Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 181827
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1227 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 1227 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

The warming trend is underway with high pressure off to our south
and east. The return flow has current temps beyond what we saw
yesterday for highs. We will go a tad below MOS again tonight
near WMODEL in house (weighted) data as it did marginally o.k. for
last nights lows. With the wind up tonight, do not think we will
tank despite snow cover. Dry Friday into Friday night, with
increasing clouds with time. For Saturday through Saturday night,
will go with a slight chance of light rain and/or drizzle, due to
a substantial increase in sfc-850mb moisture, and isentropic lift
(290K), WAA forecast both periods. Otherwise considerable cloud
cover. This out ahead of a vigorous H5 trof out west, with s/wv
ridging ahead of it across our area. Used a blend of the GFS and
NAM overall as they are in reasonable agreement.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 213 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

Main concern for this period will be a storm system impacting the
region later Sunday into the first part of Monday. Overall fairly
good model agreement, just some timing issues which is common at
this time range.

The period begins with an upper trough pushing east into the central
U.S. At the surface, low pressure will develop over Kansas and move
northeast into the upper Midwest/Great Lakes region on Monday. Some
timing issues exist with the speed of the upper trough and
associated surface low. The 00z operational GFS continues to be
around 6 hours faster than the 00z ECMWF and Canadian models. Thus
the GFS is faster bringing the precipitation into and exiting the
area. But the main timing of the precipitation looks to be in the
Sunday evening through Monday morning window.

Models are showing very marginal instability, but there are some
hints, especially elevated. Showalters are forecast to be 0 to
slightly negative, while K Index values are at or above 30. Thus
included slight thunder mention for Sunday evening/night across
mainly the southern half of the area. Ample wind shear will be
present, as is common this time of year. An 850mb jet is forecast to
strengthen over the region with upwards of 60+ kts Sunday night.
Will need to continue to monitor this system closely in the coming
days.

QPF amounts generally look to be in the range of a 1/3 inch east to
1 inch west at this time. This combined with the saturated ground
from snow melt could cause some flooding issues. Once this system
passes, the rest of the period looks to be dry.

As far as temperatures go, we look to be well above normal in the
50s on Sunday, possibly touching 60 in a few areas. Winds remain
west/southwest at the surface Monday and Tuesday, thus not expecting
a big push of cold air. In fact temperatures look to remain near to
slightly above normal much of next week, with highs in the 40s to
low 50s. A welcome change to the wintry scene we have endured lately!

The next precipitation event looks to arrive around the 26th/27th of
the month.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1028 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

VFR through midday Friday. Mainly clear. SSW winds 5 to 10 kts.
Gusts 14 to 18 kts possible this afternoon.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$


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