Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 210024
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
724 PM CDT Sat May 20 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 724 PM CDT Sat May 20 2017

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

UPDATE ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT SAT MAY 20 2017

Have decided to generally low PoPs tonight based upon current
radar trends and the HRRR. Showers and a few storm are moving
across southern Missouri and should reach the CWA within 1-2
hours. Expect the coverage to be scattered.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 147 PM CDT Sat May 20 2017

We see Low pressure on the IA/NE border, with a trailing cold
front southward to the Red River valley, separating cooler/drier
air with 40s/50s dew points behind it, from the warm/moist air
ahead of it/across the mid Mississippi river valley, where dew
points in the mid-upr 60s are commonplace. The models still take
this front eastward and across our area tonight, with latest
modeling of fropa into our west sometime from 03-06Z, to departing
our east sometime from 15-18Z. Pcpn chances will effectively end
with, or shortly after, fropa.

The best threat of svr, slgt risk per swody1, will be across our
far east late this pm, during peak heating. So far/so good, as
the existing convection looks to be remaining just below svr
limits. Better wind fields will shift eastward as the front
approaches, but we`ll likely be out of the peak heating window by
then.

Pleasant change is on the way after fropa, with temps cooling back
into the 70s and 50s to finish the weekend and begin the early
work week.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 147 PM CDT Sat May 20 2017

Confidence in the long term portion of the forecast is fair owing to
minor differences in model forecasts of synoptic scale features.

An upper level low over the Upper Midwest is forecast to track into
southeastern Canada through early next week. Interestingly, a piece
of energy wrapping around this low early in the week is forecast to
result in the development of another upper low near or south of Lake
Michigan by mid week. With the approach of this low and the passage
of a weak surface front, the chance of showers and thunderstorms
will return Tuesday into Tuesday night.

Moisture and energy wrapping around the upper low will be enough to
keep a chance for showers into Wednesday and Wednesday night across
much of the area. A small chance may even linger into Thursday over
far eastern portions of the area depending on how quickly the low
departs. A return to mainly dry weather is anticipated by Friday and
next Saturday as an upper level ridge builds east from the Plains.

After highs forecast in the lower to mid 70s on Tuesday, cooler
readings in the 60s are anticipated on Wednesday with northwesterly
winds on the back side of the low.  A slow warming trend will ensue
Thursday into Saturday with highs forecast to reach the 80 degree
mark by Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 724 PM CDT Sat May 20 2017

Will forecast unrestricted CIGS/VSBYS through the TAF periods.
Have inserted a 6 hour period of vicinity showers for each TAF
site tonight beginning at KCGI at 03Z and KOWB at 07Z. CIGS/VSBYS
could briefly lower to MVFR in showers with isolated thunder also
possible. Winds will shift to the NW overnight/early Sunday as a
cold front passes each TAF site.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RLS



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