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000
FXUS63 KPAH 190739
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
239 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 211 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

Models pick up the short wave moving through central IL and MO at
this time and continue to move it southeast across the forecast
area through the morning hours. Clouds and perhaps an isolated
shower are not out of the question through 17-18z. Any patchy fog
that forms through the predawn hours will burn off quickly after
sunrise. Beginning this afternoon, the upper level ridge builds
in and the heat is on through the end of the week. The heat
advisory continues through the weekend due to the duration of
afternoon heat indices between 100 and 105.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 211 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

Medium confidence in the extended with decreasing confidence in rain
chances next week.

Oppressive heat and humidity continue to be the main concern for this
period. High pressure builds over the region keeping temperatures
aloft high enough to ward off most precipitation chances at least
through Saturday. However looking at the forecast sounding any
storms would be isolated at best. The high does begin to break down
this weekend and models are trying to push a cold front into the
area Sunday into Monday. The forecast sounding are not really
conducive to rain at least until Sunday when the column becomes more
saturated. However with abundant low level moisture and PW`s >1.5"
we could see isolated anytime and anywhere but again best chances
are north and east as the high retreats south and west. The models
then push the front south of us early next week returning dry
conditions to the region with dew points dropping back into the
middle 60. Expect heat index values in the triple digits at least
until Sunday. Even if the front washes out or stalls over the area
it will produce enough cloud cover to lower temperatures even if we
do not get the northerly flow currently projected for next week.
However if the front does stall over the area that will increase
rain chances but mainly be diurnally driven in the heat of the
afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1158 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period except for MVFR
fog possible between 09z-13z. FEW050 cu possible between 18z-01z.
Winds will be light variable to calm overnight, becoming west to
southwest around 5kts after 13z, then becoming calm after 00z.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT Sunday for ILZ075>078-
     080>094.

MO...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT Sunday for MOZ076-086-
     087-100-107>112-114.

IN...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT Sunday for INZ081-082-
     085>088.

KY...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT Sunday for KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ML
LONG TERM...KH
AVIATION...RST