Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 262021
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
321 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 321 pm CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

The upper ridge that has been the primary cause of the oppressive
conditions over the past week or so will remain in place over the
area for the most part for a couple more days.

Precipitation chances will begin to increase over the northern and
northwest sections of our CWA on Wednesday as a back door cold front
makes its way toward the region. Even with the aforementioned
boundary forecast to drop into the far northern portions of our CWA
Wednesday night, with lack of heating and instability, think
precipitation coverage will be limited to areas in the immediate
vicinity of the boundary.

Thursday the boundary is forecast to sag a bit farther into the
northeast sections of our CWA, so precipitation chances should be
best over the northeast half of our CWA. With a lack of deep
moisture and diurnal heating/instability, think Thursday night will
be dry.

Decided to extend our Heat Advisory for another 24 hours for the
entire CWA. Not as confident that we will see 100-105 heat indices
over the southeast sections of our CWA Wednesday afternoon, but will
issue for the entire area anyway. Don`t forsee many changes to
dewpoints in the immediate future, but beyond Wednesday, increased
cloud coverage and increased precipitation chances should keep heat
indices below the century mark.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 321 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

The operational GFS is still a little faster than the ECMWF/GEM,
especially after Fri, with the mid level shrtwv trof and sfc features
that will be moving across the central Plains at the beginning of
the extended forecast period. The PAH forecast area will be in the
warm sector by Fri, allowing mostly clear skies and possibly some
lower dewpoint air mixing down. Highs should be in the lower 90s.

There could be some shower and tstm activity in srn IL/sern MO Fri
night, but PoPs ramp up Sat as srly low level flow brings in more
moisture ahead of the low somewhere in the upper Midwest. By Sat
night, the system should begin to shear out a bit, but there should
be enough energy in the cyclonic wswrly flow aloft to encourage at
least scattered shower and tstm development through the day Sunday.
The sfc boundary associated with the upper Midwest low is not
progged to make it to our region. Thus, by the end of the weekend,
the atmospheric column should begin to dry out a bit under mostly
zonal flow aloft. There will probably be enough instability
available for more of an isolated, to perhaps scattered in the east,
coverage of convection through Mon. After a pcpn reprieve for most
of the region Mon night, the med range models are suggesting another
frontal system may be on our doorstep by Tue. Isolated showers and
tstms are forecast for then.

It will still be warm and rather humid through the period, but not
to heat advisory criteria. We are now entering a climatological
period where a gradual fall-off of temps should be expected. Sunday
will be the coolest day with highs only in the middle 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 321 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

Aside from IFR cigs/vsbys at KCGI and MVFR cigs/vsbys at
KPAH/EVV/KOWB between 08-13Z, VFR conditions will continue through
the period as high pressure aloft maintains control of the
region`s weather. Winds will either be calm or light and variable
through the period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Wednesday FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Wednesday FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.

IN...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Wednesday FOR INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Wednesday FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...JP
LONG TERM/FIRE WX...DB







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