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000
FXUS63 KPAH 022147
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
347 PM CST Sun Mar 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

Plan on no changes to the current winter warnings now in place
over the region. It now appears that the greatest icing potential
will be limited mainly to locations of the southern
Purchase/Pennyrile in wrn KY. It seems as tho enough cold air has
worked into areas along the Ohio River to support mostly sleet
this evening. Still major questions on how quickly the sleet can
transition over to snow from nw to se tonight. This will likely be
the deciding factor on how much snow we get, esp in areas along
and just south of the Ohio River where precip amounts are likely
to be quite significant. Current thinking is that the snow line
will work south to along the Ohio River by around midnight, then
work its way into the srn Pennyrile by around 3 or 4 AM.

Latest satellite and radar trends suggest this system is really
getting its act together over AR this afternoon. Precip has
lightened up in many locations, but this should not fool anyone.
Heavy precip will likely move back into many locations overnight,
esp areas along and south of the Ohio River. Latest 18z NAM now
suggests an additional 1.5 to 2 inches of QPF between 21Z this
afternoon and 15z Monday from far se MO right through most of wrn
KY. Though will not go this extreme right now, still could be more
extensive icing through the evening over the srn Pennyrile and
Purchase of wrn KY, with another round of heavy sleet up along the
OH River. Farther north, we should see a change to snow this
evening.

Around midnight, we expect the sleet to transition over to snow
over far se MO and northern parts of wrn KY. The snow should then
continue within the deformation zone through around 7 or 8 AM.
This should allow for a good 6 hours of decent snow, and there
may even be localized banding in the deformation zone of srn IL
and wrn KY. Snow amounts in the 4 to 6 inch range could become
widespread, with locally higher accumulations within bands.
Northerly winds 20 to 30 MPH will cause considerable
blowing/drifting of what snow does fall. With sfc temps in the
teens, wind chill values could easily reach 0 to 10 below in many
locations by Monday morning.

Arctic high pressure following the system Monday night and Tuesday
will likely bring single digit temps at night with highs only in
the 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

 rather uneventful weather pattern will take hold through the
remainder of the week. Stratified upper level flow will tend to keep
any weather systems either north or south of the immediate region
through Friday. The core of arctic high pressure will shift across
southeast Canada and the Great Lakes region into the Northeast by
Thursday. The forecast region will be on the southern periphery of
this high. As a result, expect unseasonably cold weather to start
the week. As the week progresses, the combination of slowly warming
temperatures and an increasing March sun angle should help to slowly
erode the snow and ice cover that will be in place at the beginning
of the week. After a prolonged period of sub-freezing temperatures,
expect highs to climb into the 30s on Wednesday, 40s Thursday, and
perhaps even near 50 by Friday.

By late week, both the GFS and ECMWF bring another piece of energy
east across the Plains with an approaching cold front. Both models
are not quite in agreement with respect to timing, but the general
idea yields our next chance of precipitation by the weekend. As a
result, we continue the slight chance of rain Friday night and
Saturday. At this point, temperatures appear warm enough to support
mainly liquid precipitation Friday night and Saturday. However,
temperatures may be cold enough by Saturday night for a mix of rain
or snow.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

Another round of freezing rain and sleet will spread across the
forecast terminals this afternoon, resulting in significant icing.
The precipitation will change to mainly sleet by late afternoon
and early evening, then to snow by late evening and overnight. On
top of the ice, several inches of snow accumulation is expected.
Low MVFR conditions will frequently be reduced to IFR in heavier
precipitation. The precipitation will come to an end late tonight
and early Monday morning, but MVFR ceilings will remain. Sustained
northerly winds of 10 to 20 knots will gust as high as 25 to 30
knots.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING until Noon CST Monday FOR ILZ077-078-082-
     083-085>094.

     WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 AM CST Monday FOR ILZ075-076-080-
     081-084.

MO...WINTER STORM WARNING until Noon CST Monday FOR MOZ108>112-114.

     WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 AM CST Monday FOR MOZ076-086-087-
     100-107.

IN...WINTER STORM WARNING until Noon CST Monday FOR INZ081-082-
     085>088.

KY...WINTER STORM WARNING until Noon CST Monday FOR KYZ003>005-007-
     010-014-015-018>020.

     ICE STORM WARNING until 9 AM CST Monday FOR KYZ001-002-006-008-
     009-011>013-016-017-021-022.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...RP
AVIATION...RJP