Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 230730

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
130 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 120 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

South winds in the lower trop will provide a warm air advection
environ for the next 24 to 36 hours, prior to a now developing
weather system taking shape and sweeping thru the area with
showers and thunderstorms chances mainly Friday afternoon and
evening. We`ll see dew points remain in the 50s and possibly nudge
toward 60F ahead of the front Friday pm. That`ll make a warm and
humid air mass for late Feb. The primary limiting factor for
storms is columnar moisture/timing, but surface dew points may
provide an impetus for otherwise good lift/instability available
to gen up some surface based cells. If so, we can expect marginal
to slight (east) risk of svr storms Fri pm/evening with damaging
winds the primary svr threat/hazard.

Air temps Today and again Fri will top out in the lower 70s,
which will be approaching record warmth for this time of year:

Today Record High.... 75 (PAH)... 77 (EVV)... 76 (CGI).
Friday Record High... 73 (PAH)... 72 (EVV)... 73 (CGI).
Most of these records were set in 1982, 1985, and/or 2000.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 220 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

High pressure centered over the Central Plains at 12z Saturday will
slide off the North Carolina coast by 00z Monday.  Dry and cooler
conditions can be expected for the weekend.  Temperatures Saturday
and Saturday night will be a little below seasonal normals, with
conditions moderating to near normal for Sunday.

By Sunday night, models show low pressure over the Southern Plains
moving northeast, with GFS much faster than the ECMWF.  The Canadian
is out on its own, so focused on the ECMWF and GFS solutions.
Despite the GFS faster movement of the low, both models spread
precipitation across our region Sunday night continuing into early
Monday.  By late Monday, the models timing differences are more
prominent, with GFS drying us out by Monday afternoon.  The ECMWF
lingers precipitation across southern portions of the PAH forecast
area Monday afternoon into Monday night.  By Tuesday, model
differences decrease confidence, with the GFS faster with another
area of low pressure coming out of the Central Plains.  Even with
timing differences, it looks like we will have a period where more
significant rainfall will be likely. Went with low chances in mainly
our far southern counties Monday afternoon into Monday night, then
went with increasing shower chances along with some thunderstorms
Tuesday into early Wednesday.  Went with decreasing chances from
west to east Wednesday afternoon.

South winds will again lead to well above normal temperatures Monday
through Wednesday, with the warmest day being Tuesday.


Issued at 120 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

The main concern through the early morning hours is the
redevelopment of low clouds. A band of mvfr cigs recently formed
across southwest IL and the Mississippi valley before midnight.
These low clouds will tend to increase as a moist southerly wind
flow continues early this morning. The south winds are forecast to
average 10 to 20 knots in the lowest few thousand feet, which
will mitigate fog potential. However, mvfr cigs and vsbys appear
likely by sunrise at all sites. With diurnal heating, cloud bases
will again rise above vfr thresholds by noon. Conditions will
remain vfr thru the evening.




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