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000
FXUS63 KPAH 070848
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
248 AM CST Fri Mar 7 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

We will remain under the influence of weak high pressure today as
a s/wv ridge moves from west to east across the area. The ridge
will break down, and allow a trof to move approach Saturday and
move across the area by Sunday morning. Will increase clouds
tonight through Saturday, and carry a chance of rain Saturday
afternoon into Saturday night. Latest output shows nearly all
liquid, so just kept it R- for now. It`ll clear back out for
Sunday through Sunday night. Temperatures will be noticeably milder
next couple of days. Used a blend of MOS and bias corrected output
for temps.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

Unseasonably warm conditions can be expected across the PAH
forecast area Monday into Tuesday with southwest flow across the
region.  By late Tuesday however, 00z ECMWF still tries to bring
some light rain into portions of the FA ahead of an area of low
pressure developing over the southern Plains. 00z GFS want to hold
off on the rain til Tue night. Confidence is increasing that many
locations will see rain Tuesday night into Wed morning as the sfc
low lifts ne into the Ohio Valley.  The latest GFS still ends any
precip by 12z Wednesday, while the ECMWF keeps significant precip
across our region into Wednesday and even Wednesday night. In
fact...if the wrap around precip lasts into Wed night, a change over
to some light snow would be possible as cold air funnels in. By
Thursday, Chilly Canadian high pressure should build in from the nw,
bringing dry weather and taking temperatures back below seasonal
normals.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 248 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

Brief MVFR vsbys possible through 12-14z. Otherwise, VFR with SKC
to just a few high clouds. Light winds. SSW 4-8 kts at times
through the daylight hours.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$