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000
FXUS63 KPAH 250505
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1205 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Sun Sep 25 2016

Updated aviation section for 06z TAF package.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016

The end is near. One more hot day, and then a cold front will
bring much cooler air to the region for Monday.

Surface high pressure will remain in control tonight, so some
patchy fog will be possible again. There may be some increase in
low-level cloud cover overnight that could lessen the fog
potential. Will not insert fog for tonight at this time.

A south wind will return to most of the region Sunday, as the cold
front approaches from the northwest. This will help surface
dewpoints hold up a bit better through the day, so Sunday may end
up being the most oppressive.

The cold front will be right on our doorstep at 00Z Monday, and
will push through the entire region through the night. Most
guidance develops a band of QPF behind the surface cold front, as
elevated instability is released. The WRF runs do not show
tremendous coverage, so will keep PoPs at chance levels, with the
best chances in the far northwest Sunday evening and near the
Wabash River overnight. Not sure how much coverage, if any, there
will be over the southern half of the area.

Figure that most of the area will be dry and pleasant Monday with
decreasing clouds and a nice northwesterly breeze. Will keep low
chance PoPs mainly for the morning hours over the southeast half
of the area just to be safe. Some guidance does re-develops QPF
in the morning. Highs will likely range from 70-75 from northwest
to southeast through the region. High pressure will nose in over
the area Monday night. Lows will be in the upper 40s over most of
the region.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016

The long-term portion of the forecast will be highlighted by a slow-
moving, deep 500 mb low over the Great Lakes region. This system
will bring a deep northwest flow of cool and dry conditions for much
of the workweek. By next weekend, there are very large model
differences regarding the progressiveness of the upper-level pattern.

Tuesday through Wednesday are rather straightforward, since there is
little model disagreement. An occluded low pressure system over the
Great Lakes region will produce a northwest wind flow of cool, dry
air. Skies will be mainly clear. Forecast 850 mb temps are around
plus 10, which should translate to highs in the mid 70s on both days
for most of the area. Overnight lows should drop into the upper 40s
to around 50 both Tues and Wed night.

Model variability increases for Thursday and Friday. The forecast
will generally follow the ensemble means, which are more progressive
with the upper low than some deterministic runs. The 12z
deterministic ecmwf actually sinks the upper low southward into the
central Appalachians by Friday evening. Based on the more
progressive gefs, surface high pressure will move east from the
Upper Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes region Friday. The
forecast follows this idea, which means a northeast wind flow of dry
air for our region. Highs will be mainly in the mid to upper 70s
both days, with lows 50 to 55.

The models are even farther apart for Saturday. The 12z ecmwf is an
outlier with an upper low over the upper Ohio Valley. Nearly all
other guidance indicates an upper-level ridge will be located over
the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes region. The forecast will remain dry
with a slow warming trend. Highs should be around 80 Saturday, with
lows in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Sun Sep 25 2016

MVFR vsbys expected with fog overnight, otherwise VFR conditions
after 13z. Calm winds will become light south to southwest after
13z.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...RST