Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 240458
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1158 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1157 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 06Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Showers will depart our eastern counties this afternoon. Expect a
dry night. Good low level / sfc flow will keep temps up overnight
upon southerlies. Convective chances should be confined to SEMO
Friday, especially in the afternoon, with increasing chances of
convection Friday night through Saturday as an upper low
approaches from the west. Convective chances will continue
Saturday with best chance PoPs slowly progressing from west to
east across the area. The system is forecast to lift NE across
the mid MS Valley region by 12z Sunday. Therefore we diminish PoPs
Saturday night. Used a blend of MOS and existing numbers for
temps. Used a blend of all models for sensible wx elements as
there is good overall agreement.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

A brief lull in the wet weather is expected by Sunday afternoon into
Sunday evening as a weak upper level ridge moves over the region.
Another area of low pressure will move east from the Central Plains
into the middle Mississippi Valley by 12z Monday.  Showers and
possibly a few thunderstorms will spread into areas along and east
of the Mississippi River late Sunday night, with showers and
scattered thunderstorms spreading across the entire PAH forecast
area through the day Monday and continuing into Monday evening.
Models are in fair agreement taking the low into the southern Great
Lakes region by 12z Tuesday, and showers will taper off from west to
east late Monday night into Tuesday morning.

Weak upper level ridging will give us a period of dry weather
Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday.  Models have been going back forth
on the timing of yet another low pressure system coming out of the
Plains for mid week.  We have backed off on the precipitation
timing, and hold off on bringing in chances of showers until
Wednesday night.  Went with some small chances of showers in our far
west counties Wednesday evening, spreading across our western half
of counties by Thursday morning.  Showers are forecast to continue
across most of our area into Thursday.

Temperatures will remain unseasonably mild through the period.  High
temperatures will be in the middle 60s to middle 70s, with lows in
the upper 40s to middle 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1157 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Winds are expected to pick up and possibly become gusty before
mixing begins Friday morning. Until they gust, LLWS will be a
concern. The 00Z models develop an area of MVFR or lower ceilings
over all sites around daybreak and through much of the day, but
statistical guidance does not support it. Downplayed MVFR ceilings
from the previous forecast by limiting them to a 4 hour TEMPO
group. South winds will gusts well above 20kts through the day,
when and where there are not low ceilings. Winds will subside to
under 10kts and back a bit with loss of mixing Friday evening. Any
convection/precipitation with our next storm system should remain
west of KCGI through 06Z Saturday.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
AVIATION...DRS



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