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000
FXUS63 KPAH 042352
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
552 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 551 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE 18Z NAM AND GFS HAVE OVER 2/3" OF LIQUID QPF 00Z-06Z NEAR
PADUCAH...AND LOOKING UPSTREAM THE MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO STILL BE STREAMING INTO SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS. LOOKS LIKE ITS GOING TO GET EVERY BIT AS DEEP AS
FORECAST AND PROBABLY DEEPER NEAR AND JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO
RIVER.

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

WINTER STORM UNDER WAY HAS BEEN UNFOLDING VERY CLOSE TO WHAT WE
ENVISIONED. STARTING FIRST THING THIS MORNING PRECIPITATION BEGAN
STEADILY CHANGING FROM RAIN TO SLEET TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING PRECIPITATION HAD CHANGED
OVER TO SNOW AND/OR SLEET OVER ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR
CWA.

THE CHANGEOVER TO FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OUR CWA WITH ALL AREAS CHANGED
OVER TO SNOW AROUND 6 PM OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR CWA SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE GREATEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHILE ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF
WILL BE THIS EVENING AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

BASED ON THE LATED MODEL DATA...NOT CONVINCED THERE WILL BE ANY
APPRECIABLE SNOWFALL OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA AFTER
09Z...BUT JUST IN CASE THINGS DON`T PAN OUT THAT WAY...WILL LET IT
RUN ITS COURSE FOR NOW.

MAY SEE SCATTERED FLURRIES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY IN THE WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE BUT NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. BEYOND THAT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH SLOWLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  SOUTHWEST WINDS ALONG WITH SOME SUNSHINE WILL
BEGIN A GRADUAL WARM UP.  TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOWER 40S
SATURDAY, AND THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S SUNDAY.  THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY
MOVE NORTHEAST, AND THIS WILL OVERALL KEEP OUR REGION IN WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO MID WEEK.  WE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SEE QUITE A
BIT OF SUNSHINE.  TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE EACH DAY,
WITH READINGS FINALLY REACHING NEAR SEASONAL READINGS MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT, AND ACTUALLY CLIMBING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS TUESDAY
AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY HIGHS COULD REACH AROUND 60
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 551 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

WENT WITH PREVAILING HEAVY SNOW AT ALL SITES FOR MOST OF THE
EVENING. IT WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FIGURE THAT MVFR SNOW
MAY LINGER THROUGH 12Z AT KOWB AND KPAH. WILL NOT BE SURPRISED IF
WE LOSE OUR LOWER CEILINGS FOR AWHILE AFTER THE SNOWS DEPART...BUT
KPAH AND KOWB ARE MOST LIKELY TO HANG ONTO THEM. IF THEY DO GO
AWAY THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF THEM REDEVELOPING BY LATE
MORNING. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING A BIT OVERNIGHT. SHOULD STAY NEAR
10KTS THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR ILZ075>078-
     080>094.

MO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MOZ076-086-087-
     100-107>112-114.

IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR INZ081-082-
     085>088.

KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...JP
AVIATION...DRS