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000
FXUS63 KPAH 071229
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
629 AM CST Sat Dec 7 2013

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST SAT DEC 7 2013

Another H50 trof/short wave will swing east from the southwest
U.S. this weekend. This should spawn sfc low pressure system over
the western Gulf of Mexico by 12z Sunday with an inverted trof
extending ne up the spine of the Appalachian mts. Models still
indicate that the bulk of the moisture with this system will stay
just south/east of our forecast area. The highest chcs for light
precipitation look to be over the srn Pennyrile region of western
KY late Sat night into early Sunday. Though the precip should be
quite light, unfortunately sub freezing temps at the sfc will
combine with a warm layer aloft to produce light freezing rain or
sleet over wrn KY. Will hold off on any headlines/advisory for now
due model discrepancies on where measurable precip will indeed
form. Will cover the possibility of a light icing event in a
Special Weather Statement for now and let the day shift take one
more look. However, even light amounts of freezing precip could
cause travel issues late Sat night into Sunday morning.

After a lull in the precip Sunday afternoon, yet another wave of
light precip may skirt the Pennyrile region again Sunday evening.
However, by that time, those areas should be above the freezing
mark.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through next Saturday Night)
ISSUED AT 452 AM CST SAT DEC 7 2013

As the base of the strongly sheared northern stream upper trough
passes by Monday into Monday night, there it little support for
more than slight chance of precipitations to the northwest and
southeast sections of the WFO PAH CWA on Monday night. Unless
there is an amplification of the trough to the west prior to
Monday, residence time for forcing/lift to support any meaningful
precipitation.

The possibly of another system returns next Friday into Saturday,
as a southern stream trough amplifies and lifts northeast out of
the desert southwest. This system will bring a more prominent chance
of liquid rain, as the deformation zone moves over the WFO PAH
forecast area. By this time, the mean location of the center of the
modified arctic high pressure system will have been east of the
local area, supporting higher (and above freezing) temperatures.

Other than these events, diurnal changes in temperatures will be
impacted by insolation, cloud cover, etc.  This will gradually raise
min/max temperatures later in the week...which is alluded to in the
various forecast formats (e.g grids, text, tabular).

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 629 AM CST SAT DEC 7 2013

VFR Cirrus deck will move across the WFO PAH TAF sites during the
forecast period. Ceilings will lower further after 05z Sunday in
advance of the next weather system moving north overnight. A
mention of snow or sleet will return to all, except the KEVV TAF
site between 06z-12z Sunday. Given the light nature of this
precipitation, no visibility restriction is noted in the forecast.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEFFERT
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Smith