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000
FXUS63 KPAH 041750
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1150 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST FOCUS REMAINS THE SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER
EVENT ON TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

BUT STARTING WITH THE ONGOING RAIN...PRECIPITATION TOTALS THUS FAR
HAVE WORKED OUT CLOSE TO WHAT WE WERE THINKING. OVERALL...RADAR
ESTIMATES OF RAINFALL HAVE GENERALLY BEEN IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH
RANGE IN A BAND ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. HEAVIER RAINS APPEAR TO BE
FOCUSING FURTHER TO THE SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH WOULD
IMPACT PRIMARILY WESTERN KENTUCKY AND FAR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. AS A
RESULT...WE WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH GOING THROUGH NOON IN THIS
REGION.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT...THE NEXT BLAST OF
ARCTIC AIR IS ON TRACK EARLY THIS MORNING. AS TEMPERATURES FALL
THROUGH THE 30S AND INTO THE 20S...RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET AND THEN TO SNOW THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THE
MAIN QUESTION CONTINUES TO BE HOW LONG DOES THE SLEET PERSIST
BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW. GIVEN THE OVERNIGHT MODEL INPUT...IT
APPEARS AS THOUGH THE ANSWER TO THAT QUESTION IS SEVERAL HOURS.
THE WARMER MID LEVELS OF THE NAM NOW HAVE THE SUPPORT OF THE
RAP...AND EVEN THE GFS HAS TRENDED SOMEWHAT SLOWER WITH THE
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW...THOUGH IT IS STILL COLDER THAN THE OTHER
MODELS.

GIVEN THE LATEST MODEL DATA...WE HAVE SLOWED DOWN NOT ONLY THE
CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...BUT ALSO THE
TRANSITION TO SNOW. IN FACT...THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MIXED
PRECIPITATION MAY NOT EVEN REACH THE OHIO RIVER UNTIL LATE
MORNING...AND IT MAY BE MID AFTERNOON BEFORE IT REACHES THE
HOPKINSVILLE AREA. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD HAVE CHANGED
OVER TO SNOW BY EVENING...BUT IT MAY BE MID EVENING BEFORE IT IS
COMPLETELY SNOW NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER. PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE IN THE FORM OF SNOW TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

OUR SNOW AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO REFLECT A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE
AND WPC. INTERESTINGLY...EVEN THROUGH THE SLEET WILL LIKELY CUT
DOWN ON ACCUMULATION TODAY...THE SNOW TONIGHT IS NOW FORECAST TO
PERSIST FOR A LONGER DURATION. THE END RESULT IS A TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION LITTLE CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. TO THAT
END...WE EXPECT TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 4 TO 6 INCHES
NEAR MOUNT VERNON ILLINOIS TO AS MUCH AS 8 TO 10 INCHES IN A BAND
20 TO 30 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A SIKESTON MISSOURI TO PADUCAH
KENTUCKY TO MADISONVILLE KENTUCKY LINE. AMOUNTS NEAR THE TENNESSEE
BORDER WILL LIKELY BE A FEW INCHES LESS GIVEN THE LONGER DURATION
OF SLEET THERE. ICE ACCRETION FROM FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR A 2 TO 3 HOUR PERIOD AS THE RAIN CHANGES TO SLEET. HOWEVER...
ANY ICE ACCRETION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ONE TENTH OF AN INCH
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

CLOUDS WILL CLEAR ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. AFTER
THURSDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE TEENS...HIGHS THURSDAY ARE ONLY
FORECAST IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER TOP
A SNOW COVERED GROUND. BY FRIDAY MORNING...LOWS WILL LIKELY RANGE
FROM 0 TO 5 DEGREES...AND PROBABLY COLDER IN FAVORED LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

WE START THE LONG TERM WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE VERY COLD
AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH START OF DAY TEMPS IN THE LOWER SINGLE
DIGITS. THE HIGH CENTERS SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OVER THE
TN VALLEY DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY...BUT RETURN FLOW IS SLOW
TO GET GOING AND EVEN WITH ABOUT A 25 DEGREE DIURNAL RISE...IT
MEANS ANOTHER DAY OF NOT REACHING 32 DEGREES...HAVING TO WAIT TIL
THE WEEKEND.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS OVER THE TN VALLEY. THIS
SHOULD PRECLUDE PCPN CHANCES THAT MIGHT OTHERWISE EXIST AS SMALL
PIECES OF ENERGY ROUND THE BASE OF A MEAN LONG WAVE TROF
TRANSLATING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPS WILL CLIMB ABOVE 32F FOR
THE FIRST TIME SINCE TUESDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF
CLIMO WITH HIGHS IN LOW-MID 40S EACH DAY. LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY
IN THE 20S.

THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC BUT MAINTAINS A BROAD
AREA OF CONTROL AS FAR WEST AS THE COMMONWEALTH INTO/THRU THE
EARLY WEEK PERIOD. RETURN FLOW SLYS ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB THRU THE
40S MONDAY...INTO THE 50S TUESDAY...AND PERHAPS FLIRT WITH THE 60
DEGREE MARK BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LOWS WILL MOVE INTO THE
30S.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

WINTRY MIX AT TAF SITES WILL BECOME ALL SNOW BY 00Z. MVFR/IFR CIGS
AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z, WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE N/NW AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25KTS
POSSIBLE THROUGH 06Z, SLOWLY DECREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS BY 12Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR ILZ075>078-
     080>094.

MO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MOZ076-086-087-
     100-107>112-114.

     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MOZ112-114.

IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR INZ081-082-
     085>088.

KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR KYZ001>022.

     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR KYZ001>013-015>017-019>022.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...DH
AVIATION...RST