Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 150451

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1150 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Updated aviation section for 06z taf issuance


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

The main forecast challenge for the short term is the passage of the
strong cold front Sunday and its associated weather. A major cool
down will follow the frontal passage and there is a chance, albeit
small, of scattered light frost Monday night.

The morning model runs have some slight variations from the previous
runs. The 12Z GFS is slightly slower (equivalent of an hour or
two) with the southeast progression of the cold front and very
similar to the 00Z ECMWF run, whereas the NAM is about the same.
Bottom line is the front will push into the NW extreme of the FA
about 3-4am and clear the SE corner of the FA by about noon
Sunday. However the models have consistently held the moisture
axis along and behind the front a hundred miles or so/up to a
couple hours. Will keep POPs mostly in the likely range, however
rainfall amounts should average no more than a tenth of an inch or
so mainly in the mode of showers, although a few thunderstorms
are possible.

The Sunday transitional weather pattern has resulted in several
degrees variation on model forecast max temps. The OWB MAV/GFS value
is 12 degrees warmer than the MET/NAM value (76 vs. 64). Will
maintain a max temp forecast similar to previous forecasts (lower
60s NW to at least lower 70s SE) which is basically a NAM/ECMWF
blend vs. the warmer GFS. Will blend in the GFS more though in the
SE for Sunday max temps. Wind gusts into the upper teens and at
least lower 20s Sunday combined with the abruptly cooler temps will
make for a very fall like day.

With high pressure centered right over the FA Monday night and
surface dewpoint temperatures projected in the upper 30s (some
mid 30s) a few of the colder areas could see some patchy light
frost. Will leave frost out of the forecast for now with lows
Monday night projected just above 40 but much of a trend lower and
it will need to be introduced.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

High confidence in the extended.

Models are in good agreement with the extended. We will start out
with a surface high over the area with a near zonal flow aloft. The
high will slowly drift eastward toward the east coast as we head
through the week. This will allow a southerly flow to set up over
the region bringing a warming trend to the area. As we approach the
end of the week high pressure aloft starts to build over the area.
The net result will be dry weather with a warming trend in the
extended. Much drier air will be in place early this week with RH
reading falling into the 20s west of the Mississippi River and 30s
to the east of the river. Temperatures will start off near normal
and slowly rise at least 5 degrees above normal toward the end of
the week. The models do start to diverge late next weekend with the
GFS breaking down and allowing a cold front to approach the area.


Issued at 1150 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

A strong cold front over central Missouri at 04z will move southeast
across the taf sites between 12z and 15z. Gusty south to southwest
winds ahead of the front will become northwest once the front
passes. Ahead of the front, southwest winds around 40 knots at 2k
feet agl will result in low level wind shear. After the frontal
passage, northwest surface winds will gust from 20 to 25 knots

The front is moving rather quickly, so the duration of rain and
associated lower cigs and vsbys will be short-lived. Several hours
of light rain and localized mvfr cigs are expected Sunday morning. A
few tstms are expected, but they will be isolated. VFR conditions
will return in the afternoon.




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