Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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591
FXUS63 KPAH 210531
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1130 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

.UPDATE...
Updated aviation section for 06z taf issuance

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 230 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

Clouds overspread much of the region today as anticipated along
with even warmer temperatures, helping to rid the snow where it
persists. A wedge of drier air has kept sun out longer across our
far NW counties. With time it should cloud up area wide. As
anticipated. some weak returns showing up on radar, perhaps the
first signs of very light drizzle as low level waa/isentropic lift
get going. Will continue this chance tonight through Sunday given
the persistent low level moist transport and lift surface-850mb.
Having said that little if any QPF, and PoPs only very low or
slight chance. The clouds, and a SSW breeze overnight should keep
temps from falling too much. Went with weighted output again.

Sunday night, PoPs ramp up and progress from west to east across
the area. This in response to and ahead of a deep h5 low that by
06z Monday will be over the Central Plains. Showers anticipated
along with isolated thunder chances as well, given marginally
supportive elevated instability over the west 2/3 of the area.
This chance will continue into Monday morning, ending west of the
MS River. By 00z Tuesday, the upper low should be over the Upper
MS Valley region. Dry slot moves over the region Monday afternoon
and brings an end to the precip chances, with generally dry
weather Monday night. Rainfall amounts still projected from just
under 1/2" KY Pennyrile to 0.50-0.90" rest of the area, highest
amounts southeast Missouri. Standing water issues still look to be
a possibility given snow melt continues, and ground conditions
quite saturated some areas. Impacts not expected to be
significant. Overall, no real model preference. Used a blend.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 230 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

Fairly high confidence in the extended with a much warmer solution
than we have observed recently.

The models are in good agreement on a warming trend in the extended
and they have been very consistent with this scenario. Tuesday
should be the coolest day with each day after that warming up. By
the week`s end we should be around 10 degrees above normal. We
will have a reinforcing cold front come through Tuesday morning
which will result in near normal temperatures. After that high
pressure will move in and dominate the weather through the rest of
the week. As the high drifts to the east a southerly flow will
return to the area bringing much warmer and moist air to the
region. Finally Friday a warm front will lift through the area
placing us in the warm sector ahead of a cold front. The blend was
slowing the arrival of the rain Friday night pushing it back a
little later. There is very little instability with no surface
instability and weak instability aloft with K index values in the
mid 20s. So will not introduce thunder at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1130 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

During the evening, cigs actually improved to vfr at all sites for
at least a couple hours. The onset of ifr conditions has been
delayed in the forecast. Higher dew points are working their way
north across Tennessee, and the air is nearly saturated there. This
air mass will reach the taf sites eventually, so ifr conditions are
still expected to develop at most sites.

Strong southwest winds aloft continue to necessitate the mention of
low level wind shear at kowb/kevv overnight tonight and again Sunday
evening.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

Aviation...MY



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