Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 132317
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
517 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 517 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2017

Aviation update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 141 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2017

High pressure settling into the upper OH Valley will continue to
bring dry and chilly conditions to the region tonight and Tuesday.
Expecting quite a bit of frost on the pumpkin Tue AM, with lows
generally between 30 and 35 degrees. Sunshine Tuesday will help
temps rebound some, but maximum readings will still struggle to
reach the mid 50s with east to southeast breezes.

A southeastward moving cold front will move into western Missouri
Tuesday night. Warm advection clouds and showers may develop as
far southeast as the lower Ohio Valley by Wed morning. The
showers will become widespread on Wednesday as the front reaches
southern Illinois and SE Missouri. There may be a few rumbles of
thunder in se Missouri and southern Illinois, where showalter
indices are forecast to be zero or a little lower. Showers will
end from northwest to southeast Wednesday afternoon and early
Wednesday night as the cold front passes moves off to the
southeast.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 141 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2017

Relatively low-amplitude flow aloft will continue across the CONUS
in the extended forecast period. A surface high, centered over the
upper Midwest, will move off to the east Thu night, resulting in
increasing cloudiness and the beginning of low level temp and
moisture advection. Warm advection showers well ahead of an
approaching cold front should develop sometime Thu night across most
of the PAH forecast area, starting in the west. This scattered
activity should continue through the day Fri, with gradually
increasing instability and coverage of tstms, as the parent surface
low moves through KS/IA/northern IL. Southerly winds gusting to
around 25 knots are possible Fri.

Timing differences remain among the medium range models with this
feature. Timing of cold fropa is different by six hours or more in
the solutions, with the GFS being consistently fastest and the ECMWF
consistently slowest. More certain is that there will be a decent
rainfall event of generally less than an inch associated with the
passage of a warm and cold front. At this time, model consensus is
that the period of highest PoP will be late on Fri, mainly Fri
night, with scattered tstm activity just ahead of the cold front
which should pass through the region sometime Fri night/early Sat
morning. Whatever happens, all pcpn should be out of our region by
nightfall Sat evening.

Some severe potential exists with the system, as models indicate
ample wind shear parameters ahead of the cold front. Instability
will be more in question, and of course timing of the possibly
severe weather conditions will depend on evolution and movement of
the system.

Into early next week, the CMC and GFS depict faster northwesterly
flow aloft over the PAH forecast area due to the holding back of a
large vortex over the northeastern states. Meanwhile, the ECMWF
showed a less amplified pattern and higher mid level heights over
us. Either way, our region should be under the influence of dry high
surface pressure, with the center either north or south of us. This
will tend to cause differences in wind direction and temp forecasts,
with MOS numbers differing up to 14 degrees over the weekend. For
now we will forecast lows near freezing Sun and Mon mornings, with
highs Sat in the 50s and Sun mostly in the 40s. Continued cool on
Mon.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 517 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2017

VFR conditions through Tuesday evening. Light east winds becoming
southeast. Variable high clouds.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$



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