Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 160945
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
345 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 330 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

The main forecast challenge in the short term lies with a possible
light winter weather event Wednesday night into early Thursday.

Other than some left over sprinkles or patchy drizzle, the main
weather story today will be the return to colder, blustery
conditions. Temperatures will likely hold steady or fall slowly
throughout the day under cloudy skies. West winds will gust over
20 mph at times, making it feel even more uncomfortable.

Wednesday will be dry and chilly as Canadian high pressure builds
southeast into the region. Highs will stay in the 30s and lower
40s for the most part. Moisture will begin to over run the dome of
cold air Wednesday night as a weak mid level short wave lifts
northeast out of the southern Plains. It now appears the best lift
and highest QPF will occur over south and west portions of the
forecast region since the s/w should weaken as it comes into the
region. Even the precipitation over southern areas should stay on
the light side. As far as precipitation type, most model soundings
suggest snow, through there should be a deep layer where temps
will be very close to freezing. Given the cold air in place, an
inch or two of snow appears possible over the southern half of
the forecast area by the time precip tapers Thursday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 342 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

Main forecast concern continues to be the potential for wintry
precipitation late Friday, Friday night, and early Saturday.

Confidence in the late week forecast remains mediocre at this point.
One thing that did happen to increase confidence some with the 00Z
models was much better agreement with the surface low track south of
the region Friday night. The GFS has been all over the place with
this, so alignment with the ECMWF and GEM is somewhat reassuring.

Unfortunately, the same cannot be said with regard to temperatures.
As with prior runs, the GFS continues to be warmer than the ECMWF.
It is to such an extent that a forecast of mainly rain would be
expected from the GFS, with primarily snow according to the ECMWF. I
am somewhat surprised the GFS is still so warm, especially given the
further south solution of its 00Z run. That said, the ECMWF may be
overdoing the extent of the cold air given the lack of a substantial
arctic air mass in close proximity. The forecast sounding profiles
from the GEM at least strike a balance between the GFS and ECMWF,
but are too generalized to engender much confidence.

Precipitation timing and amounts also remain quite varied. The GFS
is much quicker to spread precipitation into the area Friday
afternoon, while the ECMWF delays onset of any precipitation until
late Friday evening. Consequently, the ECMWF lingers precipitation
for a longer time on Saturday. Model QPF is also not in sync, but it
does appear as though models have shifted the heaviest precipitation
south of the immediate forecast area.

Given the continued disagreement among forecast models, we do not
plan to make many significant changes to the existing forecast. As a
result, will keep with the mention of rain and snow from the latter
half of Friday into the first part of Saturday across much of the
area. I really feel that our northern tier of counties--north of
Route 13 in southern Illinois and into southwest Indiana--will be
mainly snow. However, precipitation totals there will likely be the
lightest. Further south where more precipitation is expected to
fall, more in the way of rain appears possible. Whether or not a
heavier band of snow develops in between remains uncertain at this
point. Rest assured, the potential for this will be closely
monitored over the next few days.

Once the precipitation clears the area on Saturday, a return to dry
weather is expected through the remainder of the forecast period.
Temperatures will be seasonably cold over the weekend into early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1142 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

Cold front just about through the area, and there is still plenty
of gustiness along and behind it. The last of the showers should
push northeast of KEVV and KOWB in the next hour or two. In the
meantime, some MVFR conditions will be possible.

The larger area of MVFR clouds has just reached KCGI in the last
hour and should overspread the remainder of the area over the next
3 hours or so. As the secondary surface trough sweeps through the
area just after daybreak, IFR ceilings and possibly some drizzle
will be possible in the northeast, and ceilings at or below 1500
ft will be possible in the southwest.

There is some potential for breaks at KCGI in the evening, but
elsewhere MVFR ceilings should persist through the end of this
forecast period.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEFFERT
LONG TERM...RJP
AVIATION...DRS






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