Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 171155
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
555 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 553 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

For aviation section only.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 315 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

Mid/upper level ridging along with a surface high over the
southeast U.S. will bring abundant sunshine again today along
with a continuation of the warming trend that has been taking
place across the region. the past couple of days. After highs
yesterday in the upper 50s to around 60, temperatures today
should max out in upper 60s to around 70.

A southern stream upper low will eject northeast from the southern
Plains later tonight and Saturday. The 00Z operational GFS
continues to be an outlier compared to the NAM/ECMWF and Canadian
runs with it`s rather robust QPF of 1/4 to 1/2 inch Saturday over
southern/eastern portions of the forecast area, esp in wrn KY.
Other models just spit out a smattering of light precip despite
very similar synoptic signal compared to the GFS. Will limit
amounts to 1/10 inch of so over wrn KY for this package. Mild
conditions will continue despite extensive cloud cover, with
warmest temps over se MO where mid/upper level clouds should allow
at least some sunshine to filter through.

Amplified ridging pattern will commence Saturday night and Sunday.
This, along with a return to ample sunshine, will help to push max
temps up to near record levels Sunday afternoon to near record
levels. Most locations will peak out in the upper 60s to lower
70s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 325 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

A highly amplified pattern will be in place at the start of the
period, with an upper level ridge starting to exit the area and a
elongated trough across the country`s midsection. Models have come
into better agreement now that we will likely need some POPs late
Monday night across far western sections of the CWA, as this upper
trough nears and moisture increases across the area.

Better chances areawide arrive on Tuesday but there are still
differences in QPF between models. This is due in part to the
stronger northern end of this system. An upper level low will cut
off over Texas Monday evening and the northern end of this trough is
projected to be a bit stronger as it crosses east across the central
Plains and eventually into the Missouri Valley. Models differ on the
strength right now. In addition, a frontal boundary is depicted to
our west, but weakens as it shifts eastward. At this point, cannot
see going any higher than 20-30 POPs for Tuesday. The GFS ensemble
precip mean indicates the best chances across our south, which makes
sense. Then there is the Canadian model, which shows us in between
systems and leaves us totally dry Monday night through Friday.

Whatever rain chances we do have on Tuesday are expected to decrease
steadily Tuesday evening from west to east. Chances for rain on
Wednesday are still questionable. It all depends on the path of the
upper low to our south, along with how our next system evolves. A
strong sfc low will eject out of the eastern Rockies and into the
central Plains states Thursday night. As that occurs, a warm front
may lift northward across our area Wednesday night, which may
provide us with a chance for some precipitation. Small chances for
precipitation will continue for the rest of the week as this system
approaches and a fropa occurring possibly Friday night, which is
when POPs will peak.

After a warm day in the lower 70s on Monday (trended toward the
warmer guidance), the rest of the week will stay in the mid to upper
60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 553 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

Soutwest winds may gust into the teens by late morning into the
afternoon. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail with scattered
high cirrus and no visibility restrictions anticipated.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GM
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...CW



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