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000
FXUS63 KPAH 142251
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
551 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 547 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017

Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017

Looks as though the main weather story in the near term will be
the return of heat and humidity to the region. By Wednesday
afternoon, heat indices may be running up close to 100 degrees
with surface dewpoints in the mid 70s at many locations. As winds
become more southerly, overall moisture will also remain quite
high, though highest PWATs should remain to the north and south
of our area. Cannot rule out isolated showers/thunderstorms during
the heat of the day, but many locations will likely stay rainfree
until a stronger short wave nears the MS River Valley later
Wednesday night.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017

Models in good agreement taking a cold front slowly across the PAH
forecast area Thursday into Thursday night.  We should some good
chances of showers and thunderstorms through the time period.  Went
with good chance to likely pops through the day Thursday.  Northwest
and west portions of the area should be dry by Thursday night, with
showers and storms ending from northwest to southeast during the
overnight hours.  Weak surface high pressure will give us dry
conditions Friday into Friday evening.

Models then show an upper level trof moving across the middle
Mississippi and lower Ohio River valleys Saturday into Saturday
night.  GFS produces some widespread light QPF, while ECMWF and
Canadian produce only a little QPF in our southwest counties.  Due
to lacking moisture, just went with some slight chances for showers
and storms across the area.  Went with dry conditions Saturday night
into Sunday night as an upper level ridge builds to our west.

On Monday, models go back and forth with some weak impulses riding
the upper level ridge.  Went with just some slight chance pops in
our northwest counties on Monday afternoon, but confidence is low
either way right now.  Will need to continue to watch model trends.

Temperatures through the extended will generally be near seasonal
normals with fairly humid conditions.  Dew points will be in the
lower to middle 70s Thursday, and in the middle to upper 60s after
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 547 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017

Rich plume of low level moisture still advecting northeastward
across area, with dew points in lower 70s and cloud bases ranging
from MVFR south, to low/mid VFR north. Models all continue the
northeast lift of moisture/warm front and numerical guidance
clears/socks in overnight. However satellite shows no signs of
this soon, so will run with inherited MVFR restricted vsbys
developing and monitor thru next press time to see whether we
saturate down the column more completely, or trend in that
direction.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$