Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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178
FXUS63 KPAH 220830
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
330 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 107 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Temps ran into the lower 90s Thursday pm, and with High pressure
holding firm, see no reason why we won`t achieve those readings
again today. As a result, bumped today`s highs up a degree or two
from general guidance nos. The weekend looks hot too, above
seasonal norms at least, if not quite the levels of Thu-Fri, given
the longer lived slightly backed lower trop winds yielding a more
easterly input component.

Some models suggest isolated heat of day storms, the spectral GFS
moreso than the NAM. But the best agreed upon Pop day most likely
appears to be Sunday, and since we`ve carried Pops at least
Sunday pm for a few packages now, we`ll keep that going with this
combined model support/persistence strategy take. Best chance of
that isolated shower/storm, likely being SEMO, or southwest most
parts of the FA where the turn around flow appears to be trying to
develop/working around the strength of the gradually eastward
shifting High, and north of developing Low pressure aloft in the
lower Mississippi river valley.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

The main forecast focus in the extended period is the transition to
much cooler temps and the chances of rain associated with the
transition.

The eastern U.S. 500mb ridge continues to slowly break down early in
the new week. This will trend our temps downward a bit in the still
quite warm and humid air mass. By Wednesday a surface cold front
will push southeast through the FA bringing the major transition to
cooler temps along with increased rain chances, especially over
southeast MO and S IL. There is some difference in model solutions
Thursday of rain vs. no rain but for now will maintain a lingering
chance of showers/thunderstorms into Thursday, trending to only the
southern part of W KY by Thursday afternoon. Either way, rainfall
amounts should average very light with this event, at least outside
of any concentred thunderstorm activitry.

Much cooler temps are still on track for Thursday and thereafter
with highs only in the mid to upper 70s Thursday along with surface
dewpoints in the 50s vs. the 60s through the first half of the
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 107 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

It`s a VFR flight forecast save for patchy fog potentially
yielding early am/sunrise restrictions to vsbys, where it
develops. Quick burnoff is anticipated with return to full VFR
from mid morning.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$



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