Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 182000
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
300 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sun Sep 18 2016

S/WV moving across MO and AR toward the area sparking convection
over southern MO into NE AR and west TN. Will continue with
convective chances through the end of the day across SEMO into SW
KY before ending. After that, dry weather is forecast with weak
high pressure in control. Will monitor for fog again tonight as
conditions will be similar to what we saw earlier this morning.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sun Sep 18 2016

A strong 500 mb ridge over the Southeast and Lower Ohio Valley will
bring dry conditions through the rest of the workweek. Afternoons
will be rather hot and humid, but with the longer September nights,
overnight lows will be in the 60s. Over the weekend, there is a wide
range of model variability regarding how quickly the ridge breaks
down. Overall, the models have slowed the eastward progression of
troughing from the western states. Therefore, pops are a bit lower
and temps a bit warmer for the weekend than previous guidance.

Wednesday through Friday, the mean location of a deep layer
anticyclone will be across the lower Tennessee Valley. The models
hint at some moisture from the remnants of tropical depression Julia
rotating northwest into Tennessee on Thursday. However, there are no
signs of any precip this far northwest. Based on forecast 850 mb
temps in the upper teens, which yielded highs around 90 in many
areas last week, it appears similar readings will occur this week.
Humidity will be a little lower than last week, allowing temps to
fall into the mid and upper 60s at night.

Next weekend, the ridge will weaken from the northwest, but the
timing varies greatly between models. The new 12z ecmwf is
considerably slower than previous runs and keeps Saturday dry and
rather hot. The new forecast will call for very little change in
airmass Saturday, with only a slight chance of storms. There is
better agreement on increasing moisture Sunday, along with lower
temps due to pre-frontal clouds/convection.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sun Sep 18 2016

VFR conditions through early evening with variable clouds and
light winds. Convection will affect SEMO, and possibly SW
Kentucky through sunset. Near calm conditions tonight should lead
to fog formation again and is reflected in the TAFs. Clearing up
tomorrow morning.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$



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