Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 131749 AAA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1249 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1249 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

Updated the aviation section for the 18Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 127 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

Another sweltering scorcher is on tap as dew points should remain
in the lower 70s with the pm mercury soaring into the lower to
perhaps middle 90s in some locales. This will make for another day
of heat indices flirting with the century mark.

Currently a cold front with associated convection stretches
across nrn ptns of IN, IL, MO. This front/storms will be moving
into at least the nrn reaches of our FA by the end of the day, but
some mid level warming ahead of it may preclude much activity from
getting going until tonight. That is when the front makes its more
robust appearance, with best convective chances along OH river
counties overnight. A SLGT risk svr continues, although it does
look like the best 0-6KM shear/instability is a little further
north/east up the OH valley.

With the front streched out somewhere along the lower OH river
valley at 12Z Monday, the driving upper Trof axis swings into play
Monday and kicks the front on thru. It may also develop a 2ndary
front/elevated convection til its passage, so pops continue into
Monday night. After that/fropa, cooler and drier air works into
the region in earnest for Tue-Tue night (and beyond).

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 152 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

High confidence early in the extended decreasing to medium late the
period.

Models continue to be in good agreement with high pressure building
into the heartland in the cold fronts wake. A north to northeast
flow at the surface will dominate through most of the week. This
will usher in cooler and much drier air for the area. By the end of
the week and into the weekend the flow becomes southeast and finally
southerly next weekend. This will allow for a slow return to more
seasonal conditions. The models are advertising an upper level
trough will phase with a surface low out of the southwest late in
the work week into the weekend. This is where the confidence
decreases. The chance of rain is so slight with qpf so light opted
to leave out pops attm. However will monitor closely for better run
to run continuity for possible slight chc introduction late in the
extended.

Continue with temperatures a good 10 degrees below normal for most
of the work week with a slow moderation back to near normal by the
weekend. RH values will also be unseasonable low for the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1249 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase through the
afternoon, evening, and overnight hours at all sites with the
approach of a surface trough. Could see MVFR cigs/vsbys in TSRA.
Precipitation chances should be coming to an end early Monday
morning. Southwest winds AOB 12 knots early will fluctuate mainly between
south and southwest AOB 6 knots after 00Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DH
LONG TERM...KH
AVIATION...JP






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