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FXUS63 KPAH 291729
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1229 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to numerous showers and storms expected through Monday.
  Torrential downpours, lightning, and gusty winds will be
  possible.

- Independence Day still looks seasonal with highs in the lower
  90s and a 20% chance for a shower or storm.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 140 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

With Pwat`s running AOA 2", locally heavy downpours will remain
the primary storm hazard today. While model generated average
qpf amounts are not necessarily concerning, localized amounts
may be, esp if they fall over areas that have already received a
thorough saturation from yesterday`s convection. With an H8
ridge of theta-E setting up in that vicinity, potentially
aggravating the heavy rain/localized flooding potential, we
continue our Flood Watch in the Ozarks per collaborative efforts
and potential for earlier convection there, repeating over
grounds that have received several inches of rainfall recently.

After today, our eyes turn to the cold front to our north that
drops down and makes its approach Monday. Pops again spike, esp
during the day, and the potential for localized heavy
rainfall/flooding remains. With the front`s entry and the upper
support driving it, we`ll see some damaging wind potential enter
the forecast picture with a 5% Marginal risk a stronger storm
may produce such.

Fropa may take/linger pops thru Tuesday before drying them out.
Dew points fall back into the 60s and highs in the 80s for the
mid week immediately thereafter, before heights begin to rise
again heading into the weekend. Temps respond by returning to
the 90s and dew points follow to the 70s again, but that`s not
unusual for this time of year. In response to the building
heat/humidity, small/diurnally driven instability pops return
then too.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Lower confidence forecast on timing and coverage of convection
this afternoon. Cloud cover and earlier rain has slowed
destabilization today. Can`t rule out SHRA or maybe isolated
thunder but don`t have more confidence to introduce any higher
probs than prob30 at least for now. AMD may become necessary if
higher confidence develops. Additional isolated shower or storm
activity is possible overnight. A cold front will move in from
the northwest late in the TAF period, most likely after 18z but
could offer scattered showers or storms toward the end of the
TAF period. Winds from the southwest around or less than 5
knots are expected.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for MOZ107-108.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Previous Fcter
AVIATION...AD