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000
FXUS63 KPAH 161948
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
248 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

MODELS HAVE DONE A DECENT JOB DEPICTING THAT CONVECTION JUST NOW
INTO SRN IL/SW IN/AND SE MO WOULD BE DECREASING WITH TIME.
GENERALLY WILL STICK WITH LOWER POPS GIVEN THERE IS NO SPECTACULAR
SIGNALS SUGGESTING OTHERWISE THROUGH TONIGHT. IN FACT...NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE...THE SREF AND NAM SUGGEST CHANCES LOWER FOR CONVECTION
MONDAY THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AS WELL...SAVE FOR MAYBE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF SEMO INTO WRN KY. PLAN ON LOWERING POPS BUT MAINTAINING
LIKELY POPS ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SRN 1/2 OF THE AREA. CHANCES WILL
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH DRY WEATHER FORECAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. USED A BLEND OF SREF BIAS CORRECTED/NAM-GFS MOS AND
PREVIOUS FORECAST NUMBERS FOR TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...THE AXIS OF BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE CORE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS HIGH...SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS
HUMID WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE MID WEEK.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EAST FROM THE PLAINS. AS THIS OCCURS...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE LESSENS SOMEWHAT GIVEN THE RATHER INCONSISTENT
FORECAST OF SPORADIC CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEPICTED BY SOME MODELS...
THE GFS AND GEM IN PARTICULAR. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS RELATIVELY
CONSISTENT IN ITS DRY SIGNAL THROUGH LATE WEEK. CONSEQUENTLY...WHILE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE INFLUENCE OF THE BUILDING RIDGE
SHOULD HELP TO KEEP ANY ACTIVITY TO A MINIMUM.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
WARMING TREND LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS ABOVE THE 90 DEGREE
MARK ARE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND. BY SUNDAY...THIS MAY RESULT IN
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX READINGS NEAR THE CENTURY MARK.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 133 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

WILL ONLY CARRY VCTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING GIVEN UNCERTAINTY AND
CONVECTIVE TRENDS TO THE WNW SUGGEST A DIMINISHING ASPECT.
OTHERWISE JUST SOME SCT-BKN CLOUDS MAINLY MID AND HIGH AND LIGHT
WINDS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$