Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 232003
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
303 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

The heavy rainfall event has wound down this afternoon as the
center of Cindy`s remnants moved east of the area. At 1945z, the
circulation center on kpah radar appeared to be just a bit east of
khop. A cold front moving into southern IL and southeast MO has
initiated a broken line of showers and thunderstorms. This line is
moving fairly quickly into an air mass that was stabilized by
widespread rainfall. Therefore, the risk of any additional flash
flooding is quite small. The watch has been cancelled for some
areas, and the remainder will either expire or be cancelled by 5
PM CDT.

As a post-mortem of the past 24 hours, the heaviest rainfall was
generally more northwest than modelled. The heaviest rain appeared
to be in a deformation zone on the north side of the circulation
center. These deformation zones have proven to be the downfall of
many forecasts, mainly in the winter months.

Quiet weather will begin this evening following the departure of
the last of the cold frontal showers and isolated storms. Much
cooler and drier air will continue through the weekend. Overnight
lows will be in the 50s, and daytime highs will be in the lower
80s. Some scattered diurnal cumulus clouds are indicated by the
model cu rule scheme in the afternoon, otherwise plenty of sun is
expected.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Monday through Tuesday, will continue to follow a model consensus
and keep the forecast dry, with NW flow aloft and high pressure
moving across the area. We may have to add back a slight chance of
weak convection to the forecast as some models depict the chance,
mainly from SEMO, into west KY and the southern tip of IL. But the
run to run inconsistencies means we will take the dry route for now
until we can better define the time frame. Our mid level flow will
back around to the west Wednesday as the strong ridge over the SW
U.S. breaks down, replaced by a weak long wave. Return flow, and
subtle disturbances aloft may generate some thunderstorms by
Thursday into Friday. Blend PoPs are simply too high once again,
given the time of year, and lack of a significant signal. So nothing
more than 20/30 percents late in the period. Below normal temps to
start will gradually head back toward normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

The back edge of the tropical rain associated with the remnants of
Cindy has moved east of the Mississippi River, and will exit
southwest IN and western KY this afternoon. This will be
accompanied by a rapid improvement in visibility. However, the low
levels will remain very moist. Although some sunshine is likely
after the rain ends, a low cig in the mvfr category will persist
most of the day. Winds will shift into the northwest this
afternoon as a cold front passes. A few isolated thunderstorms
could develop along the front, but overall it looks dry after the
back edge of the solid rain area moves out.

Vfr conditions will then prevail tonight and Saturday, with
excellent vsby.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...Flash Flood Watch until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for INZ081-082-
     085>088.

KY...Flash Flood Watch until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for KYZ010>022.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...MY



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