Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 180754

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
254 AM CDT TUE OCT 18 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 254 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

Another breezy and unseasonably warm day is on tap with high
pressure over the SE U.S. and southerly flow across the area.
A cold front will approach our far NW counties by 00z. Have a
slight chance of convection in to account, toward the end of the
day. Not much moisture to work with. This chance should shift east
this evening. But some of the higher res guidance shows isolated
activity could continue down through the middle of the area. After
midnight, chances for convection increase slightly as a weak mid
level waves moves through.

Hard to say where the front will end up on Wednesday given varying
model solutions. Probably across the NW corridor of the CWFA.
Best chances will be near the front, tapering off to slights or
no chance toward the KY/TN border. By late afternoon and evening,
should some of the convection be surface based, some strong to
severe storms cannot be ruled out near the front given adequate
instability and moderate mid level wind fields. Likely chances
for convection will continue Wednesday night, then across the
east 1/2 of the area Thursday morning. The NAM is slowest, GFS
fastest with the progression of moist axis, frontal boundary and
H5 trof axis Thursday. The EC 00z run slowed slightly, but not as
slow as the NAM. Will use a compromise for timing. Chances
tapering off in the afternoon and just a slight chance far east
counties Thursday evening. Tapered off TSRA chances faster as
well Thursday as the models have held steady with that depiction
for 4 days now.

Temps will be a blend of existing numbers and the latest MOS
output for highs. Lows will incorporate more Raw Model output
ahead of the front tonight and Wednesday night, then near MOS
Thursday night.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 254 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

Confidence in the extended portion of the forecast is fairly high
due to good model agreement.

At 12Z Friday, the upper trough axis will be situated east of our
area, with ridging over the southwest U.S. This puts us in northwest
flow, bringing in much cooler weather. There may be a clipper type
system that moves southeast in the wake of the upper low/trough
departing from the northeast this weekend. However, at this time any
precip looks to stay north of our area closer to the Great Lakes.
The only influence may be some cloud cover for a time, particularly
for our northeast counties. Thus a dry forecast is expected through
the weekend and into early next week. Upper level heights will
gradually rise through Sunday and Monday, as ridging moves east into
the Plains states, and the east coast trough lifts northeast from
New England.

Temperatures will start out below normal on Friday, with some
locations struggling to reach 60 degrees for highs along with a
brisk northwest wind. This will be quite a shock compared to what we
are experiencing now! Lows Friday night look to drop into the low
40s. So, there is currently no concern for frost. Temperatures
will be near normal this weekend warming through the 60s on
Saturday and returning to the 70s by Sunday and Monday.


Issued at 254 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

Main issue with this forecast package is wind, including low level
wind shear through sunrise. Area wind profiles show around 45 kts
of southwesterly wind at 2000 ft currently, with the strongest
winds up around KEVV closer to the low level jet maximum. Sfc
winds around 10 kts will be common through sunrise, before
gradually ramping up again by 14Z. Winds will gust up around 20
kts tmrw, with highest up in KEVV/KOWB areas, where the stronger
pressure gradient will reside. Mid level cloud deck around 4-5kft
will push into the area thru the day, ahead of the cold front, and
by evening should be BKN coverage over most of the area.


.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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