Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 252322
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
522 PM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 522 PM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

Updated for aviation discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 207 PM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

High pressure will move across the region tonight and result in
clear skies and light winds. Blended colder MOS, which lowered our
min temps a few degrees. A short wave will approach late Sunday
and move across the area Sunday night through early Monday. First,
dry Sunday, with low PoPs entering our western counties late
afternoon (SEMO, SW IL). Showers will accompany the wave, with
highest PoPs across our southern counties Sunday night through
early Monday. PoPs will diminish from west to east, and probably
end for the most part by Monday afternoon. Rain chances return
Monday night, though coverage is uncertain at this time given a
lack of foci aloft. Mainly driven by low trop WAA. Longer term
temps will be a MOS blend.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 207 PM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

Model continuity has improved for the extended...so confidence is
better for next week.

The flow aloft will be out of the southwest and aid in the arrival
of warmer and moist air ahead of an approaching warm front from
the southwest. By Tuesday we will be in the warm sector as the
front lifts north of the area. This has resulted in the chance for
thunderstorms no later than Tuesday afternoon. The best chance of
storms and significant rainfall amounts will come Tuesday night
as a cold approaches from the northwest. Some storms could be
strong and possibly severe. The best chance of strong storms will
along and south of US highway 60 across SEMO and the Jackson
Purchase. Then along and south of the West KY parkway through the
Pennyrile. An upper level trough will rotate through the area
Wednesday night, kicking the front well east of the area with
much cooler dry air in its wake. Prior to the cold front
temperatures could soar to near 70 by Tuesday then falling back to
near normal by Friday. So warm and rainy early in the week then
cool and dry later part and through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 522 PM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

Tonight high pressure moving across the area will result in light
winds and clear skies. Late tonight, through midday Sunday, high
level clouds will spread from west to east across the area with
SSE winds 5-10 kts developing.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$



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