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000
FXUS63 KPAH 211918
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
218 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

High confidence continues for the short term.

Models continue to be in good agreement through short term and
farther out as well. Convection started to fire late this morning
along the eastern edge of the ridge axis. However as the subsidence
inversion strengthened into the afternoon hours not only were we
losing the convection but also decreasing cloud coverage was
apparent on visible satellite. Expect this trend to continue as we
head through the short term with high pressure in charge for the
most part. May not be able to rule out a cell popping up along the
east and west borders but for now coverage and confidence in this
scenario remain too low for mention in the package. Expect well
above normal temperatures to persist through the short term with
continued high relative humidity...especially for this time of year.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

On Sunday, the center of the upper high that was centered near us,
will have migrated northeast over the eastern Great Lakes region. A
weak area of low pressure aloft will be situated over the Gulf Coast
states. Moisture will be increasing from the south and models hae
been advertising small chances for late morning/afternoon convection
for several days now, mainly over west KY and southeast MO.

Monday and Tuesday look dry aside from an isolated shower or storm
and continued warm and humid. The weak upper level disturbance to
our south weakens even more with time and becomes non influencial in
our weather.

A decaying front will be approaching from the west Tuesday night
into Wednesday. Models have pretty strong difference with regards to
QPF and how long it takes for the moisture to exit the area. This
will likely be ever changing for a few days until models can get a
handle on the upper level pattern which will be going through a
series of changes during that time.

However, the end result will be much cooler weather by the end of
the week and into next weekend. Instead of highs near 90, we will be
seeing highs in the mid to upper 70s by Thursday with much lower
humidity values.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

VFR conditions are expected through this TAF cycle. Widespread cu
field may become bkn at KEVV/KOWB this afternoon and a few
isolated showers or storms will develop. However, coverage too low
to include in the fcst at this time. Winds will be rather light
and variable but mainly a southerly component. More fog is likely
again by early Friday morning mainly in the MVFR category.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KH
LONG TERM...CW