Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
FXUS63 KPAH 021805
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1205 PM CST Sun Mar 2 2014
Updated aviation section for 18Z TAFs.
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
Running short on time so will try and keep this as brief as
possible. The potential still exists for a significant winter storm
from early this morning into midday Monday. The threat for ice
accumulation seems somewhat diminished, but the snow threat has
A cold front over our far southeast counties at the time of this
writing will be just south and east of our CWA around midday, then
continue to drift southeast this afternoon. Due to warm air
advection and isentropic upglide just above the surface, freezing
precipitation is just beginning to break out over our northwestern
counties. The transition from rain to freezing rain is expected to
migrate southeast through the day today. By late afternoon the
freezing line is expected to make it completely through our CWA.
This evening as the deeper cold (sub-freezing) air filters into the
area from the northwest, freezing rain will begin changing over to
sleet and snow. Current storm total ice accumulations are expected
to range from around a quarter inch over over our northwest counties
to three quarters of an inch over our southeast counties. Storm
total snow accumulations are expected to range from four to six
inches over the northern two thirds of our CWA, and two to four
inches or less over the remainder of the area.
The best chances for precipitation, ice accumulation, etc should be
from this afternoon through Monday morning. As a weather system
lifts northeast out of the southern plains tonight, it will form a
wave on the aforementioned frontal boundary thereby producing an
overrunning scenario consisting of impressive QPF amounts over our
area during the evening and overnight hours which will make for
significant amounts of ice, sleet, and snow. The combination of
wintry weather will likely cause extremely difficult travel
conditions as well as the potential for power outages today and
As the system pulls away on Monday, wrap around precipitation in the
form of snow will linger over the southeast half of the CWA through
midday with minor additional accumulations, then move off to the
east of our area. Due to the additional snowfall Monday, extended
the warning for the appropriate area to midday. This a very dynamic
system that bears watching very closely. Forecast confidence remains
rather high, but no doubt as we progress through the event, some
adjustments will be needed.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
The long term period will be mainly dry with temperatures slowly
moderating to near seasonal norms. The main forecast issue in the
long term will be temperatures...since precip potential will be nil
or very low.
Night time lows Tuesday...Wednesday...and Thursday nights will be
cold as winds become light over snow and ice cover each night. Low
temps should be in the teens and 20s. There will be a few factors
that will limit the temp plunge. Relatively warm temps aloft /just
above freezing at 850 mb/ should have some effect. Another factor
will be relatively high dew points compared to recent Arctic air
masses. In addition...some mid and high clouds are likely as a
series of shortwaves progress through the west/northwest flow.
The moderation in daytime highs will also be limited by snow and ice
cover. The models appear to have a pretty good handle on this. The
modelled snow cover is indicated by the surface thermal trough that
persists over the Lower Ohio Valley through the week. Even with 850
mb temps above freezing and seasonably higher sun angles...surface
temps will likely not get out of the 30s on Wednesday. By
Friday...the combination of southwest flow and March sun will push
temps well above freezing. Will maintain forecast highs around 50.
A weak cold front will move southeast across our region next
weekend. This front will be accompanied by very little moisture...so
pops will be kept in the slight chance category. With 850 mb temps
near zero...precip type could be either rain or snow.
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014
Another round of freezing rain and sleet will spread across the
forecast terminals this afternoon, resulting in significant icing.
The precipitation will change to mainly sleet by late afternoon
and early evening, then to snow by late evening and overnight. On
top of the ice, several inches of snow accumulation is expected.
Low MVFR conditions will frequently be reduced to IFR in heavier
precipitation. The precipitation will come to an end late tonight
and early Monday morning, but MVFR ceilings will remain. Sustained
northerly winds of 10 to 20 knots will gust as high as 25 to 30
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING until Noon CST Monday FOR ILZ077-078-082-
WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 AM CST Monday FOR ILZ075-076-080-
MO...WINTER STORM WARNING until Noon CST Monday FOR MOZ108>112-114.
WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 AM CST Monday FOR MOZ076-086-087-
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING until Noon CST Monday FOR INZ081-082-
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING until Noon CST Monday FOR KYZ003>005-007-
ICE STORM WARNING until 9 AM CST Monday FOR KYZ001-002-006-008-