Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 271725

1225 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 226 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

Current indications are that the mid/upper level trough is tracking
eastward along the US Canadian border, and will continue to dig
towards the Great Lakes region today. This system will drag a cold
front through the region, which is just now sliding into northwest
KS and south central NE. Ahead of the cold front a decent pressure
gradient still exists mainly across east central KS. This is where
winds may remain gusty until the front passes through later this
afternoon. Most of the models agree that the mid level inversion
will keep things capped despite the cooling associated with the
trough. Low level frontogenesis appears to increase especially when
the front is in eastern KS. It is this area where there is a slight
chance for a shower or thunderstorm to develop along the front
although the cap may hold strong this time around. Behind the front
cooler temperatures could help saturate a deep enough layer to
produce a light shower while the low level lift is still present.
Either way there is not much in the way of accumulations even in
east central KS. The pressure gradient appears to increase again
behind the front as high pressure noses down the front range, so
expect a period of gusty northwest winds during the late afternoon
and evening. Clouds continue to spread across the region today ahead
of the system and briefly behind the front before clearing out by
sunrise tomorrow morning. High temperatures today range from the low
70s near the NE state line to the low 80s in southeast KS. Cooler
air filters in overnight leading to low temperatures generally in
the 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 226 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

Light westerly winds and sunny skies move over the area on Tuesday
as upper trof moves into the Great Lakes states and brings high
pressure in behind. Highs in the lower 60s for the daytime hours
should fall into the 30s overnight as clear skies and light winds
decouple in the cool airmass. Some spots may come close to
freezing before sunrise on Wednesday. Southerly flow on the back
side of the high return quickly for Wednesday afternoon and boost
highs back into the middle and upper 60s. Reasonable model
agreement that the southern end of a fast moving upper shortwave
trof clips the area early Thursday, but any appreciable
precipitation is not noted and will keep forecast dry. Clouds and
mixing should keep overnight lows in the 40s. Cold advection with
the system starts to filter in late Thursday but should reach
highs in the 60s before stronger advection comes southward. Lows
in the 30s to low 40s only rise into the 50s for Friday.

Next upper longwave trof moves toward the Central Plains for the
weekend, leaving southwesterly upper flow and southerly surface
winds to bring another boost in temperatures. Highs in the 60s
with lows in the 40s and breezy south winds at times are shaping
up for the weekend. Could see some rain on Sunday depending on
speed of the system as it moves eastward. Not a strong consistent
signal as of yet and will have a dry forecast at this time.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Main focus is
timing of wind shift with the frontal boundary. Front has been
moving a little faster than models and expect it to move through
TOP and FOE around 19Z shifting winds to the northwest.
Precipitation looks to remain southeast of the terminals and have
kept them dry.




SHORT TERM...Sanders
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