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076
FXUS63 KPAH 231443
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
943 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 943 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

A slow-moving band of tropical downpours has been drifting east
across southern Illinois and the Mississippi River counties of KY
and MO this morning. Rainfall rates have been measured near two
inches per hour in a few spots in this band. This has resulted in
some isolated flash flooding, so the Flash Flood Watch was
expanded west to include all areas in the path of this band.

The circulation center of Cindy appears from kpah radar to be
crossing the Mississippi River just west of Dyersburg, TN at
1430z. The appearance of the rain bands resembles the typical
deformation zone banding of a cool season system. As these bands
progress east today, most areas should receive at least an inch or
two of additional rainfall within a few hours time.

Concerning the Pennyrile region of west KY, there are some gusty
winds ahead of the main precip area. A few gusts to around 30
knots are possible, then gradient winds should subside as rain
stabilizes the low levels. Any deeper convection within this area
of stronger 850 mb winds could produce a damaging wind gust, but
this potential appears to be waning.

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 211 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Satellite imagery shows Cindy`s circulation center drifting across
southern Arkansas at this writing, with her remnants streaming
northward across the Mississippi river valley. As for precursing
rainfall, estimates/ground truths reveal two bullseyes having
occurred in the 24 hours of Thursday, with 1 inch ish amounts
in the HOP area and also in parts of SEMO, but little elsewhere.
The modeled max of 1-1.25" in the southwest Indiana vicinity ended
up being 0.09", and this is indicative of much of the FA having
received a tenth of an inch or less, outside the two bullseyes.

That said, models still track Cindy on a north to northeast
ejection path across west Tn, with the latest trending a tad
further north along the Ky-Tn border. The other trending, that of
the incoming cold front/passage, interacting with Cindy, is also
holding true this 06Z run, having sped the entire process along
another 3 hours or so, effectively ending max pcpn periods by mid
afternoon and entirely ending the pcpn episode by mid to late
evening. Models still project peak bullseyes of 1-1.5" additional
incoming pcpn during the peak time period of the pm hours, with
perhaps up to 1/2" ish or so possibly preceding and succeeding
the max burst. This still effectively yields storm total pcpn
amounts around 2" for the bulk of the FFA zone, with perhaps a
high end total closer to 2.5-3.0" possible in the south/east
portions of the FA (southern Ky). Per collaboration, we`ll not
alter the FFA headline.

The other impact of the tropical system will be increasing winds
today, with some gusts, that may occur to the north of the path of
Cindy. We`ll bump winds up into the teens, with an occasional gust
into the 20s mph possible, not different than what is ongoing
right now near its path across central Arkansas.

Change is on the way after fropa/Cindy`s departure, with forecast
altered airmass signals for weekend highs in the upper 70s-lower
80s and lows in the upper 50s-lower 60s still on track.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 211 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Medium confidence in the extended.

Fairly high confidence in a mostly dry extended.

The models keep us in a northwest flow through the extended. High
pressure at the surface and aloft keeps the Gulf shut down for
the early part of the week. However by mid week the surface
through 700mb does open up as the High drifts eastward. This will
allow some moisture return in the lower and mid levels of the
atmosphere at least. This could phase with a weak spoke of energy
in the northwest flow...which is not unusual...to bring increasing
thunderstorm chances back in the forecast late in the week.
However with no real synoptic scale features...fronts etc. would
not expect a significant severe threat at this time. Again most
places will remain dry in the extended and the forecast builder
has trended with this scenario. Otherwise expect temperatures to
be easily 10 degrees below normal Monday with unseasonably low
humidity. Then expect a slow warming trend through the week as
humidity slowly increases.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 211 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Adjusted near term CIGS to account for more pervasive MVFR CIGS
incoming with chance of IFR CIGS in MVFR shower restricted VSBYS.
Downplayed isolated (Vicinity) mention of thunder/CB, per ongoing
satellite imagery/lightning plot data reveal. Will likely continue
these trends next issuance. Peaking Pops to occur this morning
thru mid pm hours, then wind down west to east with fropa/winds
shifting from moderate/gusty southerlies (another necessitated
adjustment) to northwesterlies, then diminishing.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Flash Flood Watch until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for ILZ075>078-
     081>083-085>089-092-093.

     Flash Flood Watch through this evening for ILZ090-091-094.

MO...Flash Flood Watch until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for MOZ087-111.

     Flash Flood Watch through this evening for MOZ112-114.

IN...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MY
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...DH
LONG TERM...KH