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000
FXUS63 KPAH 280437 AAB
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1137 PM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2016

Updated the AVIATION section for the 06Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2016

It appears now that the closed upper storm system will have more
of an impact on our region than previously thought. The 12Z models
are in good agreement in wobbling it around the Ohio Valley in the
vicinity of Louisville and Cincinnati Wednesday through 12Z
Friday. The end result is that rounds of showers will accompany
impulses rotating around the low from Wednesday through Thursday
night. They should primarily impact southwest Indiana and the
Pennyrile, but areas all the way back to the Mississippi River may
not be out of reach.

As the low descends toward the region Wednesday, a major impulse
will push a cold front through the region, along with a good
chance of showers, and possibly even a few thunderstorms. This is
a very strong signal in the models, but decided to cap PoPs at 50%
to avoid too drastic of a change to the forecast. The best PoPs
will be in the late morning in the EVV Tri State. The front will
clear the entire area by 21Z, and that should mark the end of any
precipitation chances in the Pennyrile. Not sure how much
instability there will be, but cannot rule out a few lightning
strikes.

Behind this initial impulse and cold front, forecast confidence
decreases significantly in the timing of impulses and areas of
showers through our region. Will keep 20-30% PoPs confined mainly
to the EVV Tri State and the Pennyrile Thursday and Thursday
night. Given the proximity of the upper low, cannot completely
rule out a thunderstorm or two, but model soundings do not look
that favorable at this time.

Looks like most of the area may have seen their coolest
temperatures this morning. The west and northwest winds and
increasing cloud cover, especially in the east, will help hold
temperatures up each night. Generally stayed on the warm side of
guidance through the period for lows. Highs will be highly
dependent on the persistence of clouds and precipitation both
Wednesday and especially on Thursday. Played the consensus card
for highs both days.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2016

Models have been more and more aggressive with the last few runs
with regards to moisture, clouds and precipitation being a bit more
plentiful during the first part of the extended forecast period. The
GFS and Canadian are falling more in line with the ECMWF in
positioning the upper low further west, allowing a better part of
our area to see some of its effects.

An upper level low, currently situated over the northern Great
Lakes, will travel south and be situated just to the east of our CWA
by Friday. Moisture will be most plentiful east of the Mississippi
River on Friday and isolated to scattered light showers will be a
good bet especially in the eastern half of the CWA (southwest IN,
Pennyrile region of west KY). The upper low does not move too much
during the following 24 hours but tries to slide to the northwest a
bit. That means much of the same weather for Friday night, which is
a little bit slower than previous runs.

However, by Saturday, we finally see the low scoot northward but it
will probably take most of the day to do so, therefore much of the
same type of weather should be expected...clouds and scattered
showers, although the main chances for some showers will be confined
to mainly the Wabash Valley/EVV Tri State and the Pennyrile region
of west KY. Temperatures both on Friday and Saturday will stay in
the upper 60s to lower 70s, warmer readings in SEMO.

By Saturday night, all models tend to agree that the threat for
shower activity will be waning although the clouds may be slow to
fade. A weak upper level ridge will build in by Sunday night into
Monday which will bring drier and warmer weather. We should see
places reach close to 80 degrees on Monday. This upper ridge moves
east on Tuesday allow southwesterly flow to set up which will mean
even warmer temperatures should result (lower 80s). But right now,
any additional wet weather will hold off for a while.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2016

VFR conditions expected at all sites through the period, however with
the passage of a surface trough/front could see VCSH at KEVV/KOWB
between 14-19Z. West southwest winds AOB 5 knots overnight will
pick up out of the northwest AOB 10 knots behind the passage of
the trough/front.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...JP