Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 191928

128 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 100 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

The latest 12z modeling continues all model previous trends with a
southward shift in the pressure system`s track tonight. That
means, the same as it has meant each day... i.e. less and less of
a chance of measurable pcpn for the PAH FA. So much so in fact,
we`ll probably eliminate measurable Pops from the forecast. This
appears to be collaborating well with southern/eastern neighbors
likewise downgrading pops to slgt chance mentions.

Satellite/surface obs do show low clouds/fog advecting
northeastward and we`ll make some mention of that into SEMO, again
collaboratively matching LSX/SGF, where it occurred last night as
well. Don`t think we`ll see vsbys to warrant headline, but it`s
something to monitor.

The remainder of the weekend then looks seasonally normal with
highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s or 30s. We`ll hold off on the
Sun night pcpn chance for now, given both the GFS and the
typically wet NAM suggest no qpf into the area thru 12z Monday.
Final call to be collaborated.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 100 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

We continue to watch the evolution of a shortwave trough that will
originate from northeast Montana late in the weekend. A closed upper
level low will eventually develop as the system moves southeast.
There continues to be timing issues as models try and resolve the
progression of this system as it matures. Monday is looking drier
and drier but cannot rule out a small chance for rain. However, the
better chances look to arrive on Monday night. But again, models are
having a tough time resolving any energy rotating around what will
become, a very large upper low.

Yesterdays runs showed Monday night into Tuesday being the main time
frame for precip. The 00Z/12Z GFS still shows this to be the case
along with the 12Z GFS ensembles. Both the 12Z GFS/ECMWF show the
sfc cold front moving through Monday night/Tuesday morning as well.
But the 00Z/12Z ECMWF shunts most of the moisture/precip north of us
and develops another low to the south of us, which brings us better
chances for rain late Tuesday/Tuesday night as the low moves
northeast in the Appalachains. The GFS leaves us fairly dry Tuesday
night however, after the frontal passage, except for maybe some
lingering light rain/flurries.

The forecast for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, really depend on
what this upper low decides to do. Every model run has shown a
somewhat different solution. However, the overall consensus
indicates that after the main sfc front passes through, the upper
level trough moves into the region bringing colder weather. So, it
will be a cloudy, cool day with possible periodic light snow
showers. Depending on the strength and timing of any possible waves
rotating around this monster low, we could see varying intensity to
these snow showers, meaning some places could end up getting some

The upper low should move far enough east by Christmas Eve night,
that we should see improvements though and a tapering off of any
activity. For Christmas Day, we should see sunshine and warmer
temperatures as the upper flow becomes more zonal as an upper level
ridge to our west dampens as it tries to build eastward. The weather
for Christmas Day night and the day after Christmas once looked
kinda messy with another frontal passage. But the latest GFS shows
the passage pretty dry. We`ll see...


Issued at 100 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Mass of lower MVFR to IFR cigs/vsbys perched to our south/west
will stream in tonight, so anticipate deteriorating conditions in
that regard, as the night wears on. Pcpn, however, should largely
hold off as it is shunted south and east of the terminals, with
the increasingly more southern system track. Conditions should
begin to improve later in the planning period thru the day tmrw,
as the weather system tracks away and high pressure at the surface
gradually increases its strength, and push of drier air thru the
atmospheric column.



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