Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 091751

1251 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015

Issued at 1251 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015

A challenge today will be the cloud forecast; no big surprise there.
We may have to go more pessimistic with the trailing edge/clearing
line of the clouds. The sfc cold front is now through the PAH
forecast area, increasing stability. Any additional showers over
most of the area should be very light. The exception will be near
the TN border for a few hours this afternoon, where a burst of
moderate rain is possible, along with a lightning strike or two.

Also updated the aviation discussion.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 222 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015

Radar showed showers/isolated thunder to our west approaching.
Front still forecast to move through early today with trailing
mid level energy supporting lift for some shower and possible
thunder activity. Bumped up PoPs a bit, given rather high MOS
numbers. This despite relatively low QPF given marginal overall
moisture. Chances will decrease from NW to SE this afternoon,
ending by end of the day around the KHOP area. High pressure
follows with slightly cooler temperatures and dry weather Saturday
through Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 222 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015

Medium confidence in the extended.

Believe the the extended init along with most models persist in
advertising abundant moisture where it will not exist. This is
evident via current regional or national radar loop which detected
scattered showers and the lightning detection chart indicated
isolated strike or two. This is a great deal less coverage than the
models have been advertising for well over a week now. I believe
this will also come to fruition with Mondays and Fridays cold front
passage. For the aforementioned reasons have trimmed pops back about
five percent from the extended init. That combined with very limited
gulf moisture supply would equate to no mention of rain in the
extended at this time. I cant rule out there may be a sprinkle
around the area Monday but measurable rain is very much in question.

Highs and lows will be very close to normal throughout the extended
with highs in the 70s and lows near or just below 50.


Issued at 1251 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015

Light showers, with very little vsby restriction, will continue to
move across the TAF sites this afternoon. An MVFR cloud deck is
likely to develop/move swd across the region this afternoon. Low
clouds may linger well into the night at some airports, especially
south of the oh River, though confidence is not high on the length
of time. Nrly winds AOB 10 kts will continue behind a cold front.



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