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000
FXUS63 KPAH 130812
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
312 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

The low clouds are shrinking quickly about the Wabash River, and
should clear the entire area by daybreak. It took the RAP some
time to lock onto the clearing trend from the east in addition to
the south and west, but most recent runs have a good handle on it
and were followed for the sky trends early this morning.

With clearing skies over much of the area overnight, fog formation
is a major concern. KCGI has been bouncing around quite a bit in
the last hour or so, but there is a tendency for a light southeast
wind at least periodically throughout the region, so widespread
dense fog is not a cinch. Will have some patchy and areas of fog
in the grids, but that is mainly in the east and south where winds
are more likely to be calm. Will continue to monitor for possible
Special Weather Statement or Dense Fog Advisory issuance closer
to sunrise.

We are still on track for a warm up to above normal levels today,
but guidance has seemed to trend downward a bit for highs. South
winds will increase on Saturday and lead to temperatures in the
mid and upper 80s. There has been concern over the past few nights
that the winds Saturday would be greater than advertised and that
is becoming more obvious this morning. Increased southwest winds
ahead of the front on Saturday and Saturday night and northwest
winds behind it Sunday. We should see sustained winds 10 to 20 mph
with gusts 20-25 mph on both sides of the front. Winds Saturday
night may actually be stronger than on Saturday.

The 00Z models continue to trend faster and drier with the cold
front late Saturday night through Sunday. There is still some
potential for precipitation to reach our northwest border regions
by 12Z Sunday, but it will be trying to dry up as it approaches.
The front will surge through the area Sunday morning, and we will
have good chance PoPs in the morning near and behind it. By Sunday
afternoon there will only be a slight chance in the southeast
with no QPF.

Instability is difficult to find due to a lack of steep mid-level
lapse rates. NAM and GFS soundings eek out a sliver of positive
area with parcels based around 850mb, but the parcels will barely
reach the freezing level, so lightning is not expected. SPC`s Day
3 outlook is in support of keeping thunderstorms out of our area
Sunday.

Gusty northwest winds will quickly spread much cooler and drier
air across the region. Highs on Sunday will be near or below
normal over most of the area. Even with plenty of sunshine in the
afternoon, highs near KMVN may not reach 65 degrees. Lows Sunday
night will span the lower half of the 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

Models show surface high pressure will settle across the middle
Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys early in the work week.  Winds
will remain northerly on Monday, which will help keep temperatures
several degrees below seasonal normals.  The center of the high will
shift to our east by Tuesday, and winds will shift to the south.
This will cause temperatures to moderate to near seasonal Tuesday
and Tuesday night, with readings a little above seasonal normals for
Wednesday and Thursday.  Relative humidity time heights show very
dry air in place over the region through the period, so we will
should have clear nights and sunny to mostly sunny days.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017

An area of MVFR cigs covered all taf sites as of late this evening.
This large patch of clouds has been slowly shrinking from the south
and east at about 5 knots. At the current rate of movement, the
clouds should clear kcgi and kpah by about sunrise. The clouds in
the kevv/kowb areas may clear out briefly overnight, then possibly
move back in early in the morning. Where skies do clear before
sunrise, fog will likely develop. Some IFR conditions are still
forecast at kcgi. All locations will become VFR by Friday afternoon.
Winds will be light, mainly from the southeast.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...MY