Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 261951

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
251 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 152 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Fairly high confidence in the short term.

A cold front was perched just northwest of the region. It extended
from Wisconsin to near St Louis and Springfield MO into Texas. By
00z this front should be nearing the confluence of the Mississippi
and Ohio rivers. The front should exit the area by 12z Thursday.
Strong and some severe storms were developing well ahead of the
front over SEMO this morning and spreading into southwest Illinois
this afternoon. These storms were fairly isolated but producing
some winds in excess of 60 mph and small hail. As the front
approaches later this afternoon and evening would expect to see
more widespread convection with severe and heavy rain possible.
After midnight start to end the thunder chances from west to east
as we lose our CAPE. Expect a lull for Thursday. A warm front will
lift into the area Friday bringing rain chances back to the
region. We will cool down a good deal Thursday and then rebound
right back above normal Friday as the warm makes its way through.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 152 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Confidence remains high on an unsettled upcoming weekend with both
heavy rain and severe potential. Less confidence in the exact timing
and location of where the heaviest rain and best severe threat will

An upper level trough will pivot into the southern Plains on
Saturday as ridging takes shape over the southeast U.S. On Sunday
the trough will eject northeast into our region, moving into the
Great Lakes on Monday. Deep southwesterly flow will remain in place
this weekend, with ample moisture present for heavy rains.

On Saturday, a warm front will lift north of the region resulting in
precip chances decreasing from the south. Most of the area may end
up dry by the afternoon and evening hours as our area becomes fully
engulfed in the warm sector. Our northern and western counties may
not see as long of a break in the rain and storms. By Saturday
night, the upper level trough is nudging close enough to increase
PoPs from the west as the better lift and upper dynamics move
closer. Highest PoPs will push across the area through the day on
Sunday. At this time, it looks the back edge will push east through
the evening and much of the area may end up dry by after midnight.

As far as severe potential on Sunday, it will be dictated by just
how much instability is present and the exact timing of the front
through the area. Models hint there will at least be modest
instability along with strong forcing and deep layer shear.
Currently, the cold front looks to advance east through the area
during the afternoon into the early evening hrs, which would be near
prime time for enhanced storm activity. Will continue to monitor
this closely. Guidance continues to indicate several inches of QPF
Saturday night into Sunday, refer to the latest Hydrologic Outlook
for details. Holding off on issuing any sort of Flood Watch at this

The trough lifts north on Monday, leaving the Quad State dry for
Monday and at least the first part of Tuesday. A shortwave looks to
push into the area sometime later Tuesday and Wednesday, with PoPs
returning possibly by Tuesday afternoon and increasing into

Temperatures will be warmest on Saturday, into the 80s in many
locations, before cooling down below normal in the 60s on Monday. A
warming trend then commences with most areas back above 70 on


Issued at 152 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Low level moisture continues to spread low VFR cigs northeast thru
the area, with some MVFR cigs even noted in portions of southeast
MO. A line of storms over southeast MO will continue lifting off
to the northeast while gradually moving east. Strong to severe
storms will remain possible through the afternoon and evening hrs,
especially over southeast MO and southwest IL. Storms will also
bring strong gusty winds in addition to reduced ceilings and
visibilities to MVFR or perhaps IFR levels. South winds will
average 10 to 15 knots with occasional gusts to 25 knots ahead of
the front. Behind the front, winds will shift to the
west/southwest as ceilings look to remain in the MVFR to low end
VFR range through the overnight and much of the morning hrs.




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