Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 221753

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1153 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

Issued at 1153 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

Made further adjustments to emphasize southeast Missouri for the
best chances of showers this afternoon. Continued downward trend
in PoPs through the remainder of the event. There is some filtered
sunshine over much of the area, so we may need to increase highs
a bit more.

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.

UPDATE Issued at 935 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

Well, we could not have put out a more wrong forecast yesterday!
Continued to adjust the forecast in an early update. Remove PoPs
from some northern areas through the morning, and lowered them
elsewhere. The latest guidance still shows some areas of showers
over the region this afternoon, but there is not much confidence
in the timing or placement. Made adjustments to the winds through
this evening, as the north winds will strengthen and become gusty
earlier this afternoon, but the gusts should not be as strong as
previously expected. Count on adjustments through the day as
things become more clear.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 246 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

It is becoming a bit more apparent now that the upper level low
that will push east from the southern Plains today will stay a
bit farther south than was expected yesterday at this time. Hence,
will be lowering rain chances over the northern half of the
forecast area. Also, a farther south track means less chances for
thunder in our region, but will leave just a slight chc mention
mainly over wrn KY closest to the sfc low. Will also be adjusting
rainfall amounts down accordingly...esp north.

Gusty northwest winds will kick in behind the surface low tonight
and precip chances will diminish from west to east. Will likely
see some wind gusts over 30 MPH as the sfc low deepens and moves
toward the Carolinas. High pressure (not of arctic or Canadian
origin) will then build east into the region for the remainder of
the short term, with dry conditions and temps remaining at or
above normal. May even see mid/upper 50s many locations by Tuesday

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 246 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

The long-term period continues to look dry and colder. The 500 mb
pattern will be very different from the past several days. A
positively-tilted 500 mb trough axis will extend from the Great
Lakes region west-southwest to the central Plains. A succession of
weak cold fronts will swing southeast across the Lower Ohio Valley.
The air mass will be too dry for organized precip events, although
some flurries or sprinkles are quite possible. High temps will be
around 40 Thursday through Saturday. Overnight lows will fall into
the mid/upper 20s for Friday and Saturday mornings.

As far as the daily specifics, the strongest cold front will move
east across our region on Wednesday. There is still no change in
model depictions of dry conditions with this front. The pre-frontal
wind flow will veer west-southwest in the morning, limiting the
moisture and convergence near the front. Wednesday will be the last
relatively mild day of the current pattern, with highs in the 50s.

As mentioned above, the mean trough axis will be located from the
Great Lakes to the central Plains Thursday through Saturday. A
series of small-scale shortwaves will rotate across the Great Lakes
region within the large-scale trough. The models keep most of the
precipitation and cloudiness with these shortwaves northeast of the
Lower Ohio Valley. The cloudiest areas of our region will likely be
southwest Indiana, northwest KY, and southeast IL, where highs
should be in the upper 30s each day. Areas of southeast MO which
receive the most sun will reach the lower 40s each day. The air mass
will be well-mixed, promoting some gustiness each afternoon.


Issued at 1153 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

Very low confidence situation for this forecast cycle. Have
removed all mention of precipitation, but it may be close at KCGI
in the next few hours. The main headache is the ceiling forecast.
The latest guidance has MVFR ceilings coming in by this evening,
and then lowering through the night to IFR conditions by morning.
Not sure about even the MVFR levels, so went on the optimistic
side with MVFR ceilings for much of the night and through the
morning. Could easily see the forecast go either way from there in
the second half of the period.

What is certain is that north winds will increase through the
afternoon and become gusty tonight and Monday morning. I think
guidance may be a bit too strong, so tried to keep gusts at or
below 25kts.




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