Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 290444
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1144 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1143 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 06Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 204 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

High forecast confidence within this short5 term period.

High pressure will build back into the region early in the week
resulting in warm, sunny afternoons and clear, cool nights Monday
through Wednesday. Only forecast issue we can see at this point is
the degree of fog formation late at night. Will go with at least
patchy fog tonight/early Monday to help cover for this concern.
Will also use a MOS blend for max/min temp forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 202 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

There is high confidence on a front coming through mid to late week.
However the exact timing and precip amounts have lower
confidence...especially considering the last few fropa`s that the
models indicated significant rain produced little to none as the
event neared.

The models continue to speed the system up with the 12z Sunday GFS
leading the pack as usual. I did speed up the arrival time by about
6 hours as well as the departure Friday morning. I did not go as
fast as the GFS but leaned that direction minus about 6 hours. Will
wait for the 12z Sunday ECMWF to make final call closer to press
time. I did enhance winds with this system a few knots above what
the superblend yielded. As previous forecaster did not introduce
diurnal chance Wednesday afternoon. However will monitor model
trends in case the slight capping in forecast soundings erodes.

Otherwise models continue to show a significant cool down in the
systems wake. This should take to or below normals for this time of
year.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1143 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

Little change to the existing forecast with the 06Z TAF issuance.
Early morning fog is the only concern, and that should only be an
issue at KCGI and KPAH. However, will have to monitor KEVV
closely, as they had showers all around, but not at, the terminal
early this evening.

A light north wind will mix down by late morning at all sites and
persist through the afternoon. With good radiational cooling
expected again Monday night, would not be surprised to see KCGI
with a reduction to visibility by 06Z Tuesday.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...KH
AVIATION...DRS






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