Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 290046
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
746 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 743 PM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016

Update for aviation section only.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016

Hardly any clouds with drier air across the area this afternoon. A
broad weak low remains across the area with a weak surface front
to our east. NVA moves across the region tonight, keeping it dry.
S/WV ridge will move NE of the area with mid level energy moving
NE from the southern Plains toward the area Friday. As a result a
return chance of convection, perhaps a tad faster than previously
forecast. Mostly showers with limited instability Friday. Best
chance will be across SEMO, dropping to slight chance in the
afternoon KEVV tri-state.

Friday night through Saturday will be an unsettled period, with on
and off chances of convection. Best chance may be late Friday
night into Saturday morning as a warm front lifts north across
the area coincident with the passage of mid level forcing.
Temperatures will be a blend of MOS and previous forecast numbers.
Model preference was an even EC/GFS/NAM blend.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016

Models bring a surface low across the PAH forecast area on Sunday,
which will keep showers and some thunderstorms in our forecast, with
the best chances in our eastern counties.  The low will move east
across our region overnight Sunday, and showers and storms will
taper off from west to east Sunday night.  We will be dry Monday,
then models are very inconsistent with a weather system sliding
south of our area Monday night into Tuesday.  Previous ECMWF keeps
most precipitation south of our area, but the latest run brings a
large swath of QPF into our area.  Latest GFS produces a few spots
of precip in our southern counties, while the previous run kept us
dry.  Will go with a dry forecast for now and see if the models can
come together over the next few runs.

Latest GFS is quicker building a surface high into our region for
the rest of the week, and the previous ECMWF matches up better with
the latest GFS than the 12z ECMWF run.  Will keep the rest of the
extended dry too, but a few adjustments may be needed once some
confidence and consistency can be found in the model solutions.

Winds becoming northwest to north behind our Sunday/Sunday night
system will bring some cooler air into our region.  High
temperatures Sunday will range from around 70 degrees north to the
upper 70s south, then Monday readings will be in the middle to upper
60s.  Lows Sunday night and Monday night will be near seasonal in
the upper 40s to lower 50s.  Temperatures will moderate a little for
mid week, with readings near seasonal through the rest of the
extended.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 743 PM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016

Expect no more than high VFR cigs and light winds through the TAF
period.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GM
AVIATION...GM


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