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000
FXUS63 KPAH 281051
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
551 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 550 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

For aviation section only.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 243 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

It appears now that the closed upper low sinking south from the
Great Lakes region will be the main influence over the short term.
It should finally stall out somewhere over central KY late in the
work week. The end result is that rounds of showers will
accompany impulses rotating around the low, especially on Friday.
They should primarily impact southwest Indiana and the Pennyrile,
but areas all the way back to the Mississippi River may not be out
of reach. As the low descends toward the region today, a cold
front will sweep through the region. Scattered showers cannot be
ruled out over our eastern counties, but thinking is that the main
instability and chc of a few thunderstorms will stay east of the
forecast area. The front should clear the region by 21Z, and that
should mark the end of any precipitation chances in the Pennyrile.

On Friday, short wave energy will pin wheel around the upper low
with another surface low. These features may be accompanied by a
bit more instability, so will added in isolated thunder chances.
Once again...higher chance pops will be located over the
Evansville Tri-state and Pennyrile regions. Given the cold pool
aloft, any storms that manage to form could contain some small
hail. Cold air funnel clouds cannot be completely ruled out
either, though those features rarely touch down or cause much in
the way of damage impacts.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 243 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

Medium confidence in the extended.

The models are in fair agreement with the extended at least more so
than typical when changing meteorological seasons. They still bring a
an upper low from the great lakes region and sink it south finally
into central Kentucky. However by Saturday it starts to lift out of
the region with little more than a few sprinkles or light showers
east of the Pennyrile Parkway Saturday morning. Then dry and below
normal temperatures will persist through the period. The next
significant weather system will arrive next wednesday when a true
cold front will move into the area. The models are showing surface
based instability next week so thunder will likely be introduced.
LI`s are around negative 3 with CAPE`s around 1500 j/kg/2. PW`s
exceed an inch with mild elevated instability with K index values
approaching 30c and Showalters reaching to around a positive 1. So
severe weather is not anticipated at this time next week but thunder
remains possible.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 550 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

VFR conditions expected at all sites through the period, however with
the passage of a surface trough/front could see VCSH at KEVV/KOWB
between 14-19Z. West southwest winds AOB 5 knots overnight will
pick up out of the northwest AOB 10 knots behind the passage of
the trough/front.


&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GM