Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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000
FXUS63 KTOP 232259
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
559 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 338 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

The 1930Z water vapor imagery showing exiting shortwave trough
across eastern KS with backing flow aloft ushering in high level
moisture from the high plains. The high level moisture matches up
well with the sct-bkn cirrus shield that will overspread the county
warning areas this evening and overnight. The low level cloud deck
has slowed across the southeast 1/3 of the CWA and is expected to
diminish and slowly advect northward later this evening and
overnight...although not expecting the cloud cover to be
overcast...but should be enough along with increased mixing in the
boundary layer to offset low level dense fog...although some patchy
is expected later tonight with moisture advection increasing across
the north and east. Kept lows in the middle 50s.

On Friday...warm advection will continue across most residual clouds
lift off to the north and east of the CWA. Temps at 850 warm to near
20 deg C over the western counties so highs there in the middle 80s
look on track with the lower 80s east. Winds should remain south at
speeds generally in the 10 to 15 mph range.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 338 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

A weak frontal boundary will slide south into northeast Kansas
Friday night and Saturday with light easterly winds. Mixing is
rather shallow on Saturday which will offset warming at 850 MB into
the 18 to 21 degrees Celsius. Still should see highs in the mid to
upper 70s with areas near central Kansas warming to the lower 80s.

An upper level ridge will move across the Southern and Central
Plains Sunday and Sunday night in advance of a longwave trough
moving across the western states. 850 MB temperatures warm again
into the 18C to 21C range on Sunday and soundings show mixing from
around 850 MB. Expect highs to warm into the low to mid 80s.

Monday through Tuesday night the upper level trough will move across
the Rockies and across the Central Plains. A cold front will move
move into northeast Kansas during the day on Monday. Forecast
soundings show a stout capping inversion which will keep convection
from developing along the front. Dynamic forcing increases Monday
night as the trough processes eastward for widespread showers and
thunderstorms to develop. Good moisture advection may lead to some
locally heavy rainfall Monday night. The upper level trough axis
moves through on Tuesday and bringing an end to the precipitation by
early evening. Temperatures will be more fall like behind the
departing system with cool high pressure keeping highs in the 60s
and lows in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 559 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Concerned that fog could develop overnight with light winds and
recent rainfall. However models show the pressure gradient
gradually increasing overnight while high cirrus continues to
overspread the area. Models do not seem to be keen on the idea of
stratus developing with some mid level dry air advecting in from
the west and possibly entraining into the top of the boundary
layer. Since there isn`t an ideal radiational cooling setup, will
keep a mention of MVFR VSBY at TOP and FOE. Less rainfall and more
mixing this afternoon makes fog a little less likely at MHK so
will monitor trends but not include a mention of BR just yet.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Wolters






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