Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 211750
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1250 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

Based on observed heat indices around 110 across southeast MO and
southern IL, an Excessive Heat Warning was issued for the affected
areas through Saturday. The advisory remains in place through
Sunday for the entire forecast area. Otherwise, no significant
changes were made to the forecast. An outflow boundary pushed
southward across southern IN this morning, marked by a line of
towering cumulus clouds. This boundary will continue to be watched
for isolated convection as it sags south across the Pennyrile
region of west KY this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

Heat Advisory will continue through Sunday. Peak values today and
Saturday will be particularly unpleasant, from 105-110F nearly
everywhere. Perhaps slightly lower some areas Sunday with a chance
of convection and clouds in the forecast, though still high
enough to warrant the Sunday inclusion. We generally used a blend
of existing forecast highs with the latest MAV/MET MOS. ECMOS may
be a tad too high.

In the big picture, the mid level ridge will very slowly break
down today through Sunday. A boundary will approach the area early
Sunday, and essentially stall through Sunday night somewhere
across the area.

Strong NVA region that put a lid on all convection Thursday, will
cycle south today. A corridor of weak to no capping sets up during
peak heating north and east sections of the CWFA, with limited
moisture. Would not rule out isolated (10 percent chance)
convection in this area given the return, albeit weak positive
vort advection.

Should be void of convection Friday night through Saturday as
drier air works across the area. As the boundary enters into the
area Saturday night and persists through the rest of the weekend,
will go with slight to low/mid chance PoPs pushing from north to
south across the CWFA. Coverage and QPF still in question given
the range of solutions seen in the short range models.


.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

The medium range models were in reasonable agreement overall with
the mid level flow pattern over the CONUS, as a broad ridge begins
to expand eastward in the wake of a departing eastern trof. However,
while the ECMWF shows higher surface pressures moving into our
region behind a cold front initially, as do the other models, this
model has picked up a secondary mid level trof in the central Plains
that may begin to move into the PAH forecast area by Tue. Instead of
a dry forecast by Tue afternoon, blending the ECMWF in resulted in
at least slight chance PoPs for the southern half of the region,
expanding across most of the region Wed morning.

Beyond Wed, the capping effects of the ridge should keep the
coverage of showers and tstms very low for most of our region,
except possibly the northeastern quadrant, which may get clipped by
convective activity generated from the more active westerlies to the
north.

Temps are forecast to be about average for this time of year, with
dewpoints beginning their drop into the 60s starting Mon night.
Exactly how far they will drop is a bit uncertain with the local
differences in the models. At this time, we will forecast afternoon
heat indices well below 100 Tue and Wed. The heat index may flirt
with 100 in some locations by Thu.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

A few cumulus clouds will continue through the afternoon,
otherwise clear skies are expected through Saturday morning.
A little fog is possible around sunrise, mainly at kcgi. Winds
will be southwest less than 10 knots, except variable this
afternoon near an outflow boundary in the kowb/kevv areas.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Saturday for ILZ075>078-
     080>094.

     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ076-086-
     087-100-107>112-114.

     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.

IN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Saturday for KYZ001>005.

     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MY
SHORT TERM...CN
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...MY



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