Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 151945
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
245 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather returns this weekend and continues into much of
  next week.

- A dry arctic cold front will move through Saturday night,
  causing lows to fall below freezing Sunday night and Monday
  night. Temperatures quickly rebound by the middle of the week
  with highs in the 60s.

- Next chance for rain arrives on Thursday with a low pressure
  system, but rainfall amounts look to be light at this time.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Updated aviation section for 18z TAF issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Clouds will decrease from north to south through the evening
hours, with clear to mostly clear skies across our region by
around midnight. Cooler air will be filtering into our region,
with lows tonight 10 to 15 degrees colder than last night. Winds
will shift back to the southwest Saturday ahead of a cold front,
and with lots of sunshine, high temperatures will still be
around 10 degrees above normal.

A dry arctic cold front will move through the middle Mississippi
and lower Ohio valleys Saturday night. Low temperatures Saturday
night will still be around 5 degrees above normal, but much
colder air will build in behind the front for Sunday into Monday
night. Highs Sunday will be in the 50s, then on Monday, highs
will only reach the 40s. Lows Sunday night and especially
Monday night are bigger concerns. Although we are not officially
in the growing season, above normal temperatures have triggered
a lot flowers and tree budding. Lows Sunday night will drop
into the upper 20s to lower 30s, then Monday will be our coldest
night with readings in the middle to upper 20s.

Models show surface high pressure centered over the Central
Plains Monday, moving over the central Gulf Coast Tuesday into
Wednesday. This will keep the PAH forecast area dry, and by
Tuesday, winds will shift back to the southwest. Temperatures
Tuesday and Tuesday night will quickly rebound back to
seasonable readings, and for Wednesday, readings will be around
5 degrees above normal.

By Wednesday night into Thursday, models show a surface low
approaching from the west/southwest along with a mid/upper level
trof. This system spreads shower chances, and eventually some
thunderstorms, into our area late Wednesday night/Thursday, and
especially Thursday afternoon into Thursday night, persisting
into Friday. Of course, track and timing are still in question,
but expected rainfall is only around a tenth or less for any 6
hour period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Expansive MVFR clouds will slowly move south, with clouds
becoming scattered at KMVN between 18z-21z, KCGI/KEVV between
20z-23z, and at KPAH/KOWB between 22z-02z. IFR cigs currently at
KOWB will improve to MVFR by 19z. VFR conditions expected after
02z at all sites. North winds at 6-12kts with some gusts near
20kts will become light after 02z, gradually shifting to the
southwest overnight, then increasing to around 6kts after 13z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RST
DISCUSSION...RST
AVIATION...RST


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