Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 260813
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
313 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Average confidence in the short term due to minor model disagreement
with two systems affecting the area.

At the time of this writing, a surface/upper low combo was located
just to the north and west of our CWA and is forecast to move
northeast today toward the Great Lakes region. A N-S cold front from
the low was bisecting our CWA. Scattered showers were noted on radar
generally along and east of the front.

In the wake of the frontal passage this morning, precipitation
chances will slowly diminish from the southwest throughout the day.
The boundary is forecast to become W-E and quasi-stationary along
and/or near our southern CWA border by late this afternoon.

CWA-wide dry conditions will not last for long however.
Precipitation chances will begin to overspread the region late
tonight from the west as the quasi-stationary frontal boundary lifts
back to the north as a warm front in response to a system emerging
from the southern plains moves toward the region. Precipitation
chances max out Monday into Monday evening as the system crosses the
region. The back edge of the precipitation associated with this
system should be exiting our CWA late Monday night.

Beyond that, high pressure at the surface and weak ridging aloft
should keep the region dry through the rest of the period.

Temperatures will generally be 8 to 12 degrees above normal through
the period.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

The ECMWF takes our next low pressure system across northern
portions of the PAH forecast area Thursday night, while the GFS
takes it farther south and the Canadian moves it well north of our
region.  A few showers may sneak into our far west counties
Wednesday morning, but models all spread significant precipitation
across the PAH forecast area late Wednesday night into Thursday.
Went with likely to categorical pops Thursday into Thursday night
across the entire area.  With current low confidence in the track of
the low, just how much thunder we will see is in question, but for
now went with slight chances mainly during the day Thursday.
Temperatures will be above normal through the end of the work week,
especially overnight lows.

Precipitation chances will taper off from west to east Friday into
Friday night as the low moves well east of our area.  Models show
surface high pressure building southward as an upper level ridge
moves over the middle Mississippi River valley. This will give us
dry and near seasonal conditions for Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

A north south band of showers will bring MVFR conditions to KEVV
and KOWB in the next few hours. Guidance seems to be overdone with
MVFR ceilings overnight. There is a fairly strong signal for some
showers to spread eastward across the area first toward daybreak
at KCGI and then eastward across the other TAF sites through the
morning and into the early afternoon. MVFR conditions can be
expected with these showers. A brief TSRA cannot be completely
ruled out Sunday, but coverage will be too sparse to mention.
Southwest winds may gust into the teens behind the showers in the
afternoon. Solid high clouds are expected to overspread the area
heading into the evening. If they are not as thick as expected,
with light south winds, fog may become an issue by late evening
at all sites.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...DRS


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