Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 031745
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1145 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1145 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

Updated aviation discussion only.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 227 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

Primary Short and Medium Range deterministic guidance and GFS
Ensemble are in fairly good agreement on slowly moving the leading
edge of the trough shear axis through the WFO PAH forecast area this
morning, with the main trough axis working through approximately 24
hours later. With the loss of low level moisture, the main focus
will just be the transposition of middle clouds across the region
through Thursday.

Given the orientation of cloud cover and predominate southwest
flow through the period, temperatures will rebound from the 40s
today and into the lower 50s Thursday and Friday.

As a commentary and conjecture on Tuesday`s storms...the lack of
significant severe activity may have been impeded/disrupted by
the early morning convection over MS/TN/AL. This could have
modified the deep layer moisture flow and directional shear enough
to limit updraft strength on the storms within the WFO PAH
forecast area. Otherwise, the consistency of the timing, location,
and intensity of the convective activity was very unique and
impressive. Both the medium range guidance (at least 240 hours
out) and high resolution short term guidance were consistent in
the signal regarding yesterday`s activity. Very rare forecast
continuity at a minimum.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 227 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

Respectable model agreement in the long term. Used a blend of the
ensemble means and 00z Operational runs of the GFS/EC for the
forecast. Upper trof will move across the area Saturday,
accompanied by clouds. Otherwise dry/mild Saturday through
Sunday. Next upper system still advertised to drop southeast from
the northern Rockies into the nation`s mid section by Sunday
night, eventually settling over the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes
region early next week. Will continue with our low confidence
mainly slight chance PoPs Sunday night through Tuesday. Should
start as a light rain chance Sunday night. But as heights fall and
freezing levels lower (per the models), will transition to a R-/S-
mention into Monday, then S- from Monday night through Tuesday.
All of the activity looks light at this point, with low confidence
overall in the details. Temperatures will be a blend of ensemble
MOS and existing numbers.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1145 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

A low VFR cig, rapidly progressing across the PAH forecast area
today, is expected to persist into the evening hours. Wrly winds
will gust around 20 kts at times today, then pick up a more nwrly
direction and diminish to below 10 knots tonight.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM....CN
AVIATION.....DB


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