Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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600
FXUS63 KPAH 100927
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
327 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 236 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

Dealing with localized snow bands/streamers again this morning.
Tho not as widespread as yesterday, the band over the Paducah
metro area has put down another coating of snow, so will need to
monitor once again for last minute advisories. Will start off with
localized special weather statements for now, and monitor how
things progress as we head toward the morning commute. Will be
interesting to see if salt put down yesterday will still be
effective given temps in the low 20s, or if traffic has already
removed most of it.

Weakening clipper system will drop sse through the Plains today
and tonight. Looks to be a high pop/low QPF event...mainly along
the MS River from swrn IL/se MO southeastward into the wrn tip of
KY. Thinking is another light coating (dusting to less than an
inch) of snow could occur in some areas. Could be minor issues if
anyone gets a quick burst right as the late day/evening commute
approaches, but too early to make that call at this time.

Weak high pressure will settle into the Midwest/Ohio Valley
regions on Thursday, bringing dry and chilly conditions. we will
likely see a bit of a moderation in temps by Friday, before the
next shot of cold Canadian air arrives Friday night.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 236 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

The medium range models were in reasonable agreement in their
depictions of the overall pattern across the CONUS. Early in the
period, another arctic air mass will surge into the PAH forecast
area on deep northwesterly flow, dropping the dewpoint numbers into
the single digits for most of the weekend. Temperatures should not
get much above freezing anywhere in our region over the weekend.
Clouds will be on the increase from the west on Sunday as a mid
level shortwave begins to dig into the central Plains. There may be
enough lift/moisture aloft, and enough moisture advection in the low
levels, to produce enough snowfall overcome the very dry cold air at
the sfc by late in the day Sunday, especially in southwestern
Illinois and southeastern Missouri.

The models have come together a bit better on timing of this system,
though differences remain in placement of surface lows. The GEM/EC
models seemed to favor low pressure over the Deep South, which would
tend to mean an easterly component to the low level winds over us,
and maintenance of colder air. The EC model was really aggressive
with QPF amounts in excess of an inch. At this time, it seemed
prudent to acknowledge that there should be enough cold air at the
surface and aloft for some snowfall to occur Sunday night across the
entire region, but then a transition should occur to a wintry mix
and finally rain in at least southwestern parts of the region during
the day Monday due to warming temperatures. Finer details are a bit
hard to come by this far out. For this package, an educated guess is
that the I-64 corridor may get a couple of inches of snow, with
lesser amounts farther south. Any lingering pcpn should end Monday
night.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1137 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

The 06z Wednesday WFO PAH TAF issuance provides a transition to
VFR conditions for KCGI and KPAH, with a slower transition for
KEVV and KOWB. The main change is moving from one system to
another and the intermittent transition in ceiling heights.


&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...Smith



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