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000
FXUS63 KPAH 161845
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
144 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 144 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Updated aviation discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 134 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Nice, dry, seasonally cooler airmass will continue to settle
across the FA as High pressure strengthens its hold on the lower
Ohio river valley. Dew points already in the lower half of the
40s, will continue to plummet into the 30s by tonight. That sets
the stage, with clear sky/light wind, for some patchy frost to
possibly develop, mainly across the northern half of the FA and
other low lying/cooler terrain locations. We inherited a little
patchy frost mention, massaged the low temp forecast just a tad,
and continue with the overall theme inherited (patchy frost
north). At this time, do not see any collab or chatter on headline
mention, so will likewise continue the outlook in the HWO, as
inherited.

Daytime highs running in the 60s Today-Tuesday, will
climb toward climo norms each day, and be in the lower 70s for
Wednesday. This occurs as the high pressure shifts slowly
eastward, and return flow slys develop by mid week. Similarly,
tonight`s lows in the upper 30s/near 40 will be the coolest, with
40s commonplace both Tue and Wed nights.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Models show surface high pressure will be centered east of the PAH
forecast area late in the work week into next weekend.  Dry
conditions are expected through Saturday evening.  Flow around the
high will keep our region in southerly flow through the period. This
will give us unseasonably warm conditions through the extended, with
the warmest period Friday into Saturday night, with temperatures 5
to 10 degrees above normal.

GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement with the approach of a cold
front late Saturday night, though the ECMWF is a bit faster than the
the GFS.  Went with a compromise of the two, and included some
slight to low chance pops for showers in our far west and northwest
counties late Saturday night.  Due to the high to our east, the
front should make slow progress, so chances will slowly spread east
through the day Sunday, and kept our far east and southeast counties
dry Sunday afternoon.  The increase in clouds should give us highs
on Sunday a couple of degrees lower than Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 144 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

A ridge of surface high pressure will be in place over the PAH
forecast area throughout the TAF period. This will yield northerly
winds generally 10 knots or less, going calm or near calm overnight,
and picking up only a little out of the south to southeast by
midday. The lower trop should be dry enough to preclude nearly all
clouds.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...DB