Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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403
FXUS63 KPAH 250713
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
213 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 213 AM CDT Sun Sep 25 2016

One more hot day on tap, then changes in store. Cold front will
approach our west counties by evening, bisect the area around 06z,
then clear our eastern areas before daybreak. Models continue to
show precip is post frontal, with some elevated instability
present. Will continue with chance PoPs for convection given
uncertainty with respect to coverage. Best chances seem to be NW
of the Ohio, lower SE. Will end precip rapidly by midday Monday.
Monday night through Tuesday night will be dry and noticeably
cooler as surface high pressure builds in, in the wake of the cold
front. Used a model blend and MOS for temps.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 213 AM CDT Sun Sep 25 2016

Fairly high confidence in the extended.

Especially the deterministic models have come into agreement with
the extended. Previous runs indicated a northwest flow giving way to
ridging and a slow warming trend. The latest runs however keep a
closed low over the east eastern part of the state keeping a
northwest flow over the area. This will keep a dry and much cooler
flow over the region with temperatures remaining below normal
through the upcoming week. The models do indicate ridging late in
the week so temperatures will once again start to rise but it will
remain moisture starved through the weekend. So little to no chance
of rain is expected in the extended. The flow will eventually return
from the southwest bringing a return of moisture to the region seven
to ten days out.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Sun Sep 25 2016

MVFR vsbys expected with fog overnight, otherwise VFR conditions
after 13z. Calm winds will become light south to southwest after
13z.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$



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