Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 221920

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
220 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

High pressure over the area today will shift east tonight. Winds
will respond by picking up on Sunday out of the southwest. We will
see a marked uptick in our temperatures as strong warm air
advection will take place over the next 24 hours, with 850mb
temperatures soaring back into the teens. So we should see highs a
good 8-10 degrees warmer tomorrow. Meanwhile, a weak frontal
boundary will push through Sunday night with little fanfare, other
than a shift in winds which will become northerly by Monday

Behind the front, a cooler Canadian air mass will filter into the
region, bringing temperatures back down a few degrees but still
seasonable. Dry weather will continue through Monday night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Confidence is growing for the long term portion of the forecast, as
the models appear to be honing in some on the mid week system

Both the GFS/ECMWF show the cold front approaching our western
doorstep by 18Z Wed, making entrance Wed pm/evening with instability
parameters mildly supportive of thunder, and then making passage
late Wed night-early Thursday morning with filling/loss of thunder

Before the front`s appearance, we warm up nicely, with low-mid 70s
and low-mid 50s Tue-Wed. After its passage, a cool back to 60s/40s
is expected. We`ve made minor massages for timing, focusing on the
aforementioned with regard to Pops. Otherwise, the blend appears to
handle the scenario well with increasing confidence in multiple
model solutions synchronizing.


Issued at 124 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

High pressure over the area currently will shift east with time.
This will allow winds to pick up more on Sunday, especially in the
afternoon. Hardly any moisture to work with so expect nearly
cloudless skies. Patchy fog is possible tonight but should not be
thick or widespread.




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