Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 181605
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1005 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 958 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

To expire dense fog advisory and update aviation section.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 310 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

Areas of dense fog will be the main concern early this morning.
The Dense Fog Advisory will continue for much of the forecast area
through 15z, when increasing southeast winds and sunshine will
dissipate the fog rather quickly. The air mass is quite dry above
the boundary layer, so a good deal of sunshine is expected by
noon. The colder than expected start to the day and the morning
fog suggests high temps will be a bit cooler. Forecast highs are
being lowered to the lower and mid 50s.

As low level winds veer and increase from the south tonight,
warm moist advection will generate widespread low clouds and some
showers. The models keep qpf on the light side, and the timing is
primarily after midnight. The nam indicates a narrow area of
weak elevated instability late tonight. A few rumbles of thunder
are possible overnight. Temps will slowly rise to around 60 by
daybreak.

For Monday through Tuesday, the primary weather feature of
interest will be a strong (594 dm) 500 mb high near the Carolina
coast. This high appears increasingly likely to keep parts of our
region dry and warm. The forecast for the Pennyrile region of
western KY is virtually rain-free Monday afternoon through
Tuesday. Some scattered showers are possible elsewhere, along
with intervals of sunshine. High temps will be in the 70s both
days. The forecast high of 76 at kpah Tuesday is close to the
February monthly record of 78.

The strength of the southerly wind flow could generate surface
wind gusts near advisory criteria both Monday and Tuesday
afternoons. Winds at 2k feet agl are forecast to be 35-40 kt
Monday and 40-45 kt on Tuesday. Any breaks in the clouds would
allow enough warming to mix these winds to the surface.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 310 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

All the forecast and pattern recognition signals remain in place for
heavy rainfall through the period. A high amplitude pattern has been
consistently forecast, with a strong ridge off the southeast U.S.
coast, and a deep trof over the west U.S. An unsettled
unidirectional flow will be in place from the TX and the Arklatex,
northeast across the Ohio and Tennessee River Valley regions.
Confidence remains high for Tuesday night through early Wednesday.
WPC now has the west 1/2 of the area in a Day 3 slight risk of
excessive rainfall, with some of southeast MO, especially the Ozark
Foothill region in a moderate risk. This area could see 2-3+ inches
of rainfall late Tuesday through early Wednesday, with amounts
lowering east into west KY. Some isolated thunder activity expected.
Used an even blend of the EC/GFS and CMC as they were in decent
agreement.

Daily chances of showers, isolated storms will continue. It appears
there will be another shot at heavy rainfall sometime in the Friday
through Saturday time frame. Confidence is a bit lower with respect
to amounts and timing. But there is decent model agreement with a
heavy rainfall signal once again, supported by the long range
ensemble solutions off the GEFS/GEPS/ECENS. We incorporated more of
the EC (and ECENS) than the GFS recent solutions for Thursday
through Saturday. CMC seems a bit more supportive of the EC as well.

We will see a boundary move through late Tuesday night and early
Wednesday. This will cool our temperatures back down. We should
bounce back with return flow by late in the week. We generally used
a blend of previous numbers, MOS and Raw Model output for temps.
If there is enough residual moisture back into southeast Missouri
and southwest Illinois Wednesday night, we may see some very light
freezing rain or drizzle as temperatures are forecast to be near
freezing. Confidence in this is rather low at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 958 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

Expect VFR conditrions today into the evening hours. Some ifr
conditions are likely overnight, along with scattered showers.
Winds will increase from the south tonight. Low level wind shear
is expected overnight due to winds from 40 to 50 kt at 2k feet.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GM
SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...GM


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