Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 270708
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
208 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 129 AM CDT Fri May 27 2016

High confidence in rain with low confidence in timing and medium
confidence in placement.

Models continue to show different solution with the placement and
timing of the rain. However one common theme is that they do
continue to show the highest chances and heaviest rain along west
of the Ohio and Wabash River Valleys. This is more pronounced west
of the Mississippi River as come to fruition Thursday with Cape
Girardeau measuring over three and half inches. In contrast west
of there Poplar Bluff was more like a tenth of an inch and Paducah
was nearly three quarters of an inch. So the heavy rain threat
continues but not to the extent of Thursday. There was also some
hail Thursday which is not as likely today but possible. The
models are starting to show more dry periods than previously
unfortunately not so much for today. As we near the end of the
short term drier condition are expected to become more common.
The southwest flow aloft will persist through the short term with
the gulf wide open in the lower layers. So any perturbation in the
flow will set off thunderstorms. Although severe is not expected
strong storms with heavy rain will continue to be the main threat.
Southerly winds at the surface will be gusty again today with or
without storms. Temperatures will continue to slowly climb a
degree or two each day through the short term.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 129 AM CDT Fri May 27 2016

below average confidence in the long term due to model
differences.

High pressure at the surface and zonal flow aloft should keep most
of the region dry Monday and Monday night, however scattered mainly
diurnal convection will be possible, especially over the western
sections.

Precipitation probabilities begin to increase area wide on Tuesday
as a closed upper low digging southeast into the upper plains carves
out a huge trough causing the flow aloft to increase and back around
to the southwest over the area. Meanwhile the aforementioned surface
high pressure will have moved off to the east bringing the low level
flow around to the south causing increasing levels of moisture. The
trough is forecast to push a front across the region on Thursday so
precipitation chances should be greatest area wide on that day.

High temperatures in the long term period will generally top out in
the low to mid 80s with overnight lows bottoming out in the low to
mid 60s.


&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

A rather persistent area of showers will continue to stream north
northeast through KCGI and KPAH for at least the first few hours
of the forecast. There has been some sporadic lightning within
this area of showers/rain in Missouri, but the chance of a strike
at KCGI is too low to mention TS at this time. Not sure just how
long this activity will persist, but it could continue through the
night and into Friday morning.

Guidance is strongly suggesting that the late morning/early
afternoon period may have some MVFR ceilings and SHRA/TSRA
potential at KCGI and possibly KPAH.

For KOWB and KEVV, it should remain dry through this period.
Threw in some MVFR fog straddling sunrise, as they are nearly
saturated with light winds at this time.


&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KH
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DRS



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