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000
FXUS63 KPAH 240904
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
304 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 304 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

Skies have cleared in the wake of a system that left 1 to 2 1/2
inch snowfall across portions of the Pennyrile region of west KY
and KHOP area, tapering off quickly to 1/2 inch or so west of
there, trace along the Ohio, Lakes westward. Dry weather in
between systems today. WSW flow at surface should allow temps to
rebound efficiently today. Quick moving deep h5 low and surface
cyclone will reach northern MO by 12z Sunday, with a small chance
of rain NW of the Ohio late tonight. Rain showers will spread SE
across the region Sunday with the aforementioned features expected
to reach southern IL by 18z, and west central KY by 00z. We may
see lingering light showers change to light snow showers as colder
air quickly invades from the NW Sunday evening. Should not amount
to anything. Nearly all of the activity will be out of our eastern
counties after midnight Sunday night. Active NW flow aloft will
continue Monday through Monday night. A system may bring clouds
back to the area during this time. But the models keep any light
precip east of a channeled vorticity region from southern WI into
west IN. Went just slightly above guidance for temps today, given
the WSW surface flow, and guidances inability to respond enough
under such conditions, low trop WAA. Otherwise used a blend of MOS
and base model output.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 304 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

Above average confidence in the extended forecast through the week.
In contrasts this weekend the models diverge a great deal.

The models are in fair agreement with the synoptic setup. There are
some differences in timing and locations of weak spokes of energy.
However there is one thing loud and clear and that is the northwest
flow is in place and there will be a few weak systems move through
or deliver a glancing blow to the heartland. The first...in the
extended...appears to be Tuesday into Tuesday night but at this time
it looks to take a more easterly path towards the Louisville area.
The next is Thursday and will likely hit us but again it will be
weak with light amounts and with temperatures reaching into the 50s
would be all liquid. Also the best chance would be east of the
Mississippi River. Some models bring it farther west and will
monitor closely if we need to bring chc farther west. These clipper
type systems are not packing arctic air but more of a northern
Pacific maritime origin moisture so major cold snaps are not
anticipated but slightly below normal can be expected with each
passage. Now for the upcoming Superbowl weekend the models diverge
significantly. The 12z Fri ECMWF has really flip flopped compared to
the latest 00z Sat run which more closely resembles the GFS. Hence
the lower confidence in the weekend temps. However both models have
consistently brought another system through this weekend although
they differed on the timing. Now however they both are leaning to a
Sunday time frame for the precip.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 304 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

Light MVFR fog at KCGI and KPAH early this morning (will not last
long). Otherwise mainly clear. Light WSW winds to near calm. WSW
winds will pick up to around 10 kts today, possibly gusts in the
teens. High clouds will increase from the NW this evening, with a
lower deck arriving after 06z as a deep mid atmospheric low
reaches northern MO by 12z Sunday.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$