Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 182239
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
539 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A widespread hard freeze is expected tonight. Tender early
  season vegetation will be damaged or killed.

- Strong southwest winds and continued low humidity will create
  an elevated fire danger Tuesday.

- Still lots of uncertainty in the details for Thursday and
  Friday. Temperatures should be near normal and any rain should
  be light.

- Our next significant storm system will likely arrive early
  next week. Heavy rain and winds seem like the main concerns at
  this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Gusty northwest winds will subside quickly with sunset this
evening, and with dewpoints in the teens, temperatures will
plummet quickly. Lows are expected to drop well into the 20s,
with much of the region seeing lower to middle 20s which would
create a hard freeze. Southwest winds will attempt to develop
before daybreak over the northern half of the Quad State which
could lead to some warming before sunrise, so the low
temperature is likely to occur in the early overnight hours. We
used the 25th percentile of all guidance for the low temperature
forecast tonight.

As low pressure descends into the Great Lakes region, the
pressure gradient will tighten quickly across the Quad State on
Tuesday. In response, southwest winds will increase quickly in
the morning and by midday will be sustained at 15 to 20 mph with
gusts 20 to 35 mph. Concern for a Wind Advisory has decreased
significantly as it appears that lower mixing depth will hold
down the gust potential sufficiently to prevent gusts over 40
mph. However, these strong winds along with very dry air will
create an elevated fire danger which will be discussed further
in the Fire Weather section. We plan to issue a Special Weather
Statement to discuss the hard freeze tonight and the gusty winds
and fire danger for tomorrow.

A weak frontal boundary will move south through the region
Tuesday night, allowing high pressure to nose southward into the
region. Despite the high pressure, temperatures Wednesday will
climb above normal ranging from the upper 50s to middle 60s.
More dry air will eventually filter over the Evansville Tri
State and that will result in some more sub-freezing low
temperatures. At least for now this should be a brief, light
freeze.

For Wednesday night through Friday, the medium range guidance
continues to struggle handling a southern stream short wave
trough as it moves from the southern Plains to the lower
Mississippi Valley Thursday into Friday. The general consensus
is for it to be squashed by northwest flow in the northern
stream limiting any rainfall over the Quad State. The NBM still
has PoPs mainly across the south Thursday and then over much of
the region Thursday night into Friday. The QPF is very light
which certainly makes sense.

Surface high pressure should keep the region dry Saturday with
near to slightly above normal temperatures. For Sunday into
Monday, guidance is in agreement in troughing in the west and
ridging in the west. This will lead to southwest flow aloft over
the Quad State with increasing southerly flow at the surface.
Eventually a portion of the trough will lift out and push a
front through the Quad State along with a good chance of
showers. At this time, it looks like Sunday will be dry and then
PoPs ramp up from the west Sunday night into Monday. Moisture
return looks to be limited, so thunderstorms are not currently
forecast. However, heavy rainfall is a possibility, along with
strong southerly winds.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 539 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

VFR conditions through Tuesday. Light west winds tonight will
become SSW 15 to 25 kts on average starting around 14-15z
Tuesday and continue throughout the afternoon. In the very near
term, clouds with bases 4-5k/ft east of a KMVN-KEHR-KBWG line
will shift off to the east through early evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 308 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Strong southwest winds are expected on Tuesday. Sustained winds
will be 15-20 mph with gusts 20-35 mph possible. Mixing is
likely to be more efficient than advertised and that would lead
to warmer temperatures and lower humidity. To that end we used
the NBM 10th percentile for dewpoints and the 75th percentile
for high temperatures. That brought the relative humidity down
into the 25-30% over most of the region. The Mark Twain National
Forest may drop a bit lower, but should have the weakest winds.

After collaborating with neighboring offices and consulting some
of our land management partners we decided to just issue a
Special Weather Statement advertising an elevated fire danger,
as winds, humidity and fuels will all be marginally near
critical thresholds. Fuels are definitely drying out, but with
temperatures struggling to reach 60, it will be difficult to get
fires going without help. However, any fires that do get going
Tuesday will spread quickly and be difficult to control.

The dry air will likely remain over the region until late this
coming weekend, but winds will not be that strong, so the
overall fire danger through the end of the week should be
rather limited.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...CN
FIRE WEATHER...DRS


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