Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 240737
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
137 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 1253 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

Strong warm air advection with increasing wind fields out of the
south today will make possible scattered shower activity. The
atmos remains capped for the most part, but as the front draws
into the area at/near peak heating, it will be encountering a
ribbon of surface dew points into the mid/upr 50s arcing across
the eastern third of the FA, when MU CAPES in the 0-1KM layer
flirt toward 1K J/KG. SLGT Risk Svr remains outlooked for our
north and east during this time frame, effectively 21z-03z and
perhaps mostly the first half of that window. Strong wind fields
and shear make damaging winds the primary svr wx threat/hazard.
Timing of and overall columnar moisture appears to be the primary
limiting factor to deeper convection, with better chances just off
to our north and east.

Another record or near record breaking day is possible with regard
to temperatures, as highs top out in the 70s again ahead of the
front.

Today`s Records:
PAH... 73 in 2000 (forecast high of 74).
EVV... 72 in 2000 (forecast high of 74).
CGI... 73 in 2000 (forecast high of 73).
We could see upper 70s in parts of our south/east, esp near HOP.

After fropa, we`ll see pops diminish by 03Z, and gone by 06Z, with
colder/drier air coming in thereafter. Saturday highs are getting
colder each run and will be some 30F degrees cooler than Friday.
Similarly, Lows in the 20s Saturday night will remind us it is
still February.

Fire danger is heightened this afternoon over the Missouri Ozarks,
where gusty winds in the 20s mph will combine with relative
humidity minimums in the 30s percentile. Fire danger is more
widespread across the area Saturday afternoon, as winds average in
the teens mph and relative humidity values drop into the 30s
percentile across the entire area.

After High pressure sweeps across the Mid South Saturday, and sets
off to the east, return flow southerlies will re-establish Sunday.
This will generate some warm air advection rain chances returning
to the forecast late Sunday into Sunday night. At this writing,
it appears boundary layer temps remain warm enough to keep the
pcpn entirely liquid over our FA, although we wouldn`t be shocked
if some onset sleet or graupel occurred, particularly for northern
areas.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 137 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

Forecast confidence from Monday through Thursday remains below
average with less than optimal agreement among forecast models and
substantial run-to-run fluctuation.

The overall large scale pattern will feature southwesterly flow
during the first half of the week as a mean longwave trough shifts
east from the Pacific coast into the nation`s Heartland by mid week.
Perturbations progressing through the southwesterly flow pattern
will result in at least a couple chances of showers--and perhaps a
few thunderstorms--during this time.

While the larger picture has remained substantially unchanged for
the past few days, timing of the individual perturbations and low
level synoptic features has been quite varied among the models--the
GFS in particular. For instance, the latest 00Z run brings the mid
week cold front through Tuesday evening, which is quite a bit faster
than the ECMWF, Canadian, and prior GFS runs. Whether or not this
signals a trend or is merely an outlier remains to be seen.

The greater majority of recent guidance suggests the better chance
of showers and eventually thunderstorms should impact the forecast
area from the latter half of Tuesday into the first part of
Wednesday as the cold front makes passage. Models are at least in
agreement that the bulk of the rain potential should be east of the
area by Wednesday night and Thursday as passage of the long wave
trough places the region back into a cooler and drier northwest flow
aloft.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1253 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

South winds will average near/in the teens kts this morning with
gusts into the 20s kts at times, then increase as the gradient
tightens during the front`s approach today. While VFR CIGS and
VSBYS are anticipated, temporary restrictions might be possible
along/ahead of the front in late pm/early evening convection.
After fropa, winds will shift to the northwest, with all pcpn
effectively ended by midnight.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$



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