Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 162255
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
555 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold front will pass tonight and bring a brief shot of
  chilly air mainly Sunday night through Monday night.
  Subfreezing low temperatures are likely Monday morning and
  again Tuesday morning.

- Temperatures will quickly moderate Tuesday as southwest winds
  become very gusty. Temperatures will climb to near or slightly
  above normal level, while the very strong southwest winds may
  lead to a Wind Advisory. The combination of dry air and strong
  winds could push the fire danger to significant levels.

- Forecast confidence in precipitation Wednesday night through
  Saturday is low. There is some chance that we could stay dry
  for the entire period.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 550 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 314 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

An upper-level trough over Ontario today will push southward and
that will push a cold front through the Quad State overnight
tonight. A significant impulse will pivot through the base of
the trough and through the Quad State Sunday night into Monday.
Cool surface high pressure will settle over Arkansas by Monday
evening, and that will allow southwest winds to return to the
entire region by early Tuesday. A very strong pressure gradient
on Tuesday may allow winds to push Wind Advisory criteria.

After a mild night tonight, temperatures on Sunday will be near
normal levels, and then by Monday temperatures will likely not
get out of the 40s which would be some 10-15 degrees below
normal. As for lows Sunday night and Monday night, winds may
help hold temperatures up some, especially Monday night. Most of
the region will see a light freeze Sunday night and then a hard
freeze will be more of a concern Monday night. The strong
southwest winds Tuesday will lead to a quick warm up to normal
levels if not a few degrees above.

Gusty northwest winds and low relative humidity will lead to an
elevated fire danger Sunday and Monday. Those strong winds on
Tuesday with continued low humidity and ever drier fuels could
take the fire danger level to significant if not extreme levels.
A weak frontal passage Tuesday night will not result in much of
a cool down, but could produce very dry conditions again
Wednesday. Fortunately, norDISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...DRS
thwest winds should stay in check.

For Wednesday night and beyond the forecast become quite murky.
There will be strong northwest flow aloft from southwest Canada
to the mid-Atlantic, while a southern stream short wave trough
attempts to push eastward from the Four Corners region.
Ensembles indicate a wide range of solutions as this system
moves east of the Rockies. The 12Z GFS is the wettest of the
operational runs and brings rain north into the Quad State
Thursday night through Friday night. Meanwhile the 12Z ECMWF is
completely dry for the entire period, and the CMC is nearly dry
as well.

The bottom line is that the NBM has chance PoPs from late
Wednesday night through Saturday. At least they are just at
chance levels, but even that seems a bit much given the very
real potential for the entire Quad State to stay dry through
next Saturday.

As for temperatures, the NBM has highs staying a few degrees
above normal Thursday through next Saturday. With surface high
pressure in control under northwest flow aloft, it wouldn`t be
shocking to see temperatures trend a bit lower as that period
approaches. Of course, maybe the NBM knows that it will be dry.
We will see.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 550 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

A dry cold front`s approach/passage will bring some lower VFR
bases SCT-BKN070 tonight. These bases scatter/clear within 3-4
hours afterward, while winds will shift to the northwest after
fropa, then pick up/with some gusts during the day tmrw.
Time/height cross sections suggest late day, high based diurnal
cu is possible, so its possibility was added for the back end of
the planning phase hours.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$


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