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000
FXUS63 KPAH 272345
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
545 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 545 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION ONLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

ANOTHER RECORD OR NEAR RECORD NIGHT OF COLD IS ON TAP FOR TONIGHT
AS THE 1040+ MB SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND ANCHORS OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z FRIDAY. THE
RECORD LOW AT PAH IS 17 (1993) AND WE FORECAST 15. THE RECORD LOW
FOR EVV IS 4 (1993) AND WE FORECAST 12. WIND CHILLS WILL ALSO DROP
INTO/THRU THE SINGLE DIGITS AND BOTTOM OUT NEAR ZERO IN SOME
LOCATIONS...MAINLY NORTHERN REACHES OF THE QUAD STATE.

SATURDAY...WITH THE HIGH TO THE EAST...A LIGHT RETURN ELY FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH MEANS THE MODERATION IN TEMPS WILL BE GRADUAL. WE
SHOULD SEE ABOUT A 20 DEGREE DIURNAL REBOUND...WHICH PUTS ALL
SITES INTO THE 30S...WITH THE NORTHERN HALF FLIRTING WITH 32F AND
THE SOUTHERN HALF OR SOUTHEASTERN PARTS NUDGING TOWARD 40F. IN THE
SEMO OZARKS...TEMPS MAY HALT THEIR RISE IN THE LOW-MID 30S...AS
MOISTURE FIELD CURRENTLY SEEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
EXPANDS/MOVES INTO THE OZARKS DURING THE PM AND PRODUCES SMALL
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES FOR OUR WESTERN FOUR OR FIVE OZARK SEMO
COUNTIES.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE PCPN FIELD EXPANDS NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD ACROSS
THE QUAD STATE. SOUNDING DATA SUGGESTS THE UPPER LEVELS WILL BE
COLD AND THIS WILL BE MAINLY A SNOW CHANCE AT 00Z SUNDAY. BUT BY
06Z SUNDAY...THE WARM NOSE REALLY GETS GOING...AND PCPN
CHANCES...DEPENDING UPON SURFACE TEMPS...WILL TRANSITION TO A
WINTRY MIX. THIS WILL BE MOST MARKED ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN AND
WESTERN COUNTIES...ALIGNED CLOSELY WITH THE WPC DAYS 2-3 WX
DEPICTION. THIS PERIOD OF ICY/SNOWY MIX WILL LAST INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...AFTER WHICH THE TEMP RISE EVERYWHERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT
TO CHANGE ALL PCPN OVER TO ALL RAIN FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY. AFTER A
SAT NIGHT LOW IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...SUNDAY HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM UPPER 30S TO ALMOST 50.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

LOTS OF ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A
SLOW MOVING 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL BRING AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE BULK OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN...WHICH COULD BE
HEAVY AT TIMES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL FINALLY
PASS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
DRIER AND COLDER WEATHER.

AS FAR AS THE DAILY DETAILS...
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LINGERING POST
FRONTAL MOISTURE FOR SOME LIGHT SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN...MAINLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ON MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS ILLINOIS
AND INDIANA. THIS HIGH WILL BRING A RESPITE FROM THE PRECIPITATION
FOR MOST OF OUR REGION. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LITTLE RAIN
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER AND IN PARTS OF SE MISSOURI. THIS COULD BE
FREEZING RAIN IN SPOTS EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE FLOODGATES WILL OPEN WIDE AS A
LARGE PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR
REGION. PRECIP WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REACH 1.5 INCHES BY
LATE TUESDAY...WHICH IS EXTREMELY RARE IN FEBRUARY. A STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL RAISE DEW POINTS INTO THE
50S. 12Z GFS INDICATES BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF 45 KNOTS INTO THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL LATE TUESDAY. A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST FROM KANSAS TO THE CHICAGO AREA...WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT SWEEPING SOUTHEAST INTO MISSOURI.

THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR AT LEAST A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING. GFS MUCAPES
/1000 TO 850 MB LAYER/ HAVE BEEN RANGING FROM 100 TO 200 J/KG OVER
OUR REGION TUESDAY. THESE WILL LIKELY ENHANCE RAINFALL RATES
LOCALLY. SOME STORM TOTAL QPF VALUES EXCEEDING 3 INCHES ARE QUITE
POSSIBLE. THIS WOULD INCLUDE THE PRECIP LATE THIS WEEKEND.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST
ACROSS OUR REGION. TEMPS WILL FALL RATHER QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ANY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WOULD BE MAINLY AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A
PERIOD OF OVERRUNNING SNOW OR ICE. THE MODELS HAVE VARIED IN THEIR
DEPICTION OF THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION. THE 12Z
GFS AND 00Z ECMWF KEPT MOST OF THE PRECIP SOUTH OF THE KENTUCKY
BORDER. THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS
HAVE BEEN MORE AGGRESSIVE BRINGING THE POST FRONTAL PRECIP NORTH.
SINCE THIS IS FIVE DAYS OUT...IT WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST ANOTHER
DAY OR TWO BEFORE THE MODELS START TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK LOOK DRY IN THE WAKE OF THE
FINAL PIECE OF 500 MB SHORTWAVE ENERGY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF
VERY COLD AIR. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS IS LIKELY FRIDAY AS THE
HIGH MOVES TO OUR EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 545 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EWD OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...GENERALLY LIGHT
SFC WINDS WILL BECOME MORE ERLY...ESPECIALLY BY MID MORNING. WSWRLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE VFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SNOW...TO THE
POINT OF VSBY RESTRICTIONS...IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z SUN.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DH
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...DB