Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 280146
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
846 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 846 PM CDT Sat Aug 27 2016

The last of the storms died out over Christian county around
sunset, and no further precipitation is expected across the area
tonight. With dewpoints in the middle 70s across the area this
evening, it should be a rather mild night, despite mostly clear
skies and light winds. Cannot rule out some fog formation, but
with the strong mixing that occurred throughout the area this
afternoon, will not mention any fog in the forecast at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Sat Aug 27 2016

The short term will continue to be dominated by strong high
pressure over the East Coast that will actually try to retrograde
farther west into the mid MS River Valley by Monday evening. As a
result, precipitation chances will be rather small and more
diurnal in nature with coverage mainly dependent on the location
of small scale/mesoscale focusing mechanisms such as outflow
boundaries and differential heating.

Temperatures will remain above normal through the period with
highs generally in the lower half of the 90s and surface dew
points hanging in the lower to mid 70s. Most locations should
flirtwith heat indices up around 100 both Sunday and Monday
afternoons.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Sat Aug 27 2016

Models show a weak upper level trof off to our west in the Central
Plains through mid week.  With a warm moist air mass in place across
our region, models indicate this will be enough to trigger some
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across mainly the
western half of the PAH forecast area Tuesday into Tuesday night,
and across our entire region on Wednesday. Despite north to
northeast winds, temperatures for this period will remain near to
above seasonal normals with highs in the upper 80s to around 90
degrees with lows around 70.  Daytime dew points will remain in the
lower to middle 70s, which will keep heat indices in the middle 90s
to near 100 degrees on Tuesday, and a few degrees lower for
Wednesday.

By Thursday, models show surface high pressure sinking southward out
of Canada across the Great Lakes region, while an upper level ridge
builds across the southern and central Plains.  This should give our
area a period of dry weather.  The surface high sinking south with
continue to give us north to northeast flow, but it will also start
bringing drier and cooler air into the middle Mississippi and lower
Ohio Valleys.  High temperatures will be in the lower to middle 80s
Thursday and Friday, and dew points will drop off into the middle to
upper 60s.  By Saturday, the surface high will be off to our east,
and winds will begin to shift toward the south.  This will lead to
temperatures and dew points being a degree or two higher on
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 638 PM CDT Sat Aug 27 2016

The WFO PAH TAF sites will remain in the general sweet spot
outside of convective activity, but within the influence of
western sections of the west-northwestward tilted ridge axis.
Given the orientation of the ridge, winds should be variable
between 000 and 180 degree quadrant for all locations. VFR
conditions should remain dominant with minimal impact due to
visibilities and ceilings.


&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...Smith



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