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000
FXUS63 KPAH 140445
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1145 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

UPDATED THE AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL PROVIDE
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE PAH FORECAST AREA INTO MID WEEK.
SUBSTANTIALLY WARMER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S...WITH LOWS IN THE
LOWER 50S TONIGHT AND LOWER 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF APPROACHES OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
NAM...SREF AND GFS TRY TO BRING LIGHT QPF INTO NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PAH FA ON WEDNESDAY...BUT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY TIME HEIGHTS INDICATE MINIMAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AVAILABLE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIP
AWAY FROM OUR REGION UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TAKE A DIVE OVER TOP A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD. EACH CARRIES WITH IT AN ATTENDANT DAILY CHC PCPN IN THE
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR MASS THAT RESULTS FROM ITS PRESENCE THRU
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

TWO BEST CHANCE TIME PERIODS EXIST FOR WET WEATHER. THE FIRST SUCH
IS WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WHEN AN OPEN SHORT WAVE LIFTS OUT OF
THE SRN PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY. RESULTING
OUTFLOW/LINGERING BOUNDARY FROM THIS SYSTEM AS WELL AS ACTIVE
PERTURBATIONS TOPPING THE RECOVERING RIDGE PAINTS ADDITIONAL
QPF/POPS ACROSS THE AREA THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

A PAUSE IN THE PATTERN IS NOTED BY LATER SAT PM-SAT
NIGHT-SUNDAY...WHEN THE RIDGE MOVES EAST AS THE NEXT LARGER SCALE
TROUGH TAKES SHAPE IN THE PLAINS STATES. IT IS POISED TO DRIVE A
COLD FRONT TOWARD THE FA BY LATE SUNDAY PM...AND ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY AS UPPER HEIGHTS FALL WITH THE BROADER TROF`S
LIFT INTO THE LAKES REGION. THIS IS OUR 2ND BEST CHANCE TIME PERIOD
FOR WET WEATHER. THIS COULD ALSO BE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGER
STORMS BASED ON THE UPPER JET CORES INTRO ROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROF/VIGOR OF THE HEIGHT FALLS BUT IT`S TOO FAR OUT FOR NOW TO FOCUS
ON WITH CERTAINTY...SOMETHING TO WATCH/MONITOR.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. MAYBE MID CLOUDS
KEVV/KOWB. SSE WINDS MOSTLY AOB 5 KTS. UPPED WINDS SLIGHTLY ON
TUESDAY AS BUFR SOUNDING MOMENTUM TRANSFER OUTPUT SUGGESTS SOME
GUSTS JUST OVER 20 KTS LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. CU RULE DATA AND
SOUNDINGS NOT REALLY SUGGESTING CU. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES
TUESDAY. MAINLY CLEAR TUESDAY EVENING WITH SSW WINDS LEVELING
OFF AROUND 10 KTS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$