Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 132334
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
634 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 634 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 208 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017

Short wave energy will rotate east through the MS River Valley
later tonight and Monday. Most of the precip associated with this
feature sis progged to remain mostly south of the forecast
area...though the 12Z ECMWF is a bit more robust with rain amounts
on our southern border with AR/TN so will maintain at least some
chancy pops in that region, esp during the morning hours. Not
expecting a big impact.

Monday night into through Tue/Tue night should be mostly on the
rainfree side, though humidity levels will be on the increase as
southerly flow deepens. Only region we will carry some small pops
will be over se MO, where another weak short wave may impact the
region.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 208 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017

The beginning of the long term period features a broad upper trough
in the west and upper high in the deep south. We are stuck in
between with southwest flow over the region. When you combine that
with increasing Gulf moisture, we will have scattered showers and
storms around. This begins on Wednesday and models are in agreement
on that, but not as much with exact timing (morning vs afternoon
chances). For now, broadbrushed chance POPs for the day will do.

For Thursday, our attention then turns to a frontal boundary, which
initiates in the mid part of the country on Wednesday and moves
eastward with time. Again, timing is a problem amongst the models
but we should be seeing an increase in the chance for more
convection especially late Wednesday night and into Thursday with
the approach of this frontal boundary. These chances will continue
into Thursday night and possibly early Friday morning. There are
still differences in the timing of when the front actually exits the
area.

Given differences in timing of this front and the fact that the
ECMWF is stalling the front out over the region, will have to
maintain some slight chances on Friday and even into part of the
weekend. The upper flow becomes zonal by the end of the week but
appears we could have multiple disturbances passing through for the
weekend but going to mimic the midnight shift`s thoughts of keeping
the weekend mainly dry for now. Lots of time to pinpoint best
chances for more convection.

Unfortunately, the heat index could approach 100 degrees outside of
the scattered showers and storms on Wednesday and/or Thursday for
some areas, as highs near 90 degrees and our dew point gets into the
lower to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 634 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017

Scattered light showers will have little impact as they spread
eastward across the region this evening and overnight. Much of the
most recent guidance is bringing more substantial showers
northeast through west Kentucky mainly after sunrise Monday.
KPAH and KOWB will likely be on the fringe of the steadier/heavier
precipitation. Kept visibilities VFR at those two sites, but did
indicate a period of MVFR ceilings with steadier, light
rain/showers. IFR or lower conditions are possible over west
Kentucky Monday morning and cannot be ruled out at KPAH or KOWB.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...DRS



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