Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 281733
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1233 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 227 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

As mentioned yesterday AM, high pressure will shift east to the
East Coast today. This will allow winds to become more southerly
and temperatures to warm back to seasonal levels by the the
weekend. An area of low pressure out over the Plains this morning
will drift east into nrn IL by Saturday. However, most the
mid/upper level energy with this system still looks to stay north
of our forecast area. Depending of the amount of sunshine
received, some locations may push to close to 90 for highs on
Saturday. A "dirty" ridge of high pressure will continue to be
anchored along the eastern seaboard through the remainder of the
weekend. A weakness aloft could generate a bit more in the way of
clouds...and possibly a stray shower/thunderstorm here and there.
However, if still appears most locations will go rainfree through
Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 227 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

With day to day variability on subtle mid-level features, it is
sometimes easy to overlook a larger pattern change in the making.
When looking at the medium range guidance, the GFS is the most
transparent in depicting a Rex block regime over the WFO PAH
forecast area.

Although the initial genesis of this Rossby Wave formation does not
show up until Monday over the WFO PAH forecast area, an extreme west
to east blocking pattern has been in place off and on for a few
weeks now with a ridge in the Southwest U.S./Mexico, a trough over
Southern Texas/Western Gulf, and a ridge over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico/Florida/Caribbean.

Locally, with this upcoming pattern in place, we could see a
prolonged period of dry weather over nearly all of the WFO PAH
forecast area through most of next week. There is still some
uncertainty as to whether the west coast trough will progress
eastward by next weekend, but satellite imagery of the
Central/Eastern Pacific has not appeared to hold any
progressive/dynamic wave trains for the past several days and no
significant waves seem to be crashing in from the Western Pacific.

For now, am keeping dry conditions in place for nearly all of the
WFO PAH forecast area in the extended portion of this forecast.
Given this scenario, should see more evapotranspiration and drying
of vegetation/soils...leading to at least 20 degree or more diurnal
temperature ranges and lighter wind fields.

Leaned closer to the GFS/Canadian influence to the blended model
guidance. Even the extended MOS guidance is suggesting low PoP
potential and 20-22 degree diurnal temperature ranges at selected

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

Low-level moisture will be on the increase from the southeast
through the period. CU will likely be late to develop this
afternoon, but may linger into the evening hours if not
overnight. This should all be solidly at VFR levels.

Looks like there should be a persistent light south wind tonight,
so did not mention fog at this time. Also guidance indicates that
lows will be well above the cross-over temperatures at all sites.

Will have to monitor for isolated convection Saturday, but
most likely just beyond this forecast period. This will be most
likely over west Kentucky. Otherwise, a decent south wind around
10kts will mix down by mid-morning, as a nice cu field develops.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...DRS



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