Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 100617

117 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 117 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015

Mid level s/wv across the TN Valley will continue east. High
pressure forecast to build in today through tonight, moving ESE of
the region Sunday followed by return southerly flow. No precip as
a result today through Sunday night. The models move a cold front
through Monday mainly afternoon. Some of the guidance increases
moisture along it, especially afternoon along the Ohio River and
into west KY. Will maintain our slight chance of afternoon showers
as a result, then dry Monday night. Thunder not out of the
question. Confidence is not high enough to include at this point.
Temps a blend of persistence and latest MOS numbers.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 117 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015

Dry conditions will continue through the long term period. Fast
northwesterly flow aloft will dominate the Ohio Valley on the back
side of a strong mid-level trough over the Northeast. A quasi-
stationary baroclinic zone will exist in the vicinity of the strong
northwesterly jet. Even though a surface frontal zone will be in our
area, the column is expected to remain quite dry. Due to the
proximity of the strong baroclinic zone, temperature forecasting
will be quite a challenge.

As far as the specific details, Tuesday will be sunny and rather
cool as surface high pressure builds east toward the Lower and Mid-
Mississippi Valley. Highs will be around 70.

On Tuesday night and Wednesday, the surface high will move to our
east. This will result in a period of southwest low level winds.
Highs on Wednesday will be in the mid to upper 70s.

Wednesday night through Friday, there will be a fast-moving series
of dry frontal systems. Since our region will be on the anticyclonic
side of the core of the jetstream, the dry conditions depicted by
the models appear reasonable. The models keep the main thrust of the
cool air on the poleward side of the jet core. However, our region
should receive at least a glancing blow of cooler air. Although
there is considerable model variability, a good preliminary estimate
is that highs will cool to around 70 by Friday.

The dry air mass should allow for strong radiational cooling each
night. However, winds may stay up each night due to the rapid
movement of surface highs and their associated fronts. Will go along
with the in-house model blend, which shows lows ranging from the mid
40s to near 50 each night.


Issued at 117 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015

VFR lower deck 3-5k/ft breaking up. Band of upper level clouds
will move SE across the area early. Otherwise little cloud cover
later today through tonight. NNE winds 4-8 kts today will become
calm tonight. Some shallow late night fog cannot be ruled out.



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