Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 082002

302 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 300 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015

The main event in the short term will be Thu night/Fri. Clouds
will be on the increase across the region tonight. A significant,
fast- moving, mid level shrtwv will sweep through the ern half of
the CONUS on Fri and Sat, bringing a sfc cold front through the
PAH forecast area early Fri.

It appears that atmospheric moisture available for lift will be
limited in the low levels, reducing the likelihood of deep moist
convection, and therefore coverage and intensity of showers. Some
lightning strikes are still possible, primarily in the morning.
The best PoPs (chance) will be in the srn half of our region,
where the highest QPF will be (up to a quarter inch). However, we
will hold onto likely PoPs in the afternoon for a small part of
the srn Pennyrile Region of KY, diminishing rapidly by early
evening. Meanwhile, parts of swrn IL may not receive any rainfall
with this event.

Rapid clearing will occur from the west Fri night, ushering in a
cooler drier air mass for the weekend. Lows will be in the upper
half of the 40s, with highs around 70 on Sat.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015

Average confidence with the extended forecast period, starting on

The main weather makers are on Monday, then again next Friday (just
beyond this forecast package). The medium range ECMWF, Canadian, and
GFS are all posting some light QPF with the frontal passage on
Monday, mainly from mid-level moisture. Left a token mention of
light precipitation over part of the WFO PAH forecast are in
conjunction with the blended model guidance initialization, but it
may not amount to more than a few sprinkles.

The flow through the period will shift from a sharp northwest flow
at the beginning of the week to zonal flow at the end.  If you
consider the closed low over the Southwest U.S./Northern Mexico,
this feature is projected to retrograde west off the California
coast, then become reabsorbed in the zonal flow and move back across
the nation, bringing the next chance for rain late next week.

Given the mixed flow in the planetary boundary layer through the
period, a diurnal range of temperatures between 20-23 degrees will
be common, but within normal range for this time of year. The only
exception will be immediately after the frontal passage on Monday.


Issued at 300 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015

The region will be under a warm advection regime through the
overnight hours, with light sfc winds out of the sw. Any clouds are
expected to be in the VFR range. Limited moisture in the lower
levels will reduce the chances of pcpn-induced vsby restrictions Fri
morning as a mid level shrtwv and sfc cold front sweep through the
region. An isold lightning strike is possible, but not enough to
include in the TAFs.




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