Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 162347

647 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

Issued at 208 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

(Note to customer: This section includes a discussion covering both
the short and long term forecast periods).

Surface High pressure migrates east across the mid to upper Ohio
river valley tonight-tmrw. Some weak warm air advection returns,
mainly in the Semo Ozarks, around the High`s backside, with small
rain chances Wednesday.

Afterwards, upper ridging/heights rising leads to a more robust
warmup as high pressure to the east pumps warm southerlies across
the mid MS/lower OH valley. Temps will return to summer like 80s
by this weekend, with lows and dew points likewise climbing back
to more summer like humidity levels in the 60s.

This will all occur ahead of a developing front that will approach
Saturday, and then sweep into the region with high chance cat Pops
from Sat night-Sun night. After this system`s passage, we cool
back to seasonal temps for early next week.


Issued at 645 pm CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

The big key for this 00z Wednesday forecast issuance will be the
timing of the lift associated with the approaching warm air
advection and developing warm front over Missouri tonight into
Wednesday. Introduced vicinity showers as far east as KEVV,
switching over to categorical showers at KCGI and KPAH after 20z
Wednesday. With the exception of climatological favored MVFR and
isolated LIFR fog development at KCGI, VFR conditions should
prevail with this forecast package for the remainder of the WFO PAH
TAF sites.




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