Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
406 FXUS63 KPAH 032001 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 301 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm temperatures continue this weekend and through next week. - Unsettled weather pattern through next week with scattered showers and storms Saturday through Monday, and more widespread storms Monday night through Thursday. - Potential exists for severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 240 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Upper level troughing will remain to our North and West with several disturbances advancing through the region helping to bring scattered showers and storms this weekend and into next week. This afternoon a weak disturbance is moving across the area helping to generate some scattered shower activity. Wind fields aloft are weak, so not expecting much any organization this afternoon and into tonight. The loss of forcing, and nocturnal stabilization should lead to mostly dry conditions tonight. A northern stream disturbance moves across the northern plains Saturday into Sunday. A few weak impulses are progged to move across the region leading to scattered showers and storms within a moist and unstable airmass. Overall, the lack of shear should keep severe potential low, although an isolated strong to severe storm is possible across SEMO Saturday afternoon/evening. Our attention then turns toward a few days of more active weather Sunday into the middle of next week. A more robust shortwave lifts from the southern plains with a weak boundary draped across the Quad State Sunday night into Monday. Better synoptic scale forcing combined with an unstable boundary layer should lead to more widespread showers and storms during this period. Unlike today and Saturday, mid level flow will be slightly stronger as a 30-35 knot mid level jet noses into the area. Deep layer shear approaches 30 knots which may lead to some organized convection, although the current thinking is that these potential storms will be more isolated in nature. The upper levels amplify Monday night into Tuesday as a sharp upper trough digs into the northern plains. Shortwave ridging developing over the region may keep things more isolated Monday into Tuesday morning. Tuesday will be breezy as low level winds increase associated with strong mid/upper level flow. Winds could approach 30 mph during the afternoon. Still need to watch for severe weather potential Tuesday into Thursday associated with a more amplified upper level pattern and a good overlap of shear and instability. Deep layer troughing will develop across the Rockies and move into the plains states. Still some questions on when the greatest time-frame for severe weather but there seems to be an increasing signal on the Wed-Thu time- frame. An area of low pressure develops across OK/TX and lifts northeast into Missouri. Increasing divergent flow aloft will overspread an increasingly moist and unstable airmass with dewpoints likely approaching or exceeding 70 degrees. Increasing southwest flow aloft will translate to increased deep layer shear for organized severe weather. All modes of severe weather appear possible at this time. Later forecasts will be able to fine tune timing of severe weather. Additionally, will also need to keep an eye on flooding concerns with several rounds of convection possible through next week. Drier weather arrives Friday post fropa and with increasing zonal flow aloft. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1211 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 MVFR cigs will improve this afternoon at most sites. Isolated to scattered SHRA expected this afternoon with CIG and Visb restrictions possible near any of this activity. TSRA appear possible but confidence is too low to mention in the TAFs. Winds relax overnight with a very moist boundary layer leading to fog development. IFR is forecast for all sites by morning. Fog will scatter out shortly after sunrise with VFR expected the rest of Saturday. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AD AVIATION...AD