Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 241658
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1158 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 238 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

High pressure building in the wake of overnight fropa, will yield
lower temperatures and humidity today into Friday, with dry
weather forecast. Will side with a blend of raw model output and MOS
given the transition.

The NAM becomes the outlier Friday night through Saturday night with
respect to return flow and convective chances. The NAM develops
convection and drops it into SEMO and SRN IL by 12z Sat, while the
GFS and ECMWF keep it dry through midday Saturday until convective
chances appear in the afternoon across the northern sections of
our CWFA. The NAM has been fairly bad about overdoing moisture and
potential convection recently. Having said that, discounting it
can sometimes be the wrong way to go too. We are blended between
the NAM vs. GFS/ECMWF solutions for now. For several days, the
models have hinted at a convective complex moving SE and possibly
affecting at least some of our CWFA Saturday night, especially
northern sections. This continues to be reflected in our PoPs. But
given the drier look to the GFS and ECMWF solutions, no more than
chance PoPs for now north, tapering to slights south, until there
is more clarity. Overall confidence in timing and placement of
convective chances is lower than average Friday night through
Saturday night. Assuming convection doesn`t alter things, Saturday
should be rather hot. Highs in the low to mid 90s, with heat
indices around 100, possibly slightly higher west of a KMVN to
KPAH line.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 238 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

The main feature that will bring us a chance for convection in the
long term is a frontal boundary that will be advancing from the
northwest on Sunday. Models are indicating convection developing
along the front Sat/Sat night to our north, that may creep into
portions of the area Sunday morning. Otherwise, the cold front will
be the focus for additional scattered development during the day on
Sunday as it moves through. Looking back on the past several runs of
the GFS/ECMWF, there is not much support for widespread convection
at this point, so will keep POPS in the low chance category for now.
Best chances will be in the east of the Mississippi River, closer to
the EVV tri state region. A lot will depend on how the convection
from Saturday night plays out. But the GFS precip ensembles and the
precip mean are not too exciting at this point. However, wind fields
will be increasing throughout the day and with highs in the upper
80s to lower 90s (depending on cloud cover) and dewpoints in the
lower 70s, this could support a few strong to severe thunderstorms.

The GFS and ECMWF agree that convection will exit the area Sunday
evening, so left some lingering POPS in parts of west KY but then
dry after midnight. Another extended period of dry weather and well
below normal temperatures/ humidity is forecast through next week.
High pressure will be sliding south from central Canada early in the
week and become centered over our region by Wednesday. Much cooler
and drier air will filter into the area, with H85 temps dropping in
the lower teens to even single digits in a few places. Looking at
the guidance numbers for the past several days, there has been a
definite shift from climo to temps much below normal and models
seemed to have settled on lower to mid 80s for highs for next week.
However, would not be surprised to see upper 70s in some places.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1157 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR conditions to predominate for majority of WFO PAH TAF sites
through forecast period. Main adjustments made to account for mean
wind directional changes through forecast period and for the
development of diurnal cumulus cloud bases and ceilings.

For KCGI, specifically, two items. To accommodate for fog
climatology near observation site, adjusted early morning
visibility to MVFR and isolated IFR development (MIFG). The second
issue was to pass along that the haze reports associated with the
KCGI observation this morning were due to construction work being
done near the ASOS sensor. This should be a temporary condition
and was not reflected in the forecast for this TAF site.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...Smith





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