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000
FXUS63 KPAH 061235
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
635 AM CST Fri Dec 6 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 AM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

FOR AVIATION SECTION ONLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

A major winter storm will continue across the Quad State region
today. A strong upper level jet in excess of 150 knots at 300 mb
was oriented from the Southern Plains to the Great Lakes. Strong
forcing for ascent in the divergent right entrance region of this
jet core contributed to a large swath of moderate to heavy wintry
precipitation that extended from the Ohio Valley all the way back
into Texas. Forecast models indicate this train of precipitation
will continue through much of the day.

Of particular concern is strong 850-500mb frontogenetical forcing
depicted by the NAM - and to a lesser extent the GFS - along the
lower Ohio Valley and western Kentucky around midday as the
primary wave lifts northeast. This will further enhance already
significant snow and ice accumulations across the region.

As a consequence, we have increased our snow and ice accumulation
estimates for the event. The heaviest ice accretion remains slated
for far southeast Missouri and much of western Kentucky, where one
half to as much as three quarters of an inch of ice is expected.
Further north, snow accumulations of as much as 10 to 14 inches
are possible along a line extending from Piedmont Missouri to
Benton Illinois and Princeton Indiana. Snow accumulation will
taper off substantially to the southeast of that corridor. Only an
inch or two of snow and sleet is expected across the southern
Pennyrile region of western Kentucky. With the mix of sleet, snow,
and freezing rain, deciding on how much QPF to attribute to each
element continues to be a challenge. In areas where sleet is
predominant, namely along the Ohio River, it is entirely possible
that snow accumulations may need to be reduced.

The precipitation should change over to all snow before it tapers
off from west to east this afternoon and evening. In the storm
system`s wake, bitterly cold air will take hold. Lows by Saturday
morning are forecast in the upper single digits to mid teens. Wind
chills may fall below zero across much of southeast Missouri and
southern Illinois.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

Models continue to show low pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico
12z Sunday, with an inverted trof extending east of the PAH forecast
area.  Models continue to trend a little farther east, which would
lessen amounts across our area.  Over the southern Pennyrile, where
QPF should be highest, there should be hopefully a change to plain
rain Sunday. Elsewhere, where temps stay below freezing amounts
should not be too significant. However, it should be noted that even
small amounts of freezing rain would have impacts. Freezing rain or
sleet would be the most likely form of precip in areas of wrn
KY...withe the exception of the srn Pennyrile. Very light snow would
be more likely farther n/w into IL/MO/IN.

Overall confidence is not very high right now, due to current model
trends, but fortunately amounts have trended downward from a couple
of days ago.  Also, how much snow/ice pack is left from the winter
event just getting started across our region will have an impact on
temperatures and potential impacts.  By late Sunday night the
wintry precip, mainly snow and sleet by that point, should gradually
taper off from west to east, with a return of dry conditions after
12z Monday.

High pressure will build across the Central Plains Monday and slowly
slide east through mid week, centered over the middle Mississippi
valley by 12z Wednesday.  Very cold air will settle into our region
for the early part of the work week.  Highs Monday/Tue will range
from  the middle 20s north to the lower 30s south. Lows both Monday
night and Tuesday night will range from the middle single digits
north to the middle teens southeast.  Temps should finally begin a
warming trend by mid week.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 625 AM CST FRI DEC 6 2013


Cigs and/or vsbys at all sites will gradually decrease from MVFR
to IFR by 15Z, then back to MVFR once the winter precip ends 21Z-
00z. Should be all clear 02z-06z. Snow/sleet at KCGI should change
over to all snow around 15Z. Freezing rain/sleet at KPAH/KEVV/KOWB
should change over to snow between 15-18Z. Northerly winds 10-15
mph gusting up to 20 mph should subside somewhat by the end of the
period.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 PM CST this evening FOR ILZ075>078-
     080>094.

MO...WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 PM CST this evening FOR MOZ076-086-
     087-100-107>112-114.

IN...WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 PM CST this evening FOR INZ081-082-
     085>088.

KY...WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 PM CST this evening FOR KYZ001>008-
     010-011-013>016-018>020.

     WINTER STORM WARNING until 9 PM CST this evening FOR KYZ009-012-
     017-021-022.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...GM
AVIATION...GM