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000
FXUS63 KPAH 181113
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
612 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING A WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE
EASTERN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA. PRECIP OVER THE FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF
OUR CWA WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AS A SHORT WAVE
PUSHES THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTHEAST.

MOISTURE WILL STILL BE PLENTIFUL BUT WITH NO UPPER SUPPORT...AFTER
PRECIP EXITS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF OUR CWA EARLY THIS MORNING
HAVING A HARD TIME JUSTIFYING PUTTING POPS ANYWHERE MOST OF THE DAY.
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS PRECIP CHANCES WILL
INCREASE OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA AS A SHORT WAVE DIVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERATED
FROM THIS FEATURE SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLY
BECOMING SEVERE OVER SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS SHOULD
KEEP THE REGION DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ON THURSDAY INTRODUCED
SCHC POPS OVER THE FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA AS A SHORT WAVE
SLIDES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF AN UPPER
RIDGE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS A 500 MB HIGH SITS OVER THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION IS EXPECTED IN THE
ABSENCE OF ANY SYNOPTIC SCALE BOUNDARIES.

850 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO HOVER AROUND OR JUST BELOW 20 C...WHICH
SUPPORTS GFS MOS HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. CURRENT FORECAST DEW POINTS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S YIELD HEAT INDICES A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN
ACTUAL TEMPS.

A QUASI STATIONARY SURFACE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL
PRODUCE A DECENT SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW...AVERAGING 10 TO 20 KNOTS
IN THE 1000/850 MB LAYER. THIS PERSISTENT FLOW SHOULD MIX OUT ANY
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES...MINIMIZING DEW POINT POOLING AND LOWERING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED POP UP STORMS DURING PEAK HEATING.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

DUE TO MOIST GROUND FROM HEAVY RAIN OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...THE
FORECAST WAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY MORE PESSIMISTIC. AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS
IN FOG WILL BURN OFF BY MID MORNING. SOME DIURNAL CU WILL FORM THIS
MORNING...POSSIBLY WITH A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS. SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CU THIS AFTERNOON WILL HAVE VFR BASES. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT PASSES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE
EVV/OWB AREAS. THE CU WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED
BY MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. THE CHANCE OF PATCHY FOG EARLY WED MORNING
APPEARS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/FIRE WX...JP
LONG TERM/AVIATION...MY