Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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170
FXUS63 KPAH 261726
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1126 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1126 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

Aviation update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 239 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

With the surface high pressure ridge sliding across the Tennessee
valley early this morning, we see cold start of day temps in the
20s, which is not actually unusual for this time of year, just
unusual for us lately. The eastward shift of the High today means
return flow southerlies develop once again, and start a transition
to warm and moist air advection that will lead to a chance of
pcpn, including thunderstorms, returning to the forecast sooner
than later.

Abundant sunshine today will help high temperatures climb toward
seasonal norms in or close to the lower 50s. Surface dew points
remaining in the 20s will help bottom out afternoon relative
humidity in the 30s percentile, with some 20s possible in our
southeast. Winds won`t be as strong as yesterday, but may reach
into the teens at times, heightening the fire danger for the
afternoon hours.

Warming and moistening of the atmos column will continue through
the remainder of the short term forecast. Surface dew points surge
toward 40F tonight, and approach 50F by the end of the day Monday.
This destabilizing of the column thru warm/moist air advection and
isentropic upglide leads to elevated instability parameters
supportive of thunder inclusion working in from the south
beginning Monday night. We extend the thunder chance to all but
the I-64 corridor by Tuesday morning, basically where surface dew
points are in the 50s.

SPC outlooks an ENH risk for SEMO (and adjacent SWIL/Far SWKY
counties) and a SLGT risk of severe for the remainder of the area
during the Tuesday-Tuesday night time frame, as we see 0-1KM MU
CAPES reach into the 1000-1500 J/KG range. We broaden our thunder
and overall PoP chance during this time frame to capture the
trending of the increasingly warm/moist/unstable airmass, as dew
points surge toward and into the 60s, along/ahead of a cold front
that takes shape and makes its approach from the northwest.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 216 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

Other than the departing weather system on Wednesday, the main
thrust of the extended forecast period will be a drier and warmer
weather.

The cold frontal passage Wednesday morning will lead to moderate
rainfall, with mainly elevated convection at this time. There could
be some isolated severe potential leading into Wednesday morning,
but indications suggest that the instability will become more
elevated as the morning progresses.

Near normal temperatures will dominate for Thursday and Friday,
before a gradual warm up through the weekend. Relative humidity
values will drop into 25 to 35 percent range through the remainder
of the week following the frontal passage on Wednesday, allowing for
ample drying of vegetation.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1126 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

Mid and high clouds will continue to increase this afternoon. Rain
chances develop this evening, ending by Monday morning. Cigs will
eventually lower to MVFR, with some MVFR vsbys as well. The
airmass is very dry. So there may be a brief, initial mix this
evening before all rain. Should not be an impact. SSE winds up to
10 kts will be light tonight and Monday morning, from the SE.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$



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