Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 190743
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
243 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Thu May 19 2016

Surface High pressure keeps it cool/dry over the Ohio Valley today
and the first half of tonight. But a developing trof of low
pressure will swing into play late tonight-tmrw. As upper energy
dives south in the Plains, an inverted trof of low pressure at the
surface works across the Tn valley tmrw. Model differences exist
as to the strength of surface low pressure riding along the
inverted trof, but both the GFS20 and NAM12 suggest enough
elevated instability works into our far southeastern most counties
tmrw to support a slgt chance of thunder there. The NAM12 is the
slightly more aggressive of the models, but we`ll really restrict
the chance to just the southeastern most two or three counties,
given even the NAM12 tracks a surface low to our south/east.

Pcpn comes to an end early Friday night as the aforementioned system
translates eastward. Saturday sees us in another post system
cool/troffy airmass so the cooler than seasonal temps continue
right on into the first half of the weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Thu May 19 2016

Northerly flow aloft will transition to a ridge over the PAH
forecast area, and high pressure will persist at the surface. This
will provide our region with dry clear conditions through Monday
evening.

After that, the medium range models agree that the sharp ridge aloft
will be suppressed by an expanding western CONUS longwave trof.
Difficult-to-time perturbations in the quasi-zonal flow should
increase the likelihood of rainfall for our region from time to time
starting mainly Tuesday. Available deep moisture seems a bit limited
despite a low level fetch out of the western Gulf during this time.
This may restrict the coverage of pcpn somewhat Tuesday and
Wednesday (Days 6 & 7). One thing that is more certain is that there
easily should be enough instability under this warm advection regime
for scattered tstms to develop. Wind shear parameters do not appear
to be conducive to severe weather at this time. The sun or moon may
pop out from time to time. There are some current deterministic
model indications that this may occur late Tuesday/early Wednesday.

Expect a slow warming trend through the extended period, ending with
warmer-than-average lows in the 60s and near average highs around 80.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 234 AM CDT Thu May 19 2016

Cool damp airmass underneath surface high with calm winds has led
patches of dense fog to develop, although manual inspection
reveals it`s shallow. Will carry BCFG for this mention with
prevailing restrictions to MVFR. Otherwise anticipate mainly just
high clouds, gradually increasing with time.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$



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