Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 071837
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
137 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

BOUNDARY SET UP ACROSS PAH FA IS HELPING FOCUS SHOWERS/STORMS
ALONG IT. HIGH PW`S AND EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCING STORMS IS ADDING
TO PREDECESSOR RAINS TO HEIGHTEN FLOOD CONCERNS...COLLABORATED FOR
FFA ACROSS ENTIRE FA THRU 00Z THU.

ANTICIPATE MORE OR LESS CONTINUAL PULSING OF STORMS ALONG BOUNDARY
AND REPEAT TRAINING OVER SAME AREAS THRU TONITE INTO TMRW...AS
PIECES OF ENERGY RUN ALONG IT WITH PARALLEL FLOW ATOP IT. THIS
WILL HEIGHTEN THE FLOODING CONCERNS AS WELL.

BEYOND THAT...TAPERING CHANCES AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT AND
STARTS TO SQUEEZE OUT/DISINTEGRATE SAID BOUNDARY WITH TIME.
CLOUDS/CONVECTION TO HOLD DIURNAL RANGES DOWN UNTIL THEN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

MODEL PREFERENCE - A BLEND OF THE 00Z GEFS AND 12Z ECMWF WITH A
MINOR INCORPORATION OF THE 00Z ECMWF. H5 RIDGE OVER THE SE U.S. AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD...WILL DRIFT WEST AND EVENTUALLY ALLOW MORE
PROMINENT NW FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST U.S.

HAVE JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF CONVECTION FAR NORTH...I64 FRIDAY AS A
WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE NE. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WE ANTICIPATE MAINLY DRY...HOT HUMID WEATHER GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF
THE UPPER HIGH AND THE DRIER AIRMASS FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY IT.
CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED HEAT OF THE DAY CONVECTION WITH
COVERAGE GENERALLY AOB 10 PERCENT. WITH NW FLOW ALOFT MORE OF AN
INFLUENCE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WILL INTRODUCE LOW CHANCE
CONVECTIVE POPS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE MODELS DEPICTION OF A FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. TEMPS WILL BE A BLEND OF MOS AND
EXISTING NUMBERS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN AREAL CONVECTION WILL IMPACT TERMINALS THRU
THE EVENING WITH REGARD TO BOTH CIGS/VSBYS. OVERNIGHT FOG MAY
LIMIT PREVALING VSBYS AND IFR RESTRICTIONS MAY APPLY LATE TONITE-
EARLY TMRW IN FOG/LOW CLOUD AND/OR PCPN. DAYTIME IMPROVEMENT WILL
BE GRADUAL WITH MVFR CIGS LINGERING AND VSBYS SLOW TO IMPROVE TO
VFR THRU THE PLANNING PERIOD.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR ILZ075>078-
     080>094.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MOZ076-086-087-
     100-107>112-114.

IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR INZ081-082-
     085>088.

KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$



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