Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 191739

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1139 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

Issued at 1139 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 208 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

High pressure will move across the area later today through
tonight, with NW winds today becoming light tonight. Fog imagery
shows low clouds persisting east of a KMVN-KHOP line early this
morning. Short range model guidance shows little eastward movement
through 18z. After that, clearing should take place across our
east counties of SW Indiana/KY Pennyrile. It will be noticeably
cooler today across the area. with highs in the 40s.

Quiet weather will continue tonight through Tuesday night. Not
much in the way of cloud cover. Slightly warmer temperatures
Monday on the backside of the high as it moves on to the east. A
weak frontal boundary will move across the area Tuesday. No precip
as the airmass will remain quite dry. Mild once again Tuesday,
then cooling back down Tuesday night in the wake of the cold
frontal passage.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 208 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

As far as our part of the country is concerned, the medium range
model solutions were in good agreement with a dry forecast. An
amplified ridge west/trof east mid level pattern over the CONUS will
be in place midweek, with weak flow at the surface and aloft in the
PAH forecast area, in the wake of a recent cold frontal passage.
Surface winds should remain light under a surface ridge of high
pressure until early Fri. By then, winds at 850 are forecast to
begin to turn westerly (southwesterly at the surface) ahead of a
cold front which should sweep through our region early Sat. Deep
moist return flow will be virtually non-existent, so the fropa is
expected to be dry at this time.

Cool temps and dewpoints are expected to gradually moderate as the
week goes on, with temps starting out in the upper 30s Sat morning
and peaking in the 50s to around 60 Sat afternoon, depending on
location. Looking just beyond the current Day 7 (Sat), there should
be another noticeable drop in temps and dewpoints for the rest of
the weekend.


Issued at 1139 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

The forecasts are VFR. Surface high pressure will settle just to
the south of the region quickly this evening. Northwest winds will
gust into the teens for awhile this afternoon, before dying off
early this evening. A light south wind will develop around
sunrise, and then increase by mid-morning with some gusts into the
teens possible by the end of the period.




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