Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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000
FXUS63 KTOP 010848
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
348 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

EARLY THIS MORNING STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT WAS OCCURRING AT THE
310K THETA SURFACE FROM SOUTHWEST IA, SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS
WESTERN MO. AN MCS WAS DEVELOPING JUST SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE KC
METRO AND SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MO THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. A SECOND AREA OF STORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST IA AND
NORTHWEST MO WILL MAY INTENSIFY INTO A COMPLEX OF STORMS AS IT MOVES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN MO. RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
COUNTIES OF THE CWA MAY DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST DUE TO THE
LACK OF LIFT AND WARMER AIR AT 850 AND 700 MB ACROSS THE CWA. I WILL
KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL KS, THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED ELEVATED STORM POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE MID MORNING HOURS. THE ELEVATED STORMS ACROSS THE TOP CWA WILL
NOT BE SEVERE OR STRONG.

WE MAY SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP FROM THE LATE MORNING HOURS THROUGH
MOST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AS
IT DIGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST NE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A SURFACE
LOW WILL DEVELOP EAST CENTRAL KS, THOUGH SOME OF THE MESO-SCALE
MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING NORTHEAST OF ICT. FROM THE
SURFACE LOW A WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED
THROUGH THE THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND EXTEND EAST-NORTHEAST FROM THE
SURFACE LOW ACROSS WESTERN MO. THE CAP MAY BE TOO STRONG FOR STORMS
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE CWA BUT A SLIGHTLY WEAKER CAP AND
STRONGER ASCENT AHEAD OF THE H5 TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHEAST NE WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WARM
FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS
WEST-CENTRAL MO. THESE STORMS MAY BACK BUILD NORTHWEST INTO EAST
CENTRAL KS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. HIGHS
WILL VARY ACROSS THE CWA WITH MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES
REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S. THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES...NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...HIGHS MAY ONLY REACH THE MID TO UPPER
80S.

BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT/OFB WILL INCREASE TO 2500 TO 3500 J/KG BY 00Z THU...AND
SURFACE TO 6 KM EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE 35 TO 45 KTS. THUS...THE
ENVIRONMENT WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, EVEN
ORGANIZED ROTATING UPDRAFTS WHICH COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY, 0-1KM SRH
WILL INCREASE TO 150 TO 250 J/KG ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. IF
AN ORGANIZED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM MANAGES TO DEVELOP ALONG OR
JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY THERE COULD BE A TORNADO RISK. AT THIS
TIME THERE REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTIES WHERE MORNING CONVECTION
WILL PUSH THE BOUNDARY AND WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. ALSO THE CAPPING
INVERSION MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT STORMS FROM BACK BUILDING
WEST AND NORTHWEST FROM WEST CENTRAL MO INTO EAST CENTRAL KS. I
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SPC EXTENDS THE SLIGHT RISK WESTWARD TO US
75 DURING THE 12Z UPDATE.

TONIGHT, THE SURFACE LOW AND WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE
CWA DURING THE MID AND LATE EVENING HOURS...AS THE H5 TROUGH DIGS
SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MO...WHICH WILL BRING AN END TO THE RAIN
CHANCES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

FIRST WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SHOULD BE SHIFTING OFF TO THE
SE THU MORNING LEAVING A BOUNDARY TO SETTLE NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER
BY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE ANOTHER WAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
DAKOTAS AND ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING WE SHOULD SEE SCT TSRA
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA WITH MAIN FOCUS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
NEAR THE SFC BOUNDARY. FOR NOW WILL KEEP GENERAL 30 POPS DUE TO
BROAD ALBEIT MODEST LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE ESPECIALLY HAVE
TO WATCH ANY COMPLEX THAT MAY MOVE OUT OF NE EARLY IN THE DAY AS
ANOTHER POSSIBLE SCENARIO FOR STORMS. THE WAVE WILL PASS OVERHEAD
ON FRI COOLING MID LVLS WHICH COULD LEAD TO PM SCT STORMS AND WILL
KEEP 20-30 POPS IN THE FCST ALTHOUGH THE FRI- FRI NIGHT PERIOD MAY
END UP AS MAINLY QUIET/DRY.

FOR JULY 4TH/SAT ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH IN NW FLOW ALOFT
AND ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION WE COULD ONCE
AGAIN SEE SCT STORMS BY EVENING OR MORE LIKELY OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SUN. GFS IS VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH SCENARIO OF A COMPLEX
DIVING SE OUT OF NE SAT NIGHT WHILE ECMWF IS DRY BUT DOES ALSO
INDICATE A WAA PROFILE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT SO WILL KEEP CURRENT
CHC POPS.

BEST SIGNAL FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP MAY END UP BEING MON-TUES PERIOD
AS ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS A FRONT SAGGING INTO THE AREA WITHIN ZONAL
FLOW SO COULD BE A WET COUPLE OF DAYS EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS IN
THE EXTENDED NEAR OR BELOW AVG.



&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSRA IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT
KTOP/KFOE THROUGH 12Z. ACTIVITY MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER
09Z, HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS ON TSRA CLUSTER OVER NE
HOLDING TOGETHER TO IMPACT THE AREA SO WILL LEAVE IN VCTS. EAST
WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST NEAR 23Z.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARGAN
LONG TERM...OMITT
AVIATION...BOWEN



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