Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 200209
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
909 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 907 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

For aviation section.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

Average confidence in the short term due to model differences.

Light showers or sprinkles will continue to track south southeast
across parts of SEMO this afternoon as a warm front associated with
a system over the plains approaches from the west, however rising H5
heights/weak ridging aloft will tend to snuff them out by late
afternoon.

As the warm front draws nearer, late tonight shower and thunderstorm
development should be limited to the northern and/or northeast
sections of our CWA due to the rising heights/ridging elsewhere. All
but one model are leaning heavily that way so will go with the
majority plus it just makes more sense synoptically.

Through the Monday morning hours rain chances should diminish from
the west with the passage of the warm front, however Monday
afternoon rain chances begin to fill in across most of our CWA as
the cold front associated with the aforementioned system approaches
and becomes quasi-stationary W-E across our CWA by early Tuesday
morning.

Precipitation chances max out Tuesday afternoon and evening as upper
level energy passing across the stationary boundary taps into deep
tropospheric moisture producing widespread coverage of showers and
thunderstorms. Latest model guidance showing a slight decrease in
POPs from the north late Tuesday night as the front is forecast to
sag slightly southward.

Temperatures tonight expected to be a few degrees above normal, well
above normal Monday, then within a couple of degrees of normal
through the rest of the period.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

Forecast confidence in the long term continues to gradually improve
owing to better model agreement during this period. In fact, I would
give Wednesday through Friday slightly above average confidence,
with a decrease to average heading into next weekend.

The period should start off dry as high pressure drifts southeast
from the Great Lakes on Wednesday into the Ohio Valley by Thursday.
An upper level ridge is forecast to build east from the Plains into
the Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys, which should keep
mainly dry weather in place through Friday morning. However, a few
showers cannot be ruled out as the leading edge of a much warmer air
mass surges northward on Thursday. These would most likely be
focused from the Missouri Ozarks northeastward into southwest
Illinois in closer proximity to somewhat better forcing and moisture.

On Friday and particularly by Saturday, the potential for showers
and some thunderstorms will be on the increase as the next low
pressure system slowly makes its way east from the Central Plains
into the Middle Mississippi Valley. This is looking more and more
like a deep vertically-stacked area of low pressure as it enters our
forecast area. As a result, its main impact may turn out to be
locally heavy rain. If the low cuts off from the main flow as some
models suggest, the slow movement of the low may keep the chance for
rain around through much of the weekend.

Temperatures are generally forecast to moderate from below normal on
Wednesday to above normal by Friday and the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 907 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

High pressure moving off to the east of the region will allow
southerly winds to increase after 14Z Monday. Could see gusts up
close to 20 kts. Otherwise, expect VFR cigs from time to time.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GM
LONG TERM...RJP
AVIATION...GM



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