Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 311831
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
131 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 124 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

High pressure at the surface is wedging into the Commonwealth from
the west thru the short term forecast period. Around the
periphery of the high, convective elements were noted this
morning, affecting our far northern/northwestern counties for a
brief period. This will continue to be the case, as a slowly
meandering upper low drifts across the lower Ohio valley, offering
just enough lift in this area where moisture is pooling. This
will offer a 20 pop or less (silent isolated mentions possible)
thru tmrw, after which time, high pressure at both the surface and
aloft suppresses any isolated chances still lingering. The upper
low is effectively pinched off by high pressure aloft that is
building in from the southeast and also from the north/west. This
should be enough to preclude any uvm parcels that would otherwise
form convective elements.

As this synoptic transition occurs, we`ll see a slight uptick in
temps, to nr 90/nr 70 for highs lows, a summer like feel with tds
in the u60s-l70s and patchy morning fog still possible each day in
the little/no wind environ.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 306 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

After an August that felt much like September for at least a few
weeks, wouldn`t ya know September starts out feeling like...August.
Fortunately, relatively good model agreement results in higher than
average confidence in the long term portion of the forecast.

Starting with 12Z Thursday, the upper level pattern will feature a
large upper level ridge from the Mid Mississippi Valley north into
the Great Lakes and southern Canada. A weakness in the ridge over
the Deep South will remain there or drift slowly east through the
end of the week. The impact from this feature and its attendant
moisture should remain south of our forecast area. The upper ridge
will remain in place and perhaps even strengthen as we head into the
weekend.

At the surface, the core of high pressure will be to our east. The
center of the high will slowly migrate from southeastern Canada
southward into the Mid Atlantic Coast by Sunday. So while surface
winds may start off with more of an easterly component, a veer to
the south is expected with time.

The end result will be hot and rather humid conditions through the
period. The humidity will not be nearly as bad as it was in July,
but dew points in the upper 60s is not what most would consider
pleasant by any stretch of the imagination. Look for highs to range
from around 90 into the lower 90s, with lows in the upper 60s to
near 70 degrees. Conditions should be mainly dry--though a stray
heat of the day thunderstorm cannot be completely ruled out.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 124 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Low VFR diurnal cu bases anticipated and could be temporary cigs
at KEVV/KOWB today. While isolated showers are possible, chances
are too low to mention in vicinity this package. Otherwise light
wind regime (mainly diurnal) will allow for possible vsby
restrictions in patchy fog late tonight-early tmrw, similar to
today.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$



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