Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 231721

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1221 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Issued to update the aviation discussion for 18Z forecast.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016

High confidence of a dry forecast in the short term as a
reinforcing high pressure system moves southeast in the wake of a
cold frontal passage tonight. The front itself will be moisture
starved with little forcing aloft, so no precip is anticipated
with its passage. After a seasonably warm afternoon today in the
mid 70s, readings will settle back down closer to normal levels
Monday and Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016

A split flow regime aloft is indicated by the medium range models by
midweek, with a quick-moving shortwave moving across the Midwest. A
minor surface cold front will be associated with this feature, and
should provide enough lift for the development of showers and
eventually tstms across the PAH forecast area. Some capping is
forecast to occur just ahead of the front initially as the low level
jet ramps up. Thus, there should be a brief period of light shower
activity, followed by at least scattered tstm activity through
Wednesday evening. The area with the highest PoPs by Wednesday
evening is southern IL. Mostly showers will follow overnight and for
some time after sunrise Thursday. There should be a noticeable drop
in especially the afternoon highs Thursday with a northwesterly

Looking further on in the week, northwesterly flow aloft will take
over, and surface winds are expected to turn back to the south,
boosting afternoon temps modestly again, well into the 70s (for the
most part), with lows in the lower half of the 50s through Day 7
(Sat). The models are not in complete agreement with the timing,
strength and placement of impulses in the flow throughout most of
the extended period, but the blended forecast is virtually rain-free
for the PAH forecast area beyond Thursday morning.


Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Virtually cloud-free skies are forecast through the period, except
for possibly some few-sct high clouds. The main aviation weather
element will be wind, which could become a little gusty this
afternoon. Gusts should be from the southwest 15 to 20 knots on
the back side of surface high pressure over the Gulf Coast states.
A weak moisture starved cold front will move through tonight,
shifting winds to the northwest late tonight and then they become
northeasterly by Monday morning.



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