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000
FXUS63 KPAH 140737
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
236 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 139 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

Active/Ongoing convection is the primary near term challenge. The
first prefrontal line of storms is just departing the FA to the
east at this writing. It contained generally 35 mph wind
gusts...though we outlooked its potential for 40 to 50 mph gusts
through the area. One spotter report suggested such but a nearby
same time measured mesonet gust (Cadiz) did not confirm the higher
gust.

Another/secondary convective line is now bearing down on PAH. It
too may produce winds gusting 30 to 40 mph. With both lines,
locally heavy rains could produce ponding of water on roadways. In
general, the svr/convective parameters are lessening with
time/eastward progression. The new swody1 shifts the slgt risk svr
significantly south of our area. Ltg plot shows CG strikes have
all but disappeared, even within the otherwise high dbz/narrow
secondary line moving in on western Ky.

Will continue high PoP today with the upper trof axis making
passage after the surface front does this morning. Thunder risk
will be mainly attendant to along/ahead of the front, i.e. mainly
early this morning, although it may continue into/thru the pm in
our farthest southeastern counties/wky.

The next challenge then becomes the consistently forecast freezing
or sub freezing temps for Tue night-Wed morning. Given this
consistency, and a plethora of nearby offices issuing Freeze
Watches, we`ve decided to join the bandwagon for this event. Site
reference shows local input as either/or and user input as a
positive, so net sum leans toward headline, esp considering we`d
anticipate another degree or two lowering in projected low temps
forecast next couple runs. Add to this the already expected frost
and the watch headline seems appropriate (it is a WATCH).

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 236 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

Main concern in the long term is the potential for showers and
perhaps a few thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday night.

Starting with Wednesday night, it appears the pressure gradient will
be strong enough to keep south/southeasterly winds elevated through
the night. This should preclude any concern for frost development as
low temperatures stay close to the 40 degree mark. Thursday will be
much warmer as strong southerly flow develops. Highs on Thursday
will range from the mid to upper 60s.

The approach of strengthening shortwave energy from the Plains will
result in our next round of precipitation by Thursday night and
especially Friday. A convergence in model solutions over the past
few days has resulted in increased confidence in the potential for
showers Thursday night through Friday night. Of the GFS, GEM, and
ECMWF, the ECMWF continues to be the weakest of the three, so we
prefer a blend of the GFS and GEM at this point. As a result, we
have raised precipitation probabilities to likely across much of the
forecast area on Friday.

Model forecast instability continues to be rather meager at this
point, but some weak elevated instability will be present as the
core of the system moves through on Friday. As a result, we kept a
slight chance mention of thunder on Friday, with showers Thursday
night and Friday night.

In the wake of the Friday system, dry weather is expected to start
the weekend as high pressure builds in. Given the Pacific origin of
the air mass, temperatures will remain quite mild through the
weekend. Our next chance of showers may arrive by Sunday and Sunday
night, but confidence is relatively low at this point given poor
model agreement that far out.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 139 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

Mix of low VFR cigs/vsbys with convectively induced IFR conditions
will continue thru the early morning hours, as convective bands
move thru the terminals. Daylight should see a see-saw from MVFR to
VFR cigs/vsbys, with continued fairly high probability pcpn
chances until front and upper trof axis swings thru. Gusty winds
will shift from southerlies to west/northwest over the course of
the day as the aforementioned boundaries make their passage.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FREEZE WATCH from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning
     FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...FREEZE WATCH from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning
     FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.

IN...FREEZE WATCH from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning
     FOR INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...FREEZE WATCH from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning
     FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$