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000
FXUS63 KPAH 302342 AAA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
542 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 542 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

Updated the aviation discussion for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 249 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

The 12Z models continued the trend ,started by last night`s 00Z
models, in warming our entire area up enough Saturday night and
Sunday to keep any significant snowfall north of the area. Some
guidance is even trying to take the Bootheel and portions of west
Kentucky into the lower 50s Sunday.

What a difference a day makes. Can we say that the models will
not shift back to a colder solution? No, but the persistent warm
signal over 3 consecutive model cycles certainly increases
confidence that it won`t make a huge shift to a significantly
colder solution.

To go along with the warmer solution, the models have increased
rainfall closer to an inch in the south, with 2/3" in the north.
The precipitable water in the GFS is close to an inch in the south
Sunday, which is around the 75th percentile compared to normal for
this time of year. Maybe we can put a dent in the drought across
west Kentucky.

It will be well into Sunday evening before the cold air begins to
surge through the area, but still most locations east of the
Mississippi River are likely to see a brief change over to very
light snow before the precipitation comes to an end. A dusting to
a half inch is about all that could be expected with the current
scenario. The half inch amounts would be most likely along the
northern and eastern border regions. As the cold air surges in
through the night, there will be some potential for black ice
issues for the Monday morning rush, but hopefully, the winds will
dry up any moisture before it can become a problem.

High clouds will overspread the area this evening and gradually
lower through the day Saturday. Figure that areas east of the
Mississippi will have plenty of time to radiate to or below the
lowest statistical guidance tonight. Highs Saturday will be tricky
as there will be thickening cloud cover over the region with
modest south winds. Increased highs a bit, but not to MAV levels.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 249 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

Models continue to show high pressure sliding across the middle
Mississippi and Ohio valleys Monday into Monday night.  Behind this
high, the 12z ECMWF and GEM still bring a cold front across the PAH
forecast area late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, but now
bring it through dry.  Latest GFS is now slower with the front,
bringing across our region Wednesday night into Thursday.  All
solutions thus result in dry conditions through Wednesday.  The GFS
then indicates precip chances Wednesday night and Thursday, while
ECMWF builds a large area of high pressure across the area for the
end of the work week.  The latest GFS run actually matches up pretty
well with the 00z ECMWF run, which leads to a latest GFS
preference.  With the low confidence, went with just slight chance
pops for rain and snow south, and snow north for Wednesday night,
then for Thursday went dry northwest, slight chance of rain/snow
central and rain south.  Timing of the cold front also ends up in
challenging temperatures forecasts, with numerical guidance having 5
to 10 degrees differences from each other.  Based on leaning toward
the GFS solution, leaned toward the latest MEX guidance.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 542 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

With the approach of a weather system out of the plains, clouds
will increase and lower through the period at all sites, although
conditions at all sites should remain VFR. Calm winds through the
first half of the period should pick out of the south to south
southwest AOB 7 knots after 15Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...JP