Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 050807
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
207 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 207 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

Surface high pressure and a s/wv ridge will result in quiet wx
today. Expect some high clouds at times. Mid level energy/trof
will move SE from the Plains tonight to the Gulf coast by 00z
Sunday. Some clouds, but no precip expected with this system. It
will be mild today through Sunday, seasonably cold at night. Our
next chance of precip will be with a digging H5 trof/low into the
Midwest and Great Lakes region Sunday night. Will carry low chance
PoPs for rain Sunday evening, rain/snow overnight. QPF is rather
light and temps are forecast mostly above 32F. Used a blend of MOS
and existing numbers for highs/lows.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 207 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

Good synoptic agreement among forecast models and their ensembles
results in higher than average confidence in the long term, though
the specific timing of individual waves in fast cyclonic flow
remains somewhat less certain during the first half of next week.

Upper level energy progged to come onshore into British Columbia and
the Pacific Northwest Friday night is forecast to move across
southern Canada before taking a southeast dive into the Upper
Midwest late in the weekend. This will amplify the upper level
pattern across the lower 48 and result in the development of a deep
low pressure system over the Great Lakes region early in the new
week.

Cold air advection will be in full force by Monday with the passage
of the initial cold front Sunday night. Perturbations streaming
southward in the cyclonic flow on the back side of the upper low
will keep a chance of light precipitation in the forecast across at
least a part of the forecast area into Tuesday.

Models are still not in the best agreement on lower boundary layer
temperatures Monday, which will make a difference between rain and
snow. At this time, we maintain the mention of both on Monday.
However, I still would not be surprised to see a lowering of
forecast temperatures as the period draws closer, which would result
in primarily snow. Anything that falls Monday night and Tuesday
should be in the form of a powdery light snow.

While precipitation is forecast to be relatively light, some minor
snow accumulation certainly cannot be ruled out Monday into Tuesday.
Minor impacts from this system should be primarily east of the
Mississippi River on Monday, then migrating into just southwest
Indiana and the Pennyrile region of western Kentucky by Tuesday.

The upper low should be departing the region by Tuesday night and
Wednesday, but continued cold northwest flow will likely stick
around through much of the week. Nonetheless, some deamplification
in the northwest flow pattern should result in a moderating trend by
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 207 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

VFR conditions with variable high cloud cover. West winds
5-10 kts today, light tonight.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$


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