Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 080459

1159 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2014

Issued at 1159 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

Revised aviation discussion for 06Z TAFs.


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

At this writing, the main front is well to the north of the PAH
FA. A prefrontal trof was allowing some low level convergence in
the diurnally charged pm airmass, resulting in scattered
development of convection across or into portions of our southern
tier of counties. This will continue to be something to monitor,
though most activity attm appears to be just to our south.

The energy in the upper stream will drop the main front into the
area tonight-tmrw. This will result in an uptick in pops, esp
tmrw, as we peak in the likely cat. SLGT risk svr continues
through tmrw evening.

The front looks to make its passage thru nearly the entire FA by
midnight tmrw nite, if not the entire area. We lingered a slgt
chance hedge for the southern tier after midnight, but really
believe based on model trending that it will be effectively over
by 06Z Wed.

Drier/less humid and slightly cooler air comes in its wake, and
will be enjoyed for a couple days from the mid week on.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

The upper level flow pattern will remain unusually amplified for mid
summer across the conus. Surface high pressure will pass eastward
across the Great Lakes region Thursday...bringing some lower temps
and dew points. The high will move off the Atlantic coast by the
weekend...causing winds to veer around to the southwest. Temps and
dew points will climb again over the weekend.

In more detail...dry conditions are expected Thursday into Friday
under the influence of high pressure. Temps and dew points will be a
few degrees lower than seasonal norms.

As the high moves off to the east...temps and dew points will rise a
few degrees above seasonal norms for the weekend. There is a slight
chance of isolated storms in the very moist and unstable air
mass...mainly in the afternoon and evening. The better chance
appears to be Sunday as the upper level flow turns more northwest on
the fringe of an upper low.

Looking ahead to early next week...there is considerable model
variability regarding a deep upper vortex over south central Canada.
The 12z ecmwf aggressively digs the low southeast into the Great
Lakes...while the gfs and its ensemble mean keeps most of the energy
penned up in Canada. Will follow a model blend...which ramps up pops
along a cold front as it moves into the Lower Ohio Valley Monday.


Issued at 1159 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

Thunderstorm complex barreling across Missouri will likely impact
the region late tonight. Given the trajectory into a better feed of
instability, current thinking is that KCGI and KPAH both stand the
better chance of impact later tonight versus KEVV and KOWB. While
the overnight activity weakens and diminishes through the morning,
more outflow focused development is expected to regenerate with peak
heating as a cold front drops south across the area. This should
largely be south of the area by 00Z Wednesday. VFR conditions will
prevail outside of thunderstorm activity. South winds 5 to 10 knots
tonight will become southwest at 10 to 15 knots with gusts to 20
knots on Tuesday.




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