Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 220910
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
410 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 409 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

Early Sunday morning featured plenty of mid to high cloud cover
keeping temperatures on the warm side, ranging from the upper 50s in
far northeast KS to the low 60s under thicker clouds in central KS.
There were a few showers in central KS as well amidst weak
isentropic ascent and weak elevated instability. There is a small
chance for these showers to continue east into the forecast area
this morning but with such weak lift it seems to only be a slight
chance for light scattered precip if it makes it as far east as the
HWY 81 corridor. A steady stream of moisture was being pumped north
this AM on a 40-50 kt low level jet with a direct Gulf feed. This
will lead to markedly more humid conditions in the area today with
dewpoints climbing into the 60s. Warmer air will also be incoming,
and highs are likely to approach 80 degrees today across the entire
area with no precipitation expected from late morning through the
evening.

Overnight tonight, a weak vorticity maximum is expected by all model
guidance to bring increased vertical motion to central and eastern
Kansas after midnight. The LLJ will be in place again with continued
moisture advection. Model forecast soundings indicate that most
elevated parcels will have a good amount of convective inhibition
through much of the night but a modest increase in mid level lapse
rates in addition to the influx of low level moisture should provide
decreasing stability with time and the vort max is likely to be
sufficient to initiate elevated thunderstorms probably in the 4-7 AM
time frame. A few strong storms are possible, but effective shear
for these parcels is not particularly strong and the instability is
moderate at best so despite some aggressive convection-allowing-
model interpretations, currently believe that the severe potential
through sunrise Monday is on the low end.


.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 409 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

Monday through Saturday ...

This upcoming week continues to look active with the potential for
thunderstorms every day as surface and mid-level features remain
fairly persistent.  A broad mid-level trough will remain anchored
across the western U.S. with the forecast area staying wedged
between surface high pressure over the eastern U.S. and surface low
pressure to the west across portions of the High Plains and Central
Plains.  With these features in place, expect persistent southerly
flow to support continued moisture advection and warm-air advection
into the region to help reinforce conditionally unstable conditions
essentially every day this week.

Monday may be an active weather day as an ongoing MCS from late
tonight will likely still be progressing eastward across the CWA
Monday morning, resulting in some widespread moderate to heavy rain
at times.  Once this morning MCS exits to the east, there is the
potential for the atmosphere to destabilize enough through the
afternoon to help support additional thunderstorms late Monday
afternoon through Monday night.  Models show a cold front stretching
across western Kansas and possibly nosing toward north central
Kansas Monday evening. This boundary combined with the development
of an embedded shortwave over south central Nebraska should help to
spark thunderstorm development. With ample instability and increased
shear by Monday evening, some strong to severe thunderstorms will be
possible across the entire outlook area and have likely PoPs for
Monday and Monday night.

With the surface and mid-level features remaining fairly unchanged
with additional embedded waves and persistent southerly flow helping
to reinforce instability across the area, expect ongoing chances for
thunderstorms throughout the remainder of the week.  However, with
each day the timing and location details of thunderstorm development
will be dependent upon what lingering outflow boundaries are in the
area from earlier convection and whether or not the atmosphere has
enough time to recover to support the development of additional
strong to severe storms.  With these uncertainties in the timing and
location of storms, have kept just chance PoPs in the forecast for
Tuesday through Saturday.  However, the persistent moisture
advection will help to support sufficient instability across the
area through the week.  Models suggest that 0-6km shear values may
be stronger in the 30-40kt range by mid to late week. Additionally,
the cold front should begin to extend into at least north central
Kansas by Wednesday and remain anchored there through Saturday. This
boundary combined with the dryline advancing further east into at
least central Kansas should aid in the initiation of thunderstorms
that would likely advance eastward across the forecast area.  As a
result, most of the forecast area has been outlooked in a Slight
Risk by SPC through Tuesday with Thursday and Friday also looking to
be days with a decent potential for some strong to severe storms.
With all of the strong to severe thunderstorm potential this week,
all severe modes may be possible: large hail, damaging winds,
possibly a few tornadoes, and several days with some moderate to
heavy rainfall which may result in an increasing threat for flooding
throughout the week. With this steady pattern in place, expect
fairly consistent temperatures with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s,
and low temperatures remaining mild in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

VFR conditions expected through most of the taf period. The models
are showing lower ceilings moving towards MHK late in the period.


&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Sanders



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