
guidance for highs Monday and stayed close to consensus for lows.

Winds will subside some Monday night as a weak surface boundary
dips southward toward the area. Undercut guidance a bit in a few
locations, mainly across southeast Missouri and southwest
Illinois, where the winds will be the weakest.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

At the beginning of the extended forecast period, the WFO PAH
forecast area experiences the last influence of the southwestern
U.S. closed low/wave that has been in place since the beginning of
the week. At 7 am CDT Tuesday, the southern stream low closes off
once again in southern Texas, while a northern stream shortwave
trough pushes southeast from the upper Midwest, east of the western
U.S. ridge. The net effect of the southern Texas low allows both the
northern and southern streams to come into phase, supporting the
development of a narrow, but long surface trough and cold front,
with a dryline stretching into southwest Texas. The net warm front
develops and remains north of the WFO PAH forecast area, keeping the
local area embedded in the warm sector. In addition, warm air
advection is maximized, leading to temperatures nearly 15 degrees
above normal for early March (upper 60s to lower 70s forecast
Tuesday afternoon).

With most of the shear and limited instability remaining
post-frontal, the primary focus will be a 18 to 24 hour period of
mainly light rain showers from Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Although the impact of the increased insolation in March will be
noticeable with respect to precipitation type (liquid rain), strong
cold air advection behind will still lead to max/min temperatures
falling some 5 to 10 degrees below normal on Wednesday and Thursday
behind the cold front and building high pressure ridge. Temperatures
should recover to near seasonable normals by Friday as the upper
ridge moves over and the surface ridge shifts east bringing a return
southerly flow of winds and temperatures to the region.

Temperatures and dewpoints are reflected by a slightly adjusted
(temperatures move spatially northeast) Canadian numerical guidance
with some influence of the 12z GFS. Sky cover is primarily
influenced by the GFS and with the remaining sensible weather
elements a consensus blend.

Note: Although the forecast insolation and atmosphere will not have
changed appreciably from today`s package to Sunday`s, the time
offset of max/min temperature occurrence will be delayed by
approximately one hour. This will more accurately reflected in the
Sunday forecast package following the conversion to daylight savings
time.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

MVFR cigs and/or IFR vsbys possible at KCGI/KPAH through 14-15Z,
then VFR. MVFR cigs/vsbys possible at KEVV/KOWB through 14-15Z,
then VFR. Variable winds aob 5 knots at KCGI/KPAH will swing
around to the south southwest aob 6 knots after 21Z. At KEVV/KOWB
northerly winds aob 10 knots should become variable aob 5 knots
around 09-10Z, then swing around to the southwest aob 10 knots
after 21Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RJP
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...JP