Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 100653
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
153 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 155 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014

As a weather front takes shape and approaches from our northwest,
the pressure gradient tightens up and we`ll become breezy and
gusty this afternoon. The front makes passage overnight, and a
chance of a shower/storm will accompany its passage, a slow move
thru and east of us that means pops for tonight-Friday.

After the fropa, the weekend returns to mild/dry. A warming trend
noted today is dealt a temporary cool off tomorrow in the
immediate post frontal environs, then warming again over the
weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014

This extended period begins in a fast zonal flow, becoming southwest
in advance of low amplitude short wave from the Rockies
Sunday/Sunday night.  This shortwave will be the primary weather
maker for the forecast period, followed by cool high pressure Monday
into early Tuesday. Another shortwave develops in the Western U.S.
on Wednesday, but is slower and more intense, vertically tilted,
surface to upper level low will move from the plains into the middle
Mississippi valley by late next week.

Given the trajectory of the moisture (Gulf of Mexico), both the late
weekend/early next week weather event and the one late next week
should prove to be decent rain producers, with flash flooding not
out of the question.

Leaned closer to the operational GFS/Canadian numerical model
guidance as a template in the gridded forecast.

There is some concern for frost potential next Tuesday and Wednesday
Night. Given the growing season is in play, may have to consider
future headlines and/or a mention in the Hazardous Weather Outlook.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 155 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014

South winds will start to increase through the morning hours. Winds
aloft support gusts near 30 mph by this afternoon. These winds
will be ahead of a cold front that will bring some high clouds to
the region. The front ultimately will bring some lower level
clouds (still VFR) and possible precipitation by late evening-overnight,
mainly for KEVV/KOWB.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$






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