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000
FXUS63 KPAH 110430
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1130 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2014

Updated aviation forecast only.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday night/...
Issued at 254 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2014

The main theme during the short term will be slowly increasing
warmth and humidity as surface high pressure moves off to the
east. Thunderstorms still cannot be ruled out Friday night through
Saturday night...mainly along and north of a kmdh/kowb line.

As far as the daily details...
Tonight looks mainly clear and cool after diurnal cumulus fades
away. The cirrus shield associated with the mcs over western
Arkansas should exit southeast MO and western KY this evening.
Several hours of ideal radiational cooling late tonight should
allow temps to fall close to mos guidance values.

On Friday...weak southerly return flow will develop over
Missouri. The increase in low level moisture and instability will
likely result in increased diurnal cumulus as far east as the
Mississippi Valley. Elsewhere...humidity will remain quite low for
this time of year. Friday night should become more humid as the
boundary layer flow becomes south to southwest across the region.

On Saturday and Saturday night...500 mb ridging will strengthen
and expand northward into the Ozarks and Lower Ohio Valley. This
mid level ridge should keep our region mainly dry. There is still
a small chance that isolated storms could develop...primarily
during peak heating in the late afternoon. Moderate to strong
instability is expected late in the day into the early evening.
Will maintain slight chance pops mainly along and north of
interstate 64...closer to the northern periphery of the high.
Temps and humidity levels will be a little higher than usual for
this time of year but not near advisory levels.

.LONG TERM.../Sunday through Thursday/
Issued at 254 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2014

No major changes required in the long term portion of the forecast,
only a few tweaks here and there.

At the very beginning of the period, the approach of a bona fide
cold front, northwest flow aloft, and decent low level moisture is
expected to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms over the
northern half of our CWA.

As the aforementioned front draws closer (Sunday night) and
eventually crosses the region (Monday), precipitation coverage and
chances will increase with the best chances area wide Monday. No
severe weather is expected with the frontal passage at this time.

Behind the front precipitation chances should begin to diminish from
northwest to southeast Monday night into Tuesday. Chances on Tuesday
should be limited to the far southeast sections of our CWA.

As high pressure overspreads the region in the wake of the front,
lower temperatures and dewpoints will produce very comfortable
relative humidities for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2014

VFR conditions will prevail through the 06Z TAF period. Winds, while
light, will have an erly component overnight as sfc high pressure
slowly loses its grip on the PAH forecast area. It appears at this
time that there will be enough wind just off the sfc to prevent
overnight vsby restrictions due to fog, especially in the wrn half
of the region. Light winds Fri will take on a srly component, but
may be quite variable in the ern half of the region.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM....JP
AVIATION...DB