Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 201751
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1251 PM CDT Wed Aug 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

As an upper low pressure system moves east across the Great Lakes,
some upper energy rounds the base of the trof and advects
shower/storm chances across mainly our far northern/northeast
counties thru early evening. This is playing out now on radar, and
should continue to be the trend to/shortly after 00Z. We`ll adjust
mainly chance cat pops accordingly to latest trends.

Otherwise, the primary synoptic evolution over the course of the
short term forecast will be the building high pressure dome over
the southern U.S. As H5 heights rise 40DM, the corresponding nudge
upwards in heat/humidity will result in daytime heat indices
running at or in excess of 100. Thus a Heat Avisory remains in
effect.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

It looks like the ridge will hold from the weekend, into early
next week. There is some hint at its breakdown by midweek, as the
models develop a cold front and usher it this direction by Wed.
That looks to be our best bet at a break in the heat. That, or CWA
periphery type pcpn chances that show up almost daily.
Unfortunately, the high center domes over the mid south/our CWa,
so any such chances are remote. The Heat Advisory continues into
the weekend, but may need extended into early next week. Will be
looking to monitor and revise that, as needed, in the coming 24-48
hours.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

Scattered cu bases in the pm heat will flirt with MVFR cigs, esp
nearer convection to the north (KEVV/KOWB), for a brief couple
hours this pm. Otherwise higher bases in the VFR range should stay
scattered or clear as the sun sets. Patchy fog is possible
overnight, and may restrict vsbys to MVFR at times. It is possible
fog prone KCGI (or possibly KPAH) could yield a dip into IFR range
by the pre dawn hours. Otherwise ridging high pressure should mean
generally benign terminal flight weather excepting the
aforementioned.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Saturday FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Saturday FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.

IN...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Saturday FOR INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Saturday FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$






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