Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 290538 AAB
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1238 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1238 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

Updated the aviation discussion for the 06Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 319 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

It appears that the back/northwest edge of showers this afternoon
is near the 850mb cold front. Recent radar imagery indicates that
showers are on the increase from northeast Arkansas into west
Kentucky. Hopefully, this will be the last batch of showers. Tried
to move an area of likely pops east northeast through west
Kentucky into the early evening. Still cannot rule out a stray,
brief thunderstorm in the southern Pennyrile.

Otherwise, the models are in good agreement that surface high
pressure will build across the area tonight and eventually settle
overhead late Wednesday through Wednesday night. As the last of
the mid/upper-level trough finally shifts east of the area late
tonight, brilliant sunshine should be the rule in its wake Wednesday.
With a modest northwest breeze and cool air, it will look better
than it feels. Tried to nudge the current forecast toward the
consensus of guidance for lows tonight and highs Wednesday.

Am becoming more and more concerned about frost potential
throughout the area Wednesday night with dewpoints in the middle
30s and good radiational cooling expected. Maintained a mention of
patchy frost, but it may be more widespread. Just want to see how
low the dewpoints get Wednesday before being confident enough to
issue a frost advisory.

A compact storm system will dive southward across the region late
Thursday and Thursday night. There is only a very minor surface
reflection, so there will be little moisture return for the system
to work with. Forcing will not be strong enough to overcome the
dry air in the low-level Thursday afternoon, but cannot rule it
out Thursday night. Kept Thursday dry, but expanded the slight
chances of showers for Thursday night to cover most of the area
east of the Mississippi River.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 319 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

The model forecast signal for freezing temperatures still appears to
be on track for this weekend. The subtle model variability in
location of the surface high pressure center, as well as the
wind/sky cover fields, still make the coverage and timing of frost
during the same time period a little more difficult to assess at
this time.

We are still 80 or more hours out from any impact being felt with
respect to frost generation and/or pinning down the duration and
coverage of freezing temperatures. At this time,  will just use the
Hazardous Weather Outlook, and possibly social media to address
frost/freeze concerns for this weekend. The one-two punch of near
freezing temperatures should make a moderate impact on any remaining
exposed vegetation in the area.

Although near the end of the extended period, a consistent forecast
signal for another rain event exists later next Monday into Tuesday
night. The ECMWF and the wobbling solution from the GFS
deterministic runs suggest that a closed low circulation will
develop (or intensify sharply over AR/LA), slowing the progression
of the rain system across the WFO PAH forecast area. Regardless of
the eventual solution suggested by the ensembles, the probability of
rain still looks good for early next week. The stability fields
remain quite weak at this time, suggesting marginal elevated
instability. Attempted to depict a differential chance for
thunderstorm activity in the zone of greatest lift during this time
period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1238 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

In the wake of a cold frontal passage, VFR cloudiness will slowly
decrease from the west through the first half of the period. May
see MVFR/IFR fog at KCGI between 08-12Z, otherwise VFR conditions
will prevail. Calm to light and variable winds early will swing
around to the north northwest after 09Z, out of the northwest AOB
10 knots after 15Z, then back to AOB 5 knots after 00Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...JP







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