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000
FXUS63 KPAH 060217
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
817 PM CST Thu Dec 5 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 815 PM CST THU DEC 5 2013

Currently making only minor adjustments to snow/sleet locations in
the grids. There are some slight differences between the latest
NAM and RAP soundings with the NAM a tad warmer. Will keep the mix
but move the snow line a bit farther south. Will up snow amounts
in some areas as Du Quoin is already measuring 2 inches.

Over SEMO now getting reports of sleet. CC product from radar
indicating a mix of snow with bursts of sleet. Expect that to
continue for a good portion of the night except for the extreme
southeast 3 or 4 counties where there might be more icing.

There is currently a lull over west Kentucky but we expect this to
fill in slowly as precipitation is increasing to our south. The
RAP and NAM models keeps a general lull over west Kentucky
through about 9z. Models seem to be hinting at the increase in
intensity over the entire area around midday tomorrow.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST THU DEC 5 2013

The winter storm is a couple of hours earlier than expected, but
the overall evolution has been as expected so far. The
precipitation has quickly transitioned to sleet over much of
southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Will allow the warning
to continue as is.

The main shift in guidance, led by the 12Z NAM is to hang onto a
very warm layer aloft longer into the event. The southeast corner
of the area may never see much in the way of snow before the
precipitation ends. The forecast has been shift a bit more toward
freezing rain/ice and less sleet and snow over much of west
Kentucky and Missouri Boot Heel region. A half inch of ice is
likely over much of this area, with just an inch or two of sleet
and snow. Over the northern portions of the area the 6-8" swath of
sleet and snow still looks good, and may not be high enough given
some sleet accumulations we have already received this afternoon.
The overall timing remains the same with the precipitation coming
to a rapid end from west to east Friday afternoon.

North winds generally 10 to 15 mph will continue to bring in much
cooler air through the short term period. Single digit temperatures
are expected over much of the area Friday night, and negative wind
chills are now forecast over much of the area Friday night as
well.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST THU DEC 5 2013

Models continue to show low pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico
12z Sunday, with an inverted trof extending east of the PAH forecast
area.  Models continue to trend a little farther east, which would
lessen amounts across our area.  However, this will also keep our
region in colder air, thus indicating a more persistent wintry mix
and less potential for our southeast counties, where the highest QPF
should be, to change to rain on Sunday.  Precipitation will spread
northwest across our counties late Saturday night and continue
through the day Sunday.  Light amounts of snow, sleet and a little
freezing rain will be possible across southeast Missouri, southern
Illinois and southwest Indiana by the time the precipitation ends
late Sunday afternoon or Sunday evening.

Across west Kentucky, and possibly into extreme southeast Missouri
and extreme southern Illinois, more significant amounts of freezing
rain and sleet are possible.  With almost all of the region below
freezing through the entire event, whatever falls will freeze and/or
accumulate.  Southern portions of the Pennyrile region of west
Kentucky have the best chance for temperatures to climb above
freezing, but with the best QPF in this area, a tenth to a quarter
inch of ice accumulation will be possible before the temperatures
potentially climb to above freezing.  Lesser amounts of ice are
expected across the rest of west Kentucky and adjacent areas.

Overall confidence is not very high right now, due to current models
trends, but fortunately amounts have trended downward from a couple
of days ago.  If the GFS pans out, amounts would still be pretty
significant, but ECMWF, NAM and GEM all show higher QPF mainly over
portions of west Kentucky or to our east.  Also, how much snow/ice
pack is left from the winter event just getting started across our
region will have an impact on temperatures and potential
accumulations.  By late Sunday night the wintry precip, mainly snow
and sleet by that point, should gradually taper off from west to
east, with a return of dry conditions after 12z Monday.

High pressure will build across the Central Plains Monday and slowly
slide east through mid week, centered over the middle Mississippi
valley by 12z Wednesday.  Very cold air will settle into our region
for the early part of the work week.  Highs Monday will range from
the middle 20s north to the lower 30s south, then only in the 20s
area wide Tuesday.  Lows both Monday night and Tuesday night will
range from the middle single digits north to the middle teens
southeast.  By Wednesday and Thursday, with plenty of sunshine, high
temperatures will rebound a little, back into the middle 20s to
middle 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 543 PM CST THU DEC 5 2013

MVFR cigs/vsbys should gradually deteriorate to IFR through the
period. FZRA/PL at KCGI/KEVV expected to continue through the night.
Changeover to snow should be around 15Z at KCGI and 18Z at KEVV.
At KPAH rain should change over to FZRA/PL by 02Z, then over to
snow around 17Z. At KOWB rain should change over to FZRA/PL around
05Z, then over to snow around 20Z. Northerly winds at 10-15 mph
gusting to 20-25 mph should continue through most of the period.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 PM CST Friday FOR ILZ075>078-
     080>094.

MO...WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 PM CST Friday FOR MOZ076-086-087-
     100-107>112-114.

IN...WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 PM CST Friday FOR INZ081-082-
     085>088.

KY...WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 PM CST Friday FOR KYZ001>008-010-
     011-013>016-018>020.

     WINTER STORM WARNING from Midnight tonight to 9 PM CST Friday
     FOR KYZ009-012-017-021-022.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PS
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...RT
AVIATION...JP