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000
FXUS63 KPAH 300837
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
337 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 313 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

Short term will be dominated by stagnant closed low over southeast
Canada. Short wave energy rotating southeast through the Southern
Plains will probably remain shunted south of our forecast area
Thursday, taking the highest shower/thunderstorm chances across
OK and AR. Will leaving some small chc pops over portions of se MO
just in case that region receives a glancing blow, but any amounts
would be very light.

Another round of short wave energy will rotate southeast through
the Midwest on Friday. Most of this energy should stay north of
our region, but increasing moisture and instability during the day
could aid in at least some isolated thunderstorm development.

With the upper low firmly in place over se Canada will ensure that
temperatures remain below seasonal norms, tho there should be a
couple degrees warming each day. Saw no reason to deviate much
from the MAV/MET MOS numbers.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

With the beginning of the extended forecast period, the mean trough
axis with the deterministic medium range guidance moves to the
eastern edge of the WFO PAH forecast area. Any lingering
precipitation moves east of the trough axis Friday night into
Saturday over the Pennyrile region of West Kentucky.

Beyond Saturday, the eastern limb of the ridge axis, centered over
the four corners area of the desert Southwest, moves eastward into
the WFO PAH forecast area. This will bring more stable air aloft and
lesser moisture, effectively capping any convection for the area
through the remainder of the forecast period.  With the lack of
precipitation, etc...and greater thermal thickness and insolation, a
gradual rise in temperatures into the upper 80s can be expected for
the latter part of the forecast.


&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1132 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

Surface high pressure should keep the region dry at all TAF sites
through the period. With the exception of possible MVFR fog at
KCGI/KPAH between 09-12Z, VFR conditions should prevail through
the period, however cloud cover is expected to increase from west
to east during the latter half of the period as a storm system
develops over the southern plains. Calm winds overnight should pick up
out of the west southwest AOB 5 knots generally after 14Z, then go
calm again after 01Z.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...JP