Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 202342
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
642 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 642 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 240 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Seasonably chilly high pressure will take over for this time
period. With nearly clear conditions expected, the dry air will
likely warm to the warmer end of the forecast model envelope. Night
times may be a little cooler than guidance tho. Could actually be
some light frost by the mid week time frame in normally colder
locations.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Models show an upper level ridge over the region will gradually
break down Thursday. This will allow a weak trof to move across the
middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys Thursday night into
Friday.  Latest ECMWF produces a smattering of minimal QPF in our
area, but the previous ECMWF along with the latest GFS and GEM keep
our region dry.  Dry weather will continue into the weekend as huge
ridge of high pressure builds over a majority of the U.S.  The ridge
will gradually slide east of our area by early next week, but the
dry conditions should persist into Monday.

Winds will shift to the south Thursday, and temperatures will
gradually warm into the weekend.  Slightly below to near seasonal
readings can be expected Thursday and Friday, then temperatures will
level off a few degrees above normal for the weekend into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 642 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A weak cold front is attempting to push through the TAF sites
early this evening. Would not rule out a stray light shower at
KOWB until the front passes there in the next 2 hours. Behind the
front, skies will be clear with light north northwest winds. Winds
may die off enough at KCGI for some shallow fog development there
overnight. North winds will pick up a bit with mixing Tuesday
afternoon, but gusts should be very limited. A decent cu field
will develop by afternoon. It should be thickest at KEVV and KOWB,
where a ceiling condition is not out of the question. It appears
that the solid ~6kft clouds near Lake Michigan will pass to the
north and east, so will not forecast ceilings at this time.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...MEFFERT
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...DRS






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