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000
FXUS63 KPAH 261104
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
504 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 205 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

Light rain, drizzle, light snow combo pretty much over across our
far east counties, with clouds and gusty NNW winds still the rule.
Clouds will persist though some breaks expected today. Strong NW
flow aloft to persist through tonight, with a couple of weak
surface reflections along a quasi inverted trof moving SE this
afternoon and tonight. Models depict enough lower level moisture
and QG forcing, to warrant slim chance PoPs for light snow (mostly
flurries) this afternoon, srn IL, sw IN, and into the Pennyrile
region tonight. Mid trop heights will rise Tue-Wed with high
pressure returning, resulting in quiet wx. S/WV forecast to move
toward the region Wed night, with small chances of rain continuing
in the forecast. Blend guidance and persistence used for
temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 205 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

Strong confidence in the extended until this weekend then it
becomes less certain.

The northwest flow remains dominant through the extended...with a
couple more clipper systems poised to move through the region. The
first will Wednesday night and departs Thursday. This system is weak
and focuses most of its energy east of the Mississippi River. Due to
limited moisture not much qpf is expected with this system. And
since its origin is north Pacific maritime its air mass will not be
like an arctic blast but will cool the area down a bit but still
near normal for this time of year. The next system will arrive most
likely on Saturday night but could be as early as Saturday. The
models diverge...as they have for the last 5 days...for the weekend.
Even though this system is weak as well and not a lot of qpf is
expected at this time. As of now have light snow forecast for
Saturday night with no significant accumulation expected due to the
lack of strength of the system and available moisture. If the system
arrives earlier during the daylight hours in would be liquid. Again
this is a weak system which is probably why the models are having
difficulty on the timing of this system. Finally the most
frustrating part is that the ECMWF has been bringing much cooler air
in the wake of the weekend system than the GFS. This adds to the
uncertainty of the proper solution. It has consistently been
bringing in a colder air mass for days 6 and 7 for the last 5 days
and just keeps pushing it back 24 hours with each run. This is not
unusual for any of the models to do with temps or precip. Therefore
will hold off on the cold outbreak until better consistency is
established. Will however weight some of the cold air into the
solution.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 504 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

Variable MVFR cigs today with a mid deck moving across the region
as well this afternoon and early tonight. NW winds will dimish
this morning and back to the west/southwest. The variable cig
conditions will continue tonight, though MVFR conditions more
likely to prevail east of a KMVN-KHOP line. May be a little -SHSN
activity as well. Probs too low to include in the forecast at this
time.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$