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000
FXUS63 KPAH 200806
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
306 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 306 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

An upper level ridge will move off to our east today. A weak
surface high to our east and low pressure to our west will put us
in southerly flow today, which will help temperatures reach the
upper 70s to near 80 degrees. Clouds will increase from the west
today and tonight as the surface low slides northeast. South winds
tonight and the increasing cloud cover will keep temperatures
above seasonal normals in the lower to middle 50s.

The low pressure system will drag a cold front across the middle
Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys Monday night. Out ahead of the
front, showers and thunderstorms will move into western portions
of the PAH forecast area Monday morning. Both GFS and NAM bring
QPF into southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois by 18z Monday,
while ECMWF spreads QPF across the entire PAH forecast area.
Leaned more toward the GFS/NAM solution, and went with chance to
slight chance pops for the western two thirds of our counties
Monday morning. Chances will increase across the entire area
Monday afternoon and Monday evening, with all counties with high
chance to likely pops by Monday evening. Models are in good
agreement tapering off precip from northwest to southeast late
Monday night into Tuesday morning, through NAM is just a little
quicker than GFS and ECMWF. Went with slight chance pops northwest
to high chance pops southeast after 06z Tuesday, then just kept
some slight chance pops across our southeast counties Tuesday
morning.

High pressure will build over the Great Lakes region late Tuesday
into Tuesday night. Winds out of the northeast will help cool down
conditions across the PAH fa, with temperatures falling back to
near to slightly below seasonal readings in the upper 60s to lower
70s and lower to middle 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 306 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

High pressure will move east Wednesday, with dry weather still the
rule. An upper level disturbance will move across the area Thur/Thur
night and bring the region a chance of shra/tsra. Should be out of
here by 12z Fri. ECMWF/GFS timing similar with the system`s departure.
Will keep conditions dry til Saturday night. Only slight chances Sat
night. GFS a bit more robust with moisture and QPF. May be looking
at higher PoPs once we bring Sunday into the long term picture.
Temps were a blend of previous numbers (persistence), and the latest
MOS guidance.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 306 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period with just high and
mid clouds increasing across the region from the west ahead of an
approaching cold front. Light east to northeast winds in the
morning will become south at 5 to 10 kts by this afternoon, then
become light after 00z. No vsby restrictions.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RST
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...RST