Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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060
FXUS63 KPAH 070539 AAB
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1139 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1139 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Updated the AVIATION discussion for the 06Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 221 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Confidence remains high with upcoming system.

A strong cold front will reach the northwestern border of our CWA
at 18Z on Sunday and should be completely through by 04Z on
Monday. An upper level low will move across the Great Lakes with
impressive northerly flow out of Canada on the backside.

Moisture just begins to reach the system late in the afternoon
Sunday and may squeeze out a few sprinkles over the northern
sections.

Better moisture is available over the central and eastern section
Sunday night. After Midnight, colder temperatures really start to
move in and 850 temps/soundings support at least a rain/snow mix.

Wrap around moisture will be in the form of snow showers on
Monday. With wind gusts over 20 mph, may be a few locally intense
snow squalls especially over the north and east sections. It is
too early to attempt to determine better locations at this time.

By Monday Night, models agree that the deeper moisture will be
generally east of the Mississippi.

Snow ratios increase from about 14 to 1 on Monday to over 20 to 1
Tuesday. Total snow amounts range from a tenth or so near the
Mississippi River to between 1 and 2 inches over parts of Pike and
Spencer counties in southwest Indiana. However, the winds will
blow the light fluffy snow around so it may be quite difficult to
measure therefore the impacts look to be minimal at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 221 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

The coldest days of the seven day period will be on Tuesday and
Wednesday. The main upper level trough axis will be to our east to
start out the day on Tuesday, but the core of the coldest air will
be partly over our region. 850 mb temperatures drop down to at least
-15 deg C by 12Z Tuesday morning. Looking at CIPS analog data, the
top analogs suggest we will only see highs in the lower 30s and
maybe even upper 20s in some locales. We will be in between sfc
weather systems as well, with a low pressure system to our east and
an incoming high pressure system from the northwest. This will leave
our region in a fairly stout gradient and make for a rather chilly
morning on Tuesday as cold air advection continues.

The deep upper trough responsible for bringing this frigidness and
cloudiness to the area, will continue moving east Tuesday and
Wednesday which allows upper heights to finally start rising. Before
the deeper moisture departs on Tuesday, there could be some leftover
flurries mainly during the morning over eastern parts of the area.

However, it takes a while for the cold air to vacate. In fact,
Wednesday morning will be even colder than Tuesday morning, with a
little less wind, as the aformentioned sfc high will be on our
doorstep, but there will be enough wind to make temperatures in the
teens feel even worse with wind chills bottoming out in the single
digits. We will likely see highs still only in the upper 20s to
lower 30s on Wednesday as well. As this sfc high builds into the
region for Wednesday, we will maintain quiet weather conditions.

The high will shift east Wednesday evening and winds attempt to
shift around briefly to the southeast in some locations, before a
weak low pressure system passes by mainly to our west. In the upper
levels, the flow remains northwesterly and we will be dealing with a
few minor perturbations from time to time, but each signal noted
so far in the models is not consistent in time or space and too
weak to mention in the forecast right now.

Therefore, will maintain dry weather through Saturday. Temperatures
will get into the 40s for highs by Thursday and Friday in most
locations with lower readings again by Saturday when another cold
Canadian high builds over the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1139 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR conditions are expected at all sites through the period,
however a frontal passage in the last 6-7 hours of the period will
bring an increase in cloudiness. South southwest winds AOB 5 knots
overnight will pick up to 10-12 knots with gusts up to 15-18 knots
after 16Z, then swing around to the west AOB 10 knots 23-00Z in
the wake of the frontal passage.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PS
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...JP



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