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000
FXUS63 KPAH 190807
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
306 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 306 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

Models show an upper level ridge building over the Central Plains,
sliding east across the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys
late today into Sunday. This will keep conditions dry and mild
across the region through the weekend.  Winds will shift back to
the south on Sunday, helping temperatures climb into the upper
70s.  Clouds will increase Sunday night ahead of our next weather
system.

Models in are good agreement on timing of moving a cold front
across the PAH forecast area Monday into Monday night.
Precipitation chances will move into mainly western portions of
the area by 18z Monday, and went with chance pops across southeast
Missouri and southwest Illinois. ECMWF generates some light QPF
farther east than GFS and NAM, so included slight chance pops
across the rest of the fa. Chances will increase through the day,
with good chance pops across all but our far east counties Monday
afternoon, and across the entire area Monday night. GFS and NAM
both generate some CAPE across the entire region Monday and Monday
night, with LI`s of -1 to -3 through the day Monday, so continued
to include slight chances of thunderstorms.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 306 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

The extended forecast period appears to be fairly quiet early
on...but the signal for precipitation looks to be fairly strong for
Thursday night through Friday.

In the meantime, we will see a front exiting the area on Tuesday.
There is a small possibility of lingering POPS in western KY early
Tuesday morning as the front exits. Although we might see a few
degree cool down behind this front...it still looks like highs in
the lower 70s will be likely on Tuesday.

An upper level ridge will start to build into the region late
Tuesday night into Wednesday. High pressure at the sfc will allow
for winds to be easterly which will keep us in the low 70s.

Our warm up will occur on Thursday when winds become southerly as
the sfc high moves east. In fact, winds will likely become rather
gusty. Meanwhile, we will be watching a cold front advancing from
the west. Models indicate that most of the area should probably stay
dry on Thursday. If precipitation occurs, it would be most likely
across our western fringes. However, the 00Z and 12Z ECMWF are in
very good agreement that the best chances for precipitation will be
Thursday evening/overnight and into Friday. GFS ensembles also
support this timing. However, the 00Z ECMWF came in with a lot less
QPF and much faster with timing. Therefore, will not get too carried
away with POPS since this system is still not totally resolved well
by the models. But, looking back on several runs of the GFS, it does
seem to be the most consistent at this time.

Precipitation should be exiting the area late in the day on
Friday...which will make for dry conditions for Friday night into
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1141 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

High pressure at the surface and aloft will keep conditions VFR
throughout the region for the entire 06Z TAF period. The outflow
cirrus shield will shift east by morning, and some cu development
will be possible for the afternoon and evening. Winds will be from
the northeast through the period. Speeds may pick up to near
10kts in the afternoon.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RST
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...DRS