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000
FXUS63 KPAH 171649
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1149 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1009 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

Quick update to reflect faster rise in surface temperatures
and higher surface wind velocities later this morning and
this afternoon. The 00z Thursday run of the ARW version of the
4 km NAM-WRF is best depicting the transition of temperature and
wind fields.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

South winds and sunshine through the morning hours will lead to a
nice warm up today, with high temperatures in the middle to upper
60s. Models and numerical guidance indicate increasing clouds late
today and tonight ahead of an approaching weak cold front. Models
continue to trend downward on QPF with the passage of the front.
NAM keeps the entire PAH forecast area dry, while GFS and ECMWF
show just a hundredth here and there late tonight and Friday
morning. Have dropped pops back area wide to slight chances late
tonight, and kept slights going for just our eastern half of
counties Friday morning.

The passage of the front will have no affect on temperatures, with
guidance indicating temperatures on Friday actually a couple of
degrees warmer than today. Temperatures will remain seasonal into
Friday night, then climb to slightly above seasonal readings in
the lower to middle 70s for Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

At the beginning of the long term period high pressure at the
surface and weak ridging aloft should make for dry conditions and
near normal temperatures Saturday night.

The approach of a surface front and attendant H5 short wave may
bring precipitation chances into the far western sections of our CWA
by late Sunday afternoon, however models still not in the best
agreement on this. Precipitation chances are only expected to make
it about halfway across the CWA Sunday night, but the best chance
for widespread precipitation still looks better Sunday night and
Monday as these features track across the region. Instability
parameters still expected to be strong enough to continue the
mention of thunder Sunday afternoon, Sunday night, and Monday.

Precipitation chances will slowly diminish from west to east Monday
night as the upper trough passes, however showers on the back side
of the aforementioned system may linger over the far southeast
sections of our CWA Tuesday morning. Still low confidence in this
period due to continual model disagreement.

Temperatures near normal (low 70s) at the beginning of the period
are expected to warm to above normal (upper 70s) by the end of the
period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1149 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

Adjustments for 18z Thursday TAF issuance mainly addresses transition
from unrestricted VFR clouds and wind gusts during maximum midday
insolation and mixing, onward to VFR ceilings in advance of
approaching frontal boundary from the northwest. Additional groups
were introduced for variation in wind direction and a small period
of light rain potential at KPAH and KOWB. Otherwise, VFR
conditions expected through period despite approaching front.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...RST
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...Smith