Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 221751
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1251 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.

UPDATE Issued at 1025 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

Updated forecast to reflect east-southeast transition of rain
across the WFO PAH forecast area during the first period (rest of
today). Main adjustment was to shift elevated thunderstorm chances
further to the south and east into southern sections of West
Kentucky late this morning and into the afternoon. Most of the
thunderstorm and moderate rain chances should remain along along
the 850 mb frontal boundary and cyclonic circulation moving east
across the area at this time. Most of the lightning probabilities
should remain confined in this area, especially challenging for
weekend outdoor DSS activities. Main adjustments made to PoPs,
Weather, and QPF. Other sensible weather elements remain unchanged
at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 248 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

First item was to significantly cut back the Flood Watch. Removed
southern IL counties. Thus far, no reports into the office and no
products issued. Having said that, we maintained the Flood Watch
until 9 a.m for some of SEMO, given storm totals of 2.5 to just
over 3 inches. Cannot rule out entirely some local, minor issues.
Thing is, it has been drawn over over a decent amount of time,
and the region has needed the rain as seen by fairly high FFG
values, climo departures prior to precip onset. There also seems
to be considerable radar over estimation of rainfall amounts over
parts of Wayne, Bollinger and Butler counties, when compared to a
good deal of ground truth. The MRMS QPE has been a better
estimator, and followed more closely thus far, though probably too
low west sections of Carter and Ripley counties. The 04z HRRR exp
is doing a very good job with precip coverage hourly. Will follow
its lead through 14z and progress the current activity steadily
east across the area. After that, expect the activity to become
more scattered, clustered, as the parent h5 low approaches today.
Will maintain some isolated thunder, as the favored models suggest
below zero li`s when lifting parcels from 800-750mb, with
steepening lapse rates as well upon the approach of the upper
system.

Highs today will be quite cool with NE flow continuing, gusty
winds at times with low pressure passing to our south.
Temperatures will move little from readings currently in the upper
40s to lower 50s.

A few showers will linger tonight as the upper system moves ESE
across the area. Will leave a small chance of showers in for
mainly the KY Pennyrile Sunday just west of the upper low, then
dry things out by Sunday night. Dry weather is forecast Monday as
weak high pressure, and a s/wv ridge aloft move across the region
in the wake of this weekend`s system.

Model preference was an even blend of the GFS/CMC, with HRRR exp
incorporated in the short term. MOS was reasonable, though tended
toward the cooler EC/LAV numbers.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 248 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

Forecast confidence in the long term starts off higher than average
through Wednesday night owing to relatively good model agreement.
Confidence reduces to below average during the latter half of the
week with more uncertainty over the evolution of the next weather
system to impact the region.

Starting with Tuesday, dry weather should persist with a weak upper
level ridge over the area sandwiched between a departing upper low
off the Southeast coast and upper level troughing over the Plains.
By late Tuesday night and Wednesday, forecast models continue to
signal our next chance of showers and thunderstorms as a cold front
enters the region. As a result, precipitation probabilities are
higher on Wednesday to reflect the increase in confidence. Lingering
showers and thunderstorms should taper off from west to east
Wednesday night as the front shifts to our southeast.

From Thursday into next weekend, forecast models continue to send
mixed signals with respect to the relative influence of the upper
level trough approaching from the Plains and the westward extent of
the Bermuda High over the Southeast. Latest model guidance suggests
the front will return north as a warm front Thursday and Thursday
night--possibly accompanied by another chance for precipitation.
Less clear is how models handle the frontal passage late in the week
into the weekend. Given the myriad of model solutions and no clear
preference, the forecast will maintain at least a small chance of
showers and thunderstorms both Thursday and Friday, while better
chances appear to hold off until the first half of the weekend.

Unseasonably warm conditions are expected through the period with
warm southwest flow aloft. Highs are forecast to range from the mid
70s to lower 80s with lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

Showers will continue to impact terminals over much of the region
this afternoon, and scattered activity may linger well into the
evening hours over KPAH and KCGI. Any thunder activity this
afternoon is expected to remain over west Kentucky to the south of
the TAF sites.

Most guidance seems to indicate lower ceilings than are currently
being observed, so tried to go on the optimistic side with the
ceiling forecast. KEVV is already flirting with VFR conditions and
should be there soon. All sites should climb into VFR territory
at some point by the overnight hours.

Northeast winds will continue to gust over 20kts at times through
the period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
AVIATION...DRS



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