Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
000
FXUS63 KPAH 152151
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
451 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry weather returns this weekend and continues into much of
next week.
- A dry arctic cold front will move through Saturday night,
causing lows to fall below freezing Sunday night and Monday
night. Temperatures quickly rebound by the middle of the week
with highs in the 60s.
- Next chance for rain arrives on Thursday with a low pressure
system, but rainfall amounts look to be light at this time.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 445 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024
Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024
Clouds will decrease from north to south through the evening
hours, with clear to mostly clear skies across our region by
around midnight. Cooler air will be filtering into our region,
with lows tonight 10 to 15 degrees colder than last night. Winds
will shift back to the southwest Saturday ahead of a cold front,
and with lots of sunshine, high temperatures will still be
around 10 degrees above normal.
A dry arctic cold front will move through the middle Mississippi
and lower Ohio valleys Saturday night. Low temperatures Saturday
night will still be around 5 degrees above normal, but much
colder air will build in behind the front for Sunday into Monday
night. Highs Sunday will be in the 50s, then on Monday, highs
will only reach the 40s. Lows Sunday night and especially
Monday night are bigger concerns. Although we are not officially
in the growing season, above normal temperatures have triggered
a lot flowers and tree budding. Lows Sunday night will drop
into the upper 20s to lower 30s, then Monday will be our coldest
night with readings in the middle to upper 20s.
Models show surface high pressure centered over the Central
Plains Monday, moving over the central Gulf Coast Tuesday into
Wednesday. This will keep the PAH forecast area dry, and by
Tuesday, winds will shift back to the southwest. Temperatures
Tuesday and Tuesday night will quickly rebound back to
seasonable readings, and for Wednesday, readings will be around
5 degrees above normal.
By Wednesday night into Thursday, models show a surface low
approaching from the west/southwest along with a mid/upper level
trof. This system spreads shower chances, and eventually some
thunderstorms, into our area late Wednesday night/Thursday, and
especially Thursday afternoon into Thursday night, persisting
into Friday. Of course, track and timing are still in question,
but expected rainfall is only around a tenth or less for any 6
hour period.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 445 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024
Bulk boundary layer oisture is soon to depart the terminals,
lingering longest at KOWB, where MVFR-low VFR bases may still
yield CIGs into the early evening hours. All models show dry
air overtaking the remainder of the column tonight as surface
high pressure builds in from the west...we`ll monitor these
trends to make sure they are coming to fruition, but will run
with the assumption that we`ll be going VFR soon or shortly
after Issuance time at all sites. As winds diminish and skies
clear as forecast, some patchy fog cannot be ruled out, but
guidance is more bullish on the dry air winning out, precluding
its insertion this package but it too is worth monitoring for
subsequent potential mention. Visual Flight Rules thereafter
prevail with a few high clouds tmrw as we resume southwesterlies
by/thru the planning phase of the forecast.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$