Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 200450
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1150 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

Updated aviation section for 06z TAF package.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 120 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

Large dome of high pressure aloft will continue to stretch all
the way from the eastern Rockies east through the mid MS River
Valley. This will assure us of more hot and muggy conditions
throughout the short term period. Will continue with heat
advisory headlines for afternoon heat indices in the 103 to 107
range. The H50 ridge will also serve to cap the atmosphere, so do
not even expect the normal pop up of thunderstorms during the heat
of the day. Extremely dry air will be in place in the mid levels
of the atmosphere. Thus, will keep most locations precip-free
right through Friday night.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

Above average confidence this weekend followed by lesser confidence
next week, particularly regarding rain chances.

Heat and humidity will remain over the region this weekend, but the
upper level ridge will be in the process of breaking down and
pushing off to our south and west. Heat index values will remain
above 100 and possibly exceeding 105 in spots on Saturday. Dry
conditions are expected for the most part through Saturday night
with mid levels temperatures remaining warm. A cold front is
expected to move in on Sunday and then slowly slide southward into
Monday. Rain chances will return across the whole region during this
time period. Precipitable water values are projected to increase to
2 inches or greater. Localized heavy rainfall will be possible,
especially later Sunday into Sunday evening and continuing into
Monday across our southern counties.

The 12z GFS and Canadian push the front all the way through the area
by Monday night into Tuesday bringing in cooler, drier air on
north/northeast winds. The 12z ECMWF holds up the front and
eventually washes it out across our area. Thus it keeps the warmer
temperatures and higher humidity going into next week for the
southern half of the region at least. Have less confidence in this
solution, and will disregard this for now.

Depending on how fast surface high pressure departs the region next
week, will dictate when return flow and possible rain chances return
to the area. Some guidance hints at bringing rain back in to much of
the area on Wednesday, however ensemble models suggests that we will
stay dry until Thursday or Friday of next week. Blended approach
keeps slight chance PoPs in for Wednesday.

Highs well into the 90s on Saturday will be replaced by temperatures
near normal early next week (upper 80s). Lows in the 70s this
weekend will give way to 60s next week. Dewpoints will also lower
from the 70s into the 60s by Monday in the north and Tuesday area
wide.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

MVFR fog possible between 09z-13z, otherwise VFR conditions
expected through the TAF period. FEW050 cu possible after 13z.
Light to calm winds overnight will become southwest around 5 kts
after 13z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.

IN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...SP
AVIATION...RST



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