Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 020740
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
240 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

CHALLENGE TODAY IS WHETHER OR NOT THE HIGH RES MODELS ARE ON TO
SOMETHING DEVELOPING ISOLD CONVECTION OVER THE WEST 1/2 OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN A CORRIDOR OF HIGHER MOISTURE,
INSTABILITY AND NO CAP. THERE IS VERY LITTLE SFC/BLYR CONVERGENCE
AND ONLY WEAK SUPPORT ALOFT. SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH. BUT EVEN THE
RAP SHOWS THE MOISTURE SOURCE YESTERDAY THAT RESULTED IN ISOLATED
CONVECTION PARTS OF MISSOURI PIVOTING EAST INTO SEMO/SW IL FOR
TODAY. WILL CARRY 10-14 POPS AND MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA
IN THIS CORRIDOR. MAINLY DRY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

FOR MONDAY, A FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO THE AREA. WILL CARRY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR CONVECTION NRN 1/3 OF THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY STALL, WITH SMALL CHANCES CONTINUING NRN 1/3 OF THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT, THEN ACROSS A BIT MORE OF THE AREA WITH THE APPROACH
OF A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE HEADING ESE FROM THE PLAINS TUESDAY.
GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE ECMWF FOR POPS/WX MON-TUE. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND MOS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TO START OFF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE A LARGE
CLOSED LOW SYSTEM OVER EASTERN CANADA AND AN UPPER HIGH OVER
SOUTHERN ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO. OUR AREA WILL BE IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ENERGY
SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE AND IMPACTING US BY MID WEEK. THE SIGNAL
CONTINUES TO BE RATHER STRONG THAT THERE WILL BE A DECENT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PROBLEMS
LIE IN THE DETAILS...AS MODELS STILL DO NOT HAVE A GREAT HANDLE ON
THE ACTUAL STRENGTH...SPEED AND PATH OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE.

THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE FASTEST WITH THE SPEED OF THE INCOMING WAVE
AND HAS PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT STARTING
IN THE WEST. THEN AS THE WAVE MOVES EAST...WE WILL SEE CHANCES
CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY. AGAIN...BECAUSE OF THE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN
THE PLACEMENT OF THE QPF...NOT READY TO RAISE POPS INTO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY JUST YET. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY...AND WE CAN PROVIDE
BETTER DETAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS MODELS STABILIZE ON A
MORE CONSISTENT SOLUTION.

AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS NOW...WE SHOULD
SEE THIS UPPER WAVE DEPART WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT...MODELS
BECOME VERY MURKY WITH THE DETAILS ON WHAT WILL HAPPEN TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS LOOKS COMPLETELY OVERDONE WITH POPS WHILE
THE ECMWF HAS BEEN BACK AND FORTH SO MUCH WITH REGARDS TO POPS.
BEING THAT WE ARE STILL IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EVEN AFTER THE
MIDWEEK WAVE...SUFFICE IT TO SAY...WE WILL LIKELY HAVE PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS WEAK
PERTURBATIONS MOVE THROUGH ALOFT. TIMING AND LOCATION OF POPS
WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE SO WILL NOT GET FANCY WITH THAT ATTM.
HOWEVER...IT DOES LOOK LIKE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE DROPPING
SOUTH THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND THAT WILL HELP TO FOCUS SOME
CONVECTION. SO ONCE MODELS GAIN A BETTER HANDLE ON THE TIMING OF
THAT FRONT...WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO PINPOINT POPS WITH A BIT MORE
CONFIDENCE.

IT DOES APPEAR AS THOUGH THE WEEKEND MIGHT BE DRY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE FINALLY TRIES TO BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SFC. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY COOL DOWN
A BIT AS THIS OCCURS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 531 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THETA-E CONVERGENCE ALONG/JUST WEST OF MS RIVER IN ECNTL MO HAS
LED TO SOME BLOWOFF SCT-BKN MID CLOUD AFFECTING PRIMARILY KCGI
(BUT ALSO KPAH) EARLY THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD DISSIPATE LATER
THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS AND LGT WINDS MAY
ALLOW SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG...ESP AT MORE PRONE KCGI. LITTLE CHANGE
TO INHERITED SCT HIGH CLOUD TMRW WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLYS DEVELOPING.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$



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