Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 240727
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
227 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE ROCKIES AT 06Z WITH A PROMINENT RIDGE
AXIS AT H5 FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO SE U.S. A S/WV WILL EVOLVE
AND HEAD NE FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION
LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN SLOWLY
INCREASING CHANCES OF CONVECTION TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
HIGHEST POPS WEST...LOWER EAST GIVEN THE NE TRAJECTORY TO
CONVECTION. COORD WITH MEG AND FOR NOW...WILL HOLD ON ANY WATCH
HEADLINES FOR FLOODING. THIS MAY NEED A REVISIT ON THE DAY SHIFT
SHOULD THERE BE AN UPTICK IN GUIDANCE. FOR NOW WE ARE JUST BELOW
CONCERNING LEVELS. SHOULD BE A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY MEMORIAL DAY
ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
CHANCES AGAIN FROM SW TO NE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS
ANOTHER S/WV EJECTS NE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION. ALL OF THIS ACTION DRIVEN BY MID LEVEL ENERGY...
WITHOUT A SFC/LOW TROP BOUNDARY TO FOCUS CONVECTION. THIS WILL BE
OFFSET BY PERSISTENT LOW TROP MOIST TRANSPORT VIA A DECENT LOW
LEVEL JET. AGAIN WILL CERTAINLY HAVE TO MONITOR THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL. TEMPS WILL BE A BLEND OF EXISTING NUMBERS AND THE
LATEST MOS OUTPUT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

HIGH CONFIDENCE THERE WILL BE AT LEAST DAILY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OUTSIDE OF MAX HEATING FOR
THE EXTENDED.

WE WILL BE WARM SECTORED FOR THE EXTENDED WITH SURFACE BASED AND
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. LI`S REMAIN NEGATIVE WITH CAPE VALUES RANGING
FROM 500 TO NEAR 2K J/KG/2 THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. PW RANGE FROM 1 TO
NEAR 2 INCHES WITH K INDICES LOWEST MID 20S AT TIMES BUT MOST TIMES
ABOVE 30C. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT
BUT SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG NO DOUBT. THE WIND FIELDS ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR A SEVERE THREAT BUT THE INSTABILITY COULD
YIELD A WARNING OR TWO. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN
AND LIGHTNING OF COURSE. A COLLAPSE OF A STORM COULD YIELD A WIND
THREAT...AGAIN ISOLATED IF AT ALL. BY THE WEEKEND THE FASTER GFS
TRIES TO BRING IN A COLD FRONT AS EARLY AS SATURDAY...IN CONTRAST
THE ECMWF HOLDS IT OFF UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT AT THE EARLIEST. THATS
NOT TOO BAD OF A DISCREPANCY THAT FAR OUT. OTHERWISE WARM AND HUMID
NEAR SEASONAL TYPE CONDITIONS. WITH RELIEF IN SIGHT NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER FROM VFR HIGH/MID CLOUD TO MVFR BY LATE
TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS SSE WINDS INCREASE AS WELL. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS CANNOT
COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY WEST OF A KMVN-
KCEY LINE.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$


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