Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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386
FXUS63 KPAH 282250
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
550 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 550 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Compared to the past several days, we expect a much more benign
weather pattern through Monday night. A weak disturbance will
continue to push east of the area this evening. Before it
completely departs, the chance for isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms continues across mainly southwest Indiana and
the Kentucky Pennyrile region.

Also in play, low pressure over the Missouri Valley is forecast
to lift northeast into the Upper Midwest tonight. Energy pivoting
south of this low may touch off isolated to scattered storms over
central Missouri. Some of this activity may hold together long
enough to make it into northwestern portions of southern Illinois
and southeast Missouri by late evening. However, any remnant
activity should tend to diminish overnight with the loss of
daytime heating.

A small chance of thunderstorms continues into Sunday--mainly
during the late morning and afternoon--as moisture pools along and
just ahead of a passing weak surface trough. From Sunday night
through Monday night, a weak mid level ridge will work its way
east from the Plains into the Middle Mississippi and Lower Ohio
Valleys. Weak subsidence and a somewhat drier atmospheric profile
beneath this ridge should result in mainly dry conditions through
the period.

Temperatures will be quite warm through the near term. Expect
highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows in the mid 60s. This is in
the ballpark of a model consensus blend.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

At the start of the period the upper level pattern is rather benign
over the area with an upper level low along the North Dakota/Montana
border. By Thursday morning it becomes more of an open wave along
the Wisconsin/Minnesota border with a positive tilted trough
southwest down to the Kansas City area. The trough becomes more
broad over the region by Saturday and deepens, but likely more in
response to the increasing ridge out west rather than energy diving
southward.

At the surface this results in a slow moving front crossing the area
Wednesday into Thursday. Weak ripples of energy could bring a few
rounds of showers and thunderstorms ahead and along the front.

There is heavy rain potential from Wednesday into Thursday. High PWs
of over 1.5 inches will be over the area which is above normal. An
atmospheric river sets up over our area during that time, according
to the GFS.

Severe weather threat seems isolated/disorganized during the period.
Plenty of instability but the deep layer shear is weak and mid level
lapse rates are not that impressive.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Light southerlies to maintain in first half of forecast period
with mainly diurnally enhanced low VFR bases. So overnight, expect
mid clouds sct-bkn, unless incoming MO convection lowers bases.
Tmrw morning, as weak front approaches/makes passage, anticipate
insolar fuel will develop low VFR cigs with vicinity
showers/storms, mainly daytime heating impact with boundary
passage. Winds will shift to west and northwest toward close of
planning period as boundary moves through terminals.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$



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