Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 310400
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1100 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE KS/MO BORDER REGION IS
RIDGING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
IT IS PROVIDING MUCH NEEDED RELIEF FROM THE EXTREME HEAT OF RECENT
DAYS...AS WE BEGAN TODAY WITH LOW 60S DEW POINTS. THEY SHOULD HOVER
THERE...OR JUST SLIGHTLY CREEP UPWARD INTO THE MID 60S...BY THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL STILL BE A WELCOMED RELIEF ON THE INDEX SCALE
WITH AIR TEMPERATURE HIGHS DAILY IN THE UPPER 80S/NEAR 90. NIGHT
TIME LOWS WILL BE NOT FAR OFF THE DEW POINTS...RANGING FROM THE MID
TO PERHAPS UPPER 60S BY THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE MOST OF THE SUMMER...THE FORECAST WILL
REVOLVE AROUND SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS
STATES. PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE EAST COAST AND LOWER GREAT
LAKES WILL PLAY A GREATER ROLE IN OUR WEATHER THAN RECENT WEEKS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST
ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE PLAINS RIDGE. THE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP
CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY...BUT A SHORTWAVE MIGRATING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION COULD BRING PRECIP AS FAR SOUTH AS INTERSTATE 64
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPS AND DEW POINTS WILL CREEP UPWARD
IN THE SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW. DEW POINTS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB
TO AROUND 70. HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN A NOTABLE DRY BIAS IN DEW
POINT FORECASTS THIS SUMMER. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE EXCESSIVE
SOIL MOISTURE FROM NEAR RECORD MONTHLY RAINFALL.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SAG SOUTH
ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. MODEL TIMING
VARIES SIGNIFICANTLY. THE 12Z ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT OVER OUR
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE FORECAST WILL LEAN MORE
TOWARD THE 12Z GFS/GEFS...WHICH TAKES THE FRONT SOUTH OF OUR
REGION BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WITH THE FRONT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY. FOLLOWING THE FASTER GFS/GEFS...HIGH TEMPS
WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S BY THURSDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE
60S.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AS WIND FIELDS REMAIN
LIGHT IN THE MIDST OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WFO PAH TAF SITES.

UNRESTRICTED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES FORECAST WITH THE FRIDAY
06Z TAF ISSUANCE. CHANGE FOR EACH FORECAST GROUP IN TAF IS DUE TO
MAINLY DUE TO REQUIRED WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION CHANGES.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DH
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...SMITH


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