Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 221117

National Weather Service Topeka KS
517 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 335 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2015

Latest surface analysis at 08Z had the surface high pressure ridge
from Texas into Illinois with south to southwesterly flow on the
backside across central and eastern Kansas. Shortwave that had
brought mid and upper level clouds to the area earlier was moving
southeast into northwest Missouri at 0830Z and the clouds were
quickly eroding across northeast Kansas. A dry northwest flow aloft
is expected through tonight with gradually rising heights.

Expect a weak surface trough to move east across the CWA and shift
the winds to a more westerly direction. Temperatures will warm into
the upper 40s to lower 50s with warm advection and plenty of
insulation. Lows tonight will cool into the upper 20s across the
area under mostly clear skies and light southwest winds.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 335 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2015

All attention turns to the system which will affect the area
beginning Tuesday night through Friday. During this time frame a
strong upper low digs over the Pacific northwest and down the est
coast. With southwest flow aloft and increased southerly flow
there will be a surge of low level moisture northward. Lift within
this layer could produce drizzle and or light rain through
Wednesday evening. An arctic high pressure will then slide
southward through the high plains bringing a front into the
region. Isentropic lift and large scale lift will increase
Wednesday night out ahead of the front. The models still hint at
some instability that could support thunderstorms, but the
coverage is uncertain at this point. The front is forecast to
arrive Wednesday night coupled with shortwave energy ejecting from
the southwest trough. This will supply plenty of deep lift for
widespread rainfall. By mid day Thursday the front should be
located somewhere across the area stretching from southwest to
northeast. Rainfall could be moderate at times along and just
behind the front for some locations during the day Thursday. The
shortwave energy lifting out of the southwest will phase with a
northern stream shortwave digging over southern Canada, and by
late Friday should drive the front into MO and southeast KS.

Sub freezing air behind the front could move into north central KS
as early as Thursday late afternoon and evening spreading eastward
overnight. Any post frontal precip could turn into a wintry mix
especially overnight Thursday. As of now the bulk of the precip will
fall as rain, but there are still indications this cold air could
under cut warm temps aloft. Exactly how warm these temperatures
actually are and how quickly this layer cools below freezing us
uncertain. All of these factors will be based on the timing of the
cold air and how far it lags behind the front. Impacts from any
wintry mix should be minimal given the warm temps Thursday which
will influence the roadways. Early next week the remaining energy from
the southwest trough will eject out over the plains bringing a
chance for rain or snow.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 506 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2015

VFR conditions are expected throughout the period.


.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Heller is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.