Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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655
FXUS63 KPAH 260443
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1143 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 06Z TAF issuance.

UPDATE Issued at 859 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Made some minor adjustments to the grids this evening. First was
to catch up to the latest satellite trends with a streak of mid-
level clouds streaming eastward over the northern half of the
area, and clear skies elsewhere. There is a weak surface trough
moving south through the area this evening and that appears to
keep the air moving a bit more through the night, and that may
hold temperatures up a couple of degrees.

The latest HRRRs are not bullish on bringing light precipitation
into even the far western counties before 12Z, but did add small
chances in the far west in the pre-dawn hours to fit in with
neighboring adjustments. Would be surprised if it amounted to more
than sprinkles.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

With high pressure in control, below normal temperatures and
humidity levels continue. Nearly cloud free skies. Energy moving
ESE across the Plains generating clouds and convection to our west.
Expect an increase in clouds later tonight from the west, with a
slight chance of light showers or sprinkles working into SEMO.
Will continue the slight PoP through Monday morning in this area,
otherwise dry.

Next wave of energy forecast to move across the area Monday night.
The GFS and especially NAM have a much drier look with best
moisture splitting to our north and south. Main reason is its
advection of drier air around 700mb over the region especially
through the evening. The CMC and ECMWF continue steadfast in their
depiction of greater moisture and much better chances of showers
and isolated thunder. Given the notable change over 24 hours in
the NAM to much drier, vs. the consistent EC/CMC, will give more
weight to those two models, but keep PoPs in check in case the
drier air seen in the GFS/NAM has an eventual impact. Dry weather
returns for Tuesday through Tuesday night in the wake of this
system, and with high pressure back in control. Temperatures were
generally a MOS blend with existing numbers.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Confidence in the long term portion of the forecast is higher than
average through about Friday. Confidence reduces somewhat by next
weekend with greater model variability.

The forecast will start off dry with high pressure centered over the
southern Appalachians Wednesday morning. In the generally zonal/flat
upper level flow pattern, the main storm track will initially exist
over the northern half of the nation with very weak flow across the
southern U.S. This should result in a continuation of the dry
weather through Wednesday and into much of Thursday. Both the GFS
and ECMWF have been on board with the dry forecast through Thursday,
while the Canadian model remains an outlier at this time.

The pick up in southerly flow on the west side of the surface high
will result in a marked increase in humidity--particularly by
Thursday as dew points creep towards the 70 degree mark. All models
are in decent agreement that a better chance for showers/storms
should arrive Friday into Saturday as a weak cold front slips south
into the area. This is reflected by the initialized model blend low
end likely PoPs Friday and Friday night over portions of the area.

What happens next weekend is more uncertain as models suggest the
front will either slip just south of the region or possibly wash out
before making it through the area. Will maintain low precipitation
chances to account for this uncertainty.

Highs through the period should average in the upper 80s, with lows
in the upper 60s to lower 70s. This is in line with model
guidance.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

One week mid-level disturbance will bring mid-level ceiling
southward over KCGI and KPAH through the overnight hours into
Monday morning. A stronger disturbance will bring more mid-level
clouds to the region Monday evening. Scattered SHRA/TSRA will be
possible throughout the area in the evening, but confidence in
placement and timing is too low to mention at this time.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...CN
LONG TERM....RJP
AVIATION...DRS



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