National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KPAH 291134
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
634 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 629 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

For aviation section only.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

Unseasonably cool pattern has settled back into the region as yet
another another deep amplitude/closed off upper low has settled
into the Hudson Bay region of se Canada. Main issue today once
again may lie with degree of cloud cover (and hence temps) east of
the MS River. Forecast soundings and time/height graphics suggest
a possible broken strato cu cloud deck forming before noon. As a
result, will beef up cloud cover a bit more and keep high temps
in the upper 70s to near 80 n/e areas. May challenge record lows
again tonight as clouds dissipate and winds decouple, tho records
are a bit cooler than the ones this morning. Blocking pattern will
keep things dry and relatively cool right through the remainder
of the short term. Will stay fairly close to MAV/MET MOS temps
through the period.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

The impressive, almost semi-permanent cold core low centered along
the common Ontario/Quebec Province border will remain the dominant
feature through the extended portion of this forecast package. With
only minor changes in thermal thicknesses expected, temperature will
remain noticeably below normal, with highs in the lower and middle
80s.

At the surface and aloft, the WFO PAH forecast area will be
entrenched in a cooler and drier northwest flow.

There appears to be a dominant channeled vorticity axis that will
run through the Dakotas, southeast through the Tennessee Valley
Friday through Saturday. This will enhance the baroclinic zone along
the gradient of the eastern Canadian Provinces closed low,
supporting decent isentropic lift into the area. Isolated to briefly
scattered upright convection will be a possibility over the WFO PAH
forecast area during this time. The "rain" faucet should close off
once the energy in the trough is congealed into a mean trough axis,
east of the WFO PAH forecast axis, leaving only below normal
temperatures.

The suite of medium range guidance seems to have a similar evolution
of systems in the extended, so utilized a blend of guidance for
sensible weather elements. As expected, the CIPS Analog Threat
guidance for the aforementioned period suggests a minimum for severe
weather concerns. The main focus will be on temperatures during this
time frame.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 629 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

High pressure will bring VFR conditions through the period. Could
be 4000-5000 ft bkn cigs will be possible during the late morning
and afternoon...esp at KEVV/KOWB sites.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GM
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...GM