Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 201122
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
622 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 622 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

Updated aviation section for 12z TAF package.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 231 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

A large area of high pressure will provide hot and humid
conditions through the remainder of the week. The heat advisory
will continue with afternoon heat indices topping out between 103
and 107 degrees. Warm and dry air aloft will prevent any
precipitation from developing through the end of the week. By the
weekend, the upper level ridge begins to flatten out a little
allowing afternoon chances of showers and thunderstorms to creep
back into the southern counties of west Kentucky by Saturday
afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 231 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

The mid level flow across the CONUS will start out in an amplified
western ridge/eastern trof pattern. The edge of a dome of higher
surface pressures and drier air will begin to move into the PAH
forecast area by late Sunday from the north; however a surface wave
developed by some medium range models just ahead of a mid level trof
axis may temporarily disrupt this trend. Therefore, atmospheric
instability should continue to provide some possibility of mainly
afternoon/evening scattered showers and tstms through the daylight
hours Monday (for the entire region Sunday, mainly the southern half
on Monday).

It appears the boundary of drier air will stall near the AR/TN state
lines by Monday night. This should result in a rapid diminishment of
PoPs Monday night. After that, the chance of an isolated shower or
tstm bubbling up somewhere in the region is non-zero, but very low,
due to anticyclonic flow and warmer air aloft on the periphery of
the ridge aloft as it temporarily expands eastward.

By Monday night, we should start enjoying dewpoints dipping into the
60s with lows 65 to 70 and highs in the 80s through midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 618 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

Any patchy fog will burn off quickly this morning. FEW050 cu will
be possible again today after 13z. Winds will be light today out
of the southwest. A clear sky and calm wind is expected again
tonight with scattered areas of light patchy fog producing MVFR
conditions.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.

IN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ML
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...ML



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