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990
FXUS63 KPAH 171750
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1250 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Updated aviation discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 130 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

High pressure will remain anchored over the Ohio river valley
thru the short term forecast period. Height falls in the West do
teleconnect/amplify the eastern U.S. High aloft, which builds
heights across the mid South. This impacts our area with a warming
profile as the week wears on. We`ll start out crisp and cool this
morning, with patchy frost and Lows in the 30s, definitely the
coolest morning of the week. A day of near full sunshine will see
highs warming some 30-35F from the daybreak mins, into the 66-71F
range. RH values will plummet into the 30s percentile this pm for
most locations, but SEMO Ozarks may see RH as low as mid 20s.
Tonight won`t be quite as cool as this morning, with lower 40s
expected. We see return flow southerlies and 850 mb temps warming
Wed-Thur, under 80 meter H5 height bump. This should translate to
a 2-3F increase in temps each day as they rise thru the 70s/40s,
getting ever nearer to 80/50 by the end of the period.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Models continue to show high pressure in control of our weather
Friday into early Saturday.  Dry conditions are expected with
unseasonably warm temperatures, with highs in the upper 70s to
possibly 80 degrees, and lows in the lower to middle 50s.

Model consistency drops off as we get into late Saturday.  Models
are trending faster with a late weekend cold front.  GFS and the
Canadian take the front across the PAH forecast area starting late
Saturday night, moving the front just east of our area by 00z
Monday. The ECMWF is slower and does not have the front out of our
counties until 12z Monday.  The previous ECMWF run had developed a
closed off low and lingered showers well into Monday.  Basically,
confidence is pretty good of a frontal passage, but confidence is
lower on the timing. For now, went with some low shower/thunderstorm
chances in our southwest counties Saturday afternoon, with likely
pops in our western third of counties by late Saturday night, with
good chances across the rest of our region except our far east
counties.  Went with good chance to likely pops across our entire
area through the day Sunday.  Models indicate the best instability
will be overnight Saturday, so included the best chances of
thunderstorms Saturday night, with just slight chances during the
day Sunday.

Behind the front, high pressure will build to our west.  Northwest
flow across our area will bring temperatures down closer to more
seasonal readings for the start of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

As a surface ridge axis gradually moves eastward, winds are expected
to be light and quite variable today, go near calm tonight, and
pickup out of the south under 10 knots Wed. Some cirrus clouds will
be seen from time to time as the only clouds. Despite the dry
atmosphere, some fog development is still possible overnight at fog-
prone locations such as KCGI.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$