Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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590
FXUS63 KPAH 261934
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
234 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Fri Aug 26 2016

Convection continues to rim around mid level high centered over
the Mid Atlantic states. Surface front has stalled just to our
north. Our winds will more likely be influenced by outflows. Will
continue with scattered convective chances into the evening across
the area, with a slow eastward progression possible. Lowest PoPs
will be across the KY Pennyrile. This same general theme will be
in the overnight forecast, better chances NW of the Ohio. There
may be a down trend this evening with loss of heating prior to the
overnight chance.

Another impulse will bring a chance of convection, best chances NW
of the Ohio Saturday, diminishing chances into the afternoon and
evening as the surface warm front, which never really makes it in
here, heads NE away from the CWFA. Kept it dry Saturday night,
with just diurnally enhanced slim chances Sunday into Sunday
evening. Little change in airmass. Used persistence and blended
MOS for temps.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Fri Aug 26 2016

The upper ridge is forecast to hold through Tuesday. After that,
the models hint at a strengthening trof over east Canada with a
building ridge from the central and northern Rockies into western
Canada, that should turn our mid level flow more to the northwest.
Will keep PoPs low chance for now, and mainly diurnal. Wednesday
into Wednesday night may be our peak chance time frame for
convection as a front comes into play. But overall confidence is
still somewhat low. Tended to favor the EC/ECENS solutions.
Therefore, we used the ECE/ECM MOS and blend numbers for temps in
the long term.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Fri Aug 26 2016

Convection over SEMO and S IL will gradually develop eastward this
afternoon, likely affecting KCGI and possibly even KPAH by late
afternoon. A few showers possible even up toward KEVV but too low
to mention at this time. Convection should largely decrease this
evening/overnight before a disturbance kicks off more SHRA/TSRA by
Saturday morning especially over northern counties. This activity
may affect KEVV and possibly KOWB. Will monitor and update if
needed as the time gets closer. Otherwise still a possibility at
MVFR vsbys toward sunrise Saturday due to fog. Winds will mostly
be light and variable but with generally more of a southeasterly
component to them thru the period.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$



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