Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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000
FXUS63 KTOP 270438
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1138 PM CDT Sun Oct 26 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

The upper trough was over the western states with a 300 mb jet
streak moving into the 4 corners. Deep mixing has allowed
temperatures to warm to much above normal with readings in the mid
to upper 80s this afternoon as well as gusty south winds up to
36 mph.

Winds will subside this evening with the loss of heating and
slackening pressure gradient. Winds do remain mixed in the lower
boundary layer through the night and do not expect much in the way
of fog. Lows tonight will be mild with lows will range from the
lower 50s in north central Kansas to the lower 60s in east central
Kansas.

A cold front will move southeast across the Northern and Central
Plains tonight as the upper trough moves eastward across the
Rockies. The front should move into north central Kansas by Monday
morning then proceed eastward across northeast and east central
Kansas. Expect the front to extend from southeast Nebraska to near
Manhattan south to Wichita by early afternoon, then along or
southeast of I-35 by early evening. Models show a weak lead
shortwave moving across southern Kansas in the morning. Bufr
soundings from NAM and GFS show very dry air below 650 mb so have
removed slight chances of showers. Atmosphere remains capped off to
surface based convection with stout EML in place. Soundings show the
cap eroding in the late afternoon hours, so will keep small chances
of showers and thunderstorms across parts of northeast and east
central Kansas. Highs on Monday will be cooler than today, but still
above normal with temperatures in the 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

Models fairly consistent in moving the front southeastward across
the far southeast county warning area by early evening with a chance
for showers and thunderstorms generally along and east of the Kansas
Turnpike. Otherwise will keep the overnight hours dry with
decreasing clouds and lows in the 40s as cooler and drier air surges
into the area.

Models are in agreement with keeping the cwa in northwest flow aloft
through the remainder of the work week with another shortwave trough
and associated front moving through the area Wednesday night. This
will limit highs through the week to generally the 60s...although
some middle to upper 50s are expected for Friday and Saturday. As
the the upper ridge in the western CONUS shifts eastward by next
weekend...highs should rebound back into the 60s for Sunday.

Models are not in agreement with precipitation chances with the wave
moving through the area Wednesday night...so with limited moisture
and uncertainty on precipitation chances...have decided to maintain
a dry forecast through the remainder of the week and into next
weekend...although precipitation chances could begin to increase
just beyond this forecast as another stronger trough approaches from
the west.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1132 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

VFR prevails through forecast period as occasional gusty
southerly winds gradually veer to the southwest and weaken through
sunrise. Weaker winds are expected within the passing trough axis
before a cold front arrives during the afternoon. West to
northwest winds prevail thereafter as speeds increase above 10 kts
sustained. Confidence remains low on light showers impacting
KTOP/KFOE.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...Bowen






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