Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 031145

645 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015

Issued at 645 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015

With the beginning of first period forecast update fast
approaching, will likely have to focus on areas of
drizzle/sprinkles over part of the Quad State region this
morning, not covered by measurable PoPs. The precipitation amounts
will be relatively nil, but the observable impact on those working
outdoors will be evident. This is going to be a challenge today as
the mean zone of lift will transit across the area, producing
trace precipitation at times.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 318 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015

Although the actual precipitation amounts will be minimal,
generally less than 0.05 of an inch at most locations,
precipitation coverage will be problematic through the remainder
of the weekend. The WFO PAH forecast area is targeted in broad
deformation zone, along with channeled vorticity on the west and
east ends of the WFO PAH forecast area. This may lead to isolated
sprinkles of rain where no measurable PoPs or mention of sprinkles
are planned with this forecast package. Any QPF and measurable
PoPs are limited to the more favorable deformation zone, deeper
moisture, and differential vorticity advection along the eastern
1/3 of the WFO PAH forecast area, namely the Pennyrile region of
West Kentucky and Southwest Indiana. Although most of the short
and medium range guidance had a general handle on the clouds and
measurable precipitation chances, the SREF appeared to be the most
representative in coverage through Sunday.

The NAM-WRF and ECMWF had a decent handle on temperatures and
dewpoints, along with the SREF and were used to complement the
blended guidance suite. As the mean upper low moves further to the
southeast, any sustained wind today through early sunday will be
tied closely to the ageostrophic circulation around the
deformation zone aloft. This will aid in maintaining decent cold
air advection across the area, limiting the rise in temperatures
especially today (Saturday).

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015

Above average confidence in the long term due to decent model

High pressure at the surface and aloft should keep the region dry
through Thursday. Precipitation chances make their way into the long
term forecast starting Thursday night as the high pressure breaks
down and allows the approach of a cold front.

Due to the slow passage of said cold front, precipitation chances
remain in the forecast through Friday and may continue through at
least the first half of the upcoming weekend, however at this time
that is beyond the range of the current long term period.

Temperatures should be above normal through the period.


Issued at 645 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015

From west to east, there is a transition from prevailing VFR to
predminently MVFR ceilings and visibility as channel vorticity
bands transverse across the broad deformation zone. The more
sustained lift will bring a longer period of MVFR ceilings and
visibilities to KEVV/KOWB, and to some extent KPAH, as the upper
low in the Southeast U.S. continues to shift further southeast
through the forecast period.




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