Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 151730
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1130 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1130 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 330 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

Latest satellite imagery shows low clouds still in place across
the entire forecast area early this morning. In fact, the low
cloud deck stretches all the way back to eastern Kansas as of 08Z.
Generally used a blend of the NAM12 and RAP13, which seem to have
a good handle on the moisture profile in the cloud-bearing layer.
As a result, we expect clouds will likely hang around through much
of the day, with any clearing more likely across the southern half
of the region. Overall forecast will be cloudy to mostly cloudy
north and partly to mostly cloudy south. Temperatures will be held
down in the 30s where clouds linger all day, which is most likely
in the Evansville Tri-State. Elsewhere, the appearance of at least
some sunshine by afternoon should help to boost temperatures into
the 40s--perhaps even upper 40s in the Poplar Bluff area.

As surface high pressure slips southeast of the region, winds
will back to the southwest on Saturday. With good warm advection,
highs on Saturday are forecast in the 50s area-wide--perhaps even
approaching 60 degrees in the Missouri Ozarks. Breezy conditions
are also expected on Saturday with southwest winds around 15 mph
and occasional gusts of 20 to 25 mph. The gusty winds and dry
vegetation will bring back the elevated fire potential to much of
the area. Using bias-corrected guidance for dew points, relative
humidity may approach critical thresholds in the Missouri Ozarks
Saturday afternoon.

By Saturday night, an upper low currently over western Mexico is
forecast to transition to an open wave as it pivots northeast
across the Southern Plains into the Mississippi Valley. The end
result is the potential for light rain starting late Saturday
night and continuing into Sunday--especially in the morning. With
the wave dampening out as it reaches the area, forecast rainfall
totals are generally no higher than one tenth to one quarter inch
at best. Any lingering rain should taper off from west to east
Sunday afternoon, but low clouds will likely linger through the
night. Model forecast soundings continue to show a temperature
profile supportive of all liquid precipitation through the period.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 330 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

Another moisture starved, weak surface front will make its way
across the region Monday night. Ahead of the front, a stronger
southern stream system will bring rains to the Gulf Coast states.
Meanwhile, a northern branch trof will bring precipitation to areas
mainly north of the forecast area. That will leave most of our
region in between systems. Thus, little if any rain should accompany
the frontal passage. Temperatures ahead of the front will make a
surge into the 50s to near 60. Depending on the amount of sunshine
we can get, some locations may even make it into the 60s, especially
areas near the AR/TN borders.

The air coming in behind the front with high pressure Tue/Wed will
not be of Canadian origin. In fact, temperatures will remain above
normal with highs in the 50s to near 60 with plenty of sunshine
expected. After another mild/dry day Thursday, a stronger cold front
will arrive Thursday night. This front may have a bit more in the
way of mid/upper support, so will begin to ramp pops up some at that
time. Most limiting factor for any appreciable rains may be a lack
of overall moisture that can return from the south before the front
arrives.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1130 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

The TAFs are VFR. 4-6kft ceilings will be continue to stream east
southeast across the region this afternoon into the evening, then
it will be clear overnight and Saturday. Ceilings will be most
prevalent through the afternoon and much of the evening in the
northeast, including KEVV and KOWB. Farther southwest toward
southeast Missouri, it may remain scattered. Westerly winds this
afternoon may gust into the teens. South winds will develop
overnight and will become gusty with mixing Saturday morning.
Gusts over 20kts will be common by the end of the period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...GM
AVIATION...DRS



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