Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 290747

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
247 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Some scattered clouds early this a.m. otherwise mostly clear. A
weak surface "cold" front was to our west. The models bring this
weak boundary south and east into the FA, to near the Ohio River
into SEMO around 00z. Will carry small PoPs for convection mainly
across the SE 1/2 of the CWFA this afternoon and evening, ending
by midnight. The boundary will be south of the area after midnight
with dry weather to follow into the 1st half of Memorial Day. In
the afternoon, still looking at the possibility for convection
across the Ozark Foothill region of SEMO. As the upper level flow
backs, and return flow sets up Monday night through Tuesday, PoPs
for convection will slowly expand east across the area, though
only low chance category for now. Model blend was NAM/EC. We
incorporated HiRes data for convective trends this afternoon and
evening. Temps were a blend of existing numbers and MOS.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Medium confidence on the cold front passage late in the week. Fairly
high confidence there will be periods of storms through at least
mid week.

Models are in good agreement with southwest flow persisting over the
heartland with several perturbations in the flow. The best chance of
rain will arrive Wednesday afternoon through Thursday as a cold
front hangs up and slowly pushes through the heartland. The
residence time of the front is likely in response to the slow
eastward progression of an upper level along the eastern seaboard.
Friday is when the models start to diverge with their solutions. The
GFS continues to develop a closed low over the Arklatex area with
associated precip chances which has been the case for the last
several runs but it develops it a little faster than previous runs.
The Canadian which did not do this before is now starting to develop
this closed low over the mid Mississippi Valley which is not at all
like its previous runs which resembled the ECMWF solutions. The much
more stable...but not necessarily correct...ECMWF keeps the trough
open but stationary. It still develops a closed low over the mid
Mississippi Valley but holds off until Sunday night into Monday
before returning rain chances to the area. Weighted the ECMWF much
more due to its stability. However did leave some slgt chc pops in
Thursday night into Friday which goes against the ECMWF solutions. I
would expect any blends to continue to yield these low pops in the
extended through the convective season which introduces much more
error than cool weather stratiform synoptic scenarios. As for
temperatures expect a cooling trend through the extended as the
trough overtakes the heartland.


Issued at 247 AM CDT Sun May 29 2016

High clouds to start. Some lower clouds 3-4k/ft have developed
since midnight. Will have a combo of both through today. Chance of
convection SE of a Mount Carmel, IL to New Madrid, MO line. That
chance continues into the early evening. Winds will become more
westerly today as a weak boundary eventually reaches the Ohio
River by 00z. Light winds tonight with sct clouds, VFR conditions.


.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

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