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000
FXUS63 KPAH 191800
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
100 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

UPDATE FOR AVIATION SECTION ONLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING A WEAK COLD FRONT IS SAGGING SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR CWA. A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAD DEVELOPED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY OVER FAR SOUTHWEST
KENTUCKY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS ALL BUT
THE FAR SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF OUR CWA AND BECOME STATIONARY BY 00Z
THURSDAY (7 PM TODAY). HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE
SHUNTED OFF MORE TO THE EAST SO WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO GET SCOURED OUT. H8 DEW POINTS REMAIN RATHER HIGH THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS WELL.

IN ADDITION...THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD THE REGION
REMAINS IN A VERY WEAK WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH THE WEAK FLOW
ALOFT...EMBEDDED WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND DECENT RESIDUAL
MOISTURE IN PLACE...ITS GOING TO BE VERY DIFFICULT DETERMINING
EXACTLY WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE GOING TO DEVELOP...BUT
THEY SHOULD TEND TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE.

THIS AFTERNOON FEEL BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF OUR CWA ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE GREATEST. NOT EXPECTING ANY
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT WITH LACK OF HEATING...INSTABILITY...ETC BUT
COULD SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
CWA ON THURSDAY AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TAPS INTO THE
BEST/DEEPEST MOISTURE.

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT BUT ON FRIDAY COULD SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE CWA
AS AN AREA OF H5 LOW PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHWARD INTO THAT PART OF THE
REGION.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING
SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS. THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OF
INTEREST WILL BE A MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THOUGH THE RIDGE WILL FREQUENTLY CHANGE ORIENTATION...THE
MEAN LOCATION WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH.

IN THE LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE
APPALACHIANS INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE HIGH
MOVES AWAY...WINDS WILL VEER MORE INTO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE COURSE
OF TIME. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLOW INCREASE IN SURFACE DEW POINTS
AND INSTABILITY. ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
HEAT OF THE DAY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...DRIVEN MORE BY INSTABILITY THAN
ANY SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

WILL FORECAST ONLY SCATTERED VFR CU THIS TAF PERIOD...THOUGH SOME
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. CU WILL DISSIPATE WITH
LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING THIS EVENING. SOME PATCHY SHALLOW FOG IS
LIKELY AGAIN VERY LATE TONIGHT...BUT NOT CONSEQUENTIAL ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS FORECAST TIME RANGE.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GM
AVIATION...GM