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000
FXUS63 KPAH 141740
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1240 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017


.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH Sunday Night)
ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT FRI JUL 14 2017

Latest radar and satellite trends suggest heavy rain and
thunderstorms are on the downward trend with warming tops and
decreasing reflectivities.

Short term CAMs suggest a relative downward trend in coverage
through about 18-19 UTC. Expect some sunshine over the southern
sections during the morning which will increase the instability
and soundings suggest convection should be able to go by the time
suggested by the CAMs

As with yesterday, decent instability with weak deep layer sheer
will allow for strong to maybe isolated severe during the
afternoon and early evening. Steering winds are weak so locally
heavy rain will be the main hazard.

Models are little slower to push the deep RH/cold front to our
south now delaying it until late on Saturday. So lingering chances
for showers and a few thunderstorms will continue across the
southern sections. Sunday looks to be dry across the area.

The air behind this front is slightly drier with dew points in the
mid to upper 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT FRI JUL 14 2017

The general split ridge West/trof East theme is maintained through
the entirety of the long term forecast, with the PAH FA coming
increasingly under the influence of high pressure/ridge with time.
The gfs/blend again picked up on the pieces of energy diving overtop
the ridge and into the base of the mean trof (east of us) early in
the period, but seems overdone with its qpf. We liked the cleaner
deterministic ECMWF, which keeps a dry forecast until Day 7. By
then, the air mass is increasingly heating/destabilizing, esp
during the heat of the day, so we`re comfortable enough with Pops
appearing again in the forecast then. Before that, while a slight
chance may exist, we`ve chosen that cleaner approach and just made
any Pop "silent", or just a down click or two from the inherited
blend.

90s will begin their reappearance in the forecast Monday, mainly
western counties more under the influence of the ridge. As the ridge
shifts slightly to the east, we see highs/lows begin to bump up
accordingly, and we`ve adjusted the highs particularly, upclicking a
degree or two as we head through the mid week. With dew points
similarly upclicking, that`ll translate to a return of 90s/70s for
commonplace highs/lows, with heat indices nudging upwards toward the
century mark, esp becoming more commonplace by Days 6-7.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017

Main challenge for this afternoon is the timing and coverage of
convective activity in and near the WFO PAH TAF sites. Remnant
outflow boundaries from overnight rain activity complicating
determination of mean wind direction. In the absence of distinct
rain signals, utilized vicinity showers. Kept ceilings/cloud bases
in and visibilities in VFR category.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PS
SHORT TERM...PS
LONG TERM...DH
AVIATION...Smith