Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 231127 AAA

National Weather Service Paducah KY
527 AM CST MON NOV 23 2015

Issued at 527 AM CST MON NOV 23 2015

Updated the aviation discussion for the 12Z TAF issuance.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 226 AM CST MON NOV 23 2015

Above average confidence for most of the short term period due to
continued decent model agreement, then less confidence at the very

High pressure at the surface and rising heights aloft will keep the
region dry through Wednesday, however by then southerly flow on the
back side of the high and winds aloft becoming southwest will begin
to advect moisture back across the area. This combined with a system
approaching from the plains might generate a few showers over the
far western sections of our CWA late Wednesday night. About half of
the deterministic models show the possibility of light precipitation
in said area late Wednesday night but the other half keep the
leading edge of precipitation just west of our area all night.

Temperatures starting off below normal will moderate back to near
normal during the period.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 226 AM CST MON NOV 23 2015

Higher than average confidence starts off the long term with good
agreement among model solutions. However, confidence takes a tumble
by the weekend with a myriad of solutions offered up by the models.

An upper level low coming onshore over the Pacific Northwest on
Tuesday is forecast to dig into the Intermountain West through mid
week. The low will eventually phase with the main upper level trough
over Canada by late week. Successive perturbations ejecting east
from the low will bring more clouds and eventually rain to the area
during the latter half of the week.

Models continue to trend slower with the onset of precipitation,
which is important since that happens to impact the Thanksgiving
holiday. Right now, the bulk of the precipitation appears to hold
off until after Thanksgiving Day, although a few light showers are
not out of the question by Thursday afternoon, mainly over portions
of southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.

As low level convergence amplifies ahead of an approaching cold
front, the chance of rain increases from the west Thursday night.
The likelihood for rain showers peaks on Friday before showing some
potential to taper off from the northwest Friday night and Saturday.

Unfortunately, this is where forecast models have really diverged.
Until yesterday, the general consensus was to bring the rain to an
end on Saturday with a return to dry weather by Sunday. However,
more recent model runs shed some doubt on this scenario. For
instance, the 22/12Z ECMWF and 23/00Z GFS clear things out for a
time on Saturday before another slug of overrunning moisture comes
at us by Sunday. Meanwhile, the 23/00Z ECMWF keeps Saturday wet and
shifts rain south of the area by Sunday. Given the lower confidence,
we plan to stick with a model consensus solution, which keeps some
chance in through the entire weekend.

Largely positive showalter indices and a moist adiabatic thermal
profile should limit the potential for thunder. Climatologically
high precipitable water content on the order of 1.25 to 1.5 inches
by Friday signals heavy rain as the main concern with this system.
Best estimate right now is for an average of 1 to 2 inches areawide
Thursday night through Friday night, with locally higher totals
possible, especially in southeast Missouri.

Temperatures are forecast to start off above normal, with readings
near the 60 degree mark on Thanksgiving. Sharply colder conditions
should follow next weekend in the wake of Friday`s frontal passage.
Forecast temperature profiles near Interstate 64 are cold enough
Saturday night that we may need to keep an eye on precipitation
type. However, our best judgment maintains liquid as the dominant
precipitation type through the weekend.


Issued at 527 AM CST MON NOV 23 2015

High pressure will provide VFR conditions at all sites through the
period. Winds will remain out of the southeast to south AOB 10


.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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