


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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638 FXUS63 KPAH 112324 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 624 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorm chances ramp up this weekend, especially Saturday, when a few strong to severe storms are possible in the afternoon and evening. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1205 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 The introduction of a frontal boundary with upper air support, albeit weakening, will be enough to touch off thunderstorms during the heat of the day tmrw...and there is enough juice in the environment to support strong to potentially severe storm chances. We`ll get plenty unstable with 3-4K MUCAPEs during peak heating, although we think with the incoming storm chances ramping up the NBM might be a tad high with its high temps in the lower 90s...that will depend on the convective cloud canopy timing. Not a lot of overall shear but a little uptick with the wave and good lapse rates in excess of 7C in the lower 3KM just as the wave enters the forecast picture should be enough to offset, and soundings support wet microburst potential. PW`s still hovering around 2" likewise keep heavy rain/localized flooding a potentiality as well. A general night-time pause is expected before another similar round of pops/strong storm potential Sunday afternoon/evening, although with the models signaling more convective noise overall during that time frame, that might nudge down the overall scope potential at least vs Saturday. Beyond the stormy weekend chances, we resume a relatively speaking `seasonal` mid July forecast thereafter, with at least some daily storm chance as highs range from the upper 80s to around 90 and dew points hover around 70. Heat of day activity will offer the best such chances. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 621 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Some daytime cumulus is still lingering around for the next few hours. Winds will go light and variable overnight. Tomorrow will start off with some few high clouds then the chances for thunderstorms increase in the afternoon across the area. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION... AVIATION...HICKFORD