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000
FXUS63 KPAH 232035
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
335 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 335 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Main convective focus has moved out of the WFO PAH forecast area
at this time. Most of the thunderstorm activity followed the
surface-based theta-e convergence along the front, balancing with
the low level southwesterly upshear flow into the leading edge of
the convective line moving into southeast Missouri.

Interim update to the gridded forecast earlier this afternoon
addressed the overall stabilization of the atmosphere.

The WFO PAH forecast area will remain on the eastern limb of the
upper level ridge/western limb of the northeast Canadian trough
through Friday morning. Surface high pressure will remain in
control during this time period with some dry air advection (lower
dewpoints) in place through Thursday night. A gradual influx of
higher dewpoints will occur during the daytime hours on Friday, as
the mid/upper level ridge flattens in advance of a northern
Plains/southern Canadian low works toward the upper midwest.

Attempted to slow the timing of the onset of convection with the
next system tied with this upper low Friday night. Kept the best
chances for closer to 12z Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

There is very good agreement today between the GFS and ECMWF in
the synoptic evolution through the period. Saturday the elongated
upper ridge will still be in control of the region. A series of
disturbances will eventually carve out a trough over the eastern
third to half of the country by the end of the weekend. A rather
amplified ridge west/trough east pattern is forecast through next
week.

Strong southwest winds on Saturday may push Lake Wind Advisory
levels...which will actually help it feel better in the afternoon
when heat indices will top 100 degrees. At this time, they are
expected to remain below Heat Advisory levels.

The west northwesterly flow aloft will be increasing Saturday
afternoon through Sunday, and some convection may push into the
northern half of the area late Saturday. An MCS may sweep across
mainly the northeast half of the area Saturday night, and then a
cold front will potentially bring another round of thunderstorms
Sunday through Sunday night. The flow will increase enough Sunday to
possibly support a few severe storms. Depending on convection and
associated cloud cover, some areas may push 100 degree heat indices.

The GFS and ECMWF agree that convection will exit the area Sunday
evening, and then another extended period of well below normal
temperatures and humidity is forecast through next week.There is very good agreement today between the GFS and ECMWF in the
synoptic evolution through the period. Saturday the elongated upper
ridge will still be in control of the region. A series of
disturbances will eventually carve out a trough over the eastern
third to half of the country by the end of the weekend. A rather
amplified ridge west/trough east pattern is forecast through next
week.

Strong southwest winds on Saturday may push Lake Wind Advisory
levels...which will actually help it feel better in the afternoon
when heat indices will top 100 degrees. At this time, they are
expected to remain below Heat Advisory levels.

The west northwesterly flow aloft will be increasing Saturday
afternoon through Sunday, and some convection may push into the
northern half of the area late Saturday. An MCS may sweep across
mainly the northeast half of the area Saturday night, and then a
cold front will potentially bring another round of thunderstorms
Sunday through Sunday night. The flow will increase enough Sunday to
possibly support a few severe storms. Depending on convection and
associated cloud cover, some areas may push 100 degree heat indices.

The GFS and ECMWF agree that convection will exit the area Sunday
evening, and then another extended period of well below normal
temperatures and humidity is forecast through next week.There is very good agreement today between the GFS and ECMWF in the
synoptic evolution through the period. Saturday the elongated upper
ridge will still be in control of the region. A series of
disturbances will eventually carve out a trough over the eastern
third to half of the country by the end of the weekend. A rather
amplified ridge west/trough east pattern is forecast through next
week.

Strong southwest winds on Saturday may push Lake Wind Advisory
levels...which will actually help it feel better in the afternoon
when heat indices will top 100 degrees. At this time, they are
expected to remain below Heat Advisory levels.

The west northwesterly flow aloft will be increasing Saturday
afternoon through Sunday, and some convection may push into the
northern half of the area late Saturday. An MCS may sweep across
mainly the northeast half of the area Saturday night, and then a
cold front will potentially bring another round of thunderstorms
Sunday through Sunday night. The flow will increase enough Sunday to
possibly support a few severe storms. Depending on convection and
associated cloud cover, some areas may push 100 degree heat indices.

The GFS and ECMWF agree that convection will exit the area Sunday
evening, and then another extended period of well below normal
temperatures and humidity is forecast through next week.There is very good agreement today between the GFS and ECMWF in the
synoptic evolution through the period. Saturday the elongated upper
ridge will still be in control of the region. A series of
disturbances will eventually carve out a trough over the eastern
third to half of the country by the end of the weekend. A rather
amplified ridge west/trough east pattern is forecast through next
week.

Strong southwest winds on Saturday may push Lake Wind Advisory
levels...which will actually help it feel better in the afternoon
when heat indices will top 100 degrees. At this time, they are
expected to remain below Heat Advisory levels.

The west northwesterly flow aloft will be increasing Saturday
afternoon through Sunday, and some convection may push into the
northern half of the area late Saturday. An MCS may sweep across
mainly the northeast half of the area Saturday night, and then a
cold front will potentially bring another round of thunderstorms
Sunday through Sunday night. The flow will increase enough Sunday to
possibly support a few severe storms. Depending on convection and
associated cloud cover, some areas may push 100 degree heat indices.

The GFS and ECMWF agree that convection will exit the area Sunday
evening, and then another extended period of well below normal
temperatures and humidity is forecast through next week.


&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 102 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Current convection has already passed south of KCGI and KPAH, but
the front is not even in the area yet. Look for winds to recover
the south or southwest ahead of the front, and it should move
through the TAF sites late this afternoon. Cannot rule out some
convection along the front into the early afternoon, but will
limit the forecast to VCSH in the northeast. Also could see some
period of MVFR ceilings behind the front at all sites tonight. Any
ceilings should scatter out by mid-morning Thursday. North to
northwest winds will persist through the night and then veer a bit
to north northeast Thursday morning.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...DRS
AVIATION...DRS