Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 020250
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
950 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 950 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

The latest convection-resolving models indicate that a split will
occur with the convection currently near KSTL moving off to the
east northeast, and the convection over southwest Missouri
propagating slowly southward through the overnight hours. This
seems plausible with the 0-3km shear vectors generally from the
west southwest. The latest satellite and regional radar imagery
are already beginning to show signs of this evolution.

Figure that scattered to numerous showers and storms will
eventually work into our northwest counties, and especially the
I-64 corridor of southern Illinois somewhere close to 05Z, so have
updated primarily just to slow down the progression into/across our
region and show a bit more hourly detail through the overnight
hours. Still cannot rule out a strong storm or two, but heavy
rainfall and lightning will be the primary concerns through the
night. The storms should generally be progressive enough once they
get here, to keep any flooding potential in check.

Kept the likely PoPs by daybreak through much of west Kentucky,
but won`t be surprised if the coverage is more scattered down
there by then.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 300 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Will continue the Lake Wind Advisory thru 6 p.m. as criteria is
still being met. Rain and storm chances increase from the NW
tonight as a front settles south toward the area. Locally heavy
rain possible NNW part of the area. Modest wind fields, and more
favorable lapse rates means a strong, isolated severe storm cannot
be ruled out, again over the NW 1/2 of the area. The front will
move south through the area Tuesday. PoPs for convection will
accompany the front, generally likely in the morning, tapering off
in the afternoon. After somewhat of a lull, chances of elevated
convection will push in from the west by 12z Wednesday with
chances pushing east Wednesday/Wednesday night. Temps were a blend
of MOS and Raw Model output.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Models keep some light QPF across mainly our far eastern counties on
Thursday with some lingering moisture and instability, so kept some
slight to low chance pops going for these areas.  Loss of heating
will result in dry conditions Thursday night.  An approaching cold
front Friday will lead to increasing shower and thunderstorm chances
Friday and Friday night, with the highest chances through the day
Saturday with the frontal passage.  GFS and ECMWF are in good
agreement on timing, with precip chances quickly dwindling late
Saturday, while the GEM lingers precip into Saturday night.  Prefer
the GFS/ECMWF solutions, and after high chance pops on Saturday,
went with dry conditions for Saturday night.  Behind the front,
drier and cooler air will filter in the region, with below seasonal
temperatures expected Sunday into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 645 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Main aviation concern is the developing complex of thunderstorms
over central and sw Missouri early this evening. These storms are
associated with an upper level disturbance that will move east
overnight. The storms should hold together overnight as they feed on
a moist southwest low level jet from 30 to 40 knots at 850 mb. The
time frame for their passage at the taf sites is mainly 09z to 14z.
Some storms could develop over the kevv/kowb area even earlier than
that. Will maintain a close watch across that area.
Otherwise...mainly vfr conditions are expected with southwest winds
in the 5 to 10 knot range.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS





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