Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 210842
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
342 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 332 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

Early Saturday morning, high level clouds had overspread much of the
area from the northwest while an area of low to mid level moisture
was in place over central and western KS. The clouds have kept low
temperatures moderate in the low to middle 50s, and clouds will also
moderate our daytime highs as areas with the thicker clouds
(especially north central KS) will probably hold in the upper 60s
while areas farther east will climb into the low 70s. Continue to
see potential for a few showers and thunderstorms over the area
through much of the day today. This will be in response to
moistening of the mid levels and a weak but persistent area of
focused isentropic lift and convergence on the northeast fringe of
the moisture plume. This will probably initially focus in central KS
around sunrise, orienting along a relatively narrow area from
northwest to southeast, and with a very gradual shift to the east
through the day. Only expect a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE rooted in
this unstable layer, but should be sufficient to support scattered
showers within that band with some thunder as well. No heavy rain or
severe storms are expected. This activity should dissipate by late
in the day while additional shower or storm activity may develop in
western and central KS and approach the western parts of the
forecast area overnight. Overnight lows will again be moderated by
cloud cover and a southeast breeze, and should be in the 55-60
range.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 332 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

The mid-term and extended periods of the forecast continue to
highlight an active weather pattern in which there will be the
potential for some showers and thunderstorms essentially every day.
By Sunday, a narrow mid-level ridge will quickly skim eastward
across the central U.S. with a deep mid-level trough strengthening
across the western U.S.  At the surface, the CWA will be wedged
between high pressure over the eastern U.S. and an area of low
pressure over the High Plains region.  With the strengthening mid-
level trough extending eastward into the central U.S. Sunday into
Monday, it will help to push the area of low pressure and associated
cold front eastward into Kansas.  Models show this cold front and
the dryline remaining focused over far western Kansas Sunday night,
thus keeping the best potential for strong to severe storms focused
west of the CWA.  However, the strong southerly flow ahead of this
advancing system will support warm-air advection and decent moisture
advection into the region, resulting in modest instability setting
up by Sunday night. Despite decent instability, 0-6km bulk shear
values appear rather weak, so may only see some elevated
thunderstorms (primarily across north central Kansas). The potential
for showers and thunderstorms will shift eastward through the day on
Monday as the cold front advances into central Kansas.  This front
essentially becomes stalled out over central Kansas for much of next
week.  As a result, persistent southerly flow and presence in the
warm sector will support continued moisture advection into the
region, which will further assist in ongoing precipitation chances.
By Monday, models show morning showers and thunderstorms, but the
GFS/NAM are showing an embedded wave developing near the cold front
by Monday night, which would support additional showers and
thunderstorms through the evening. While the instability continues
to look decent, models show slightly better 0-6km bulk shear values
of around 30kts, so there is the potential for some strong and
possibly even severe storms across much of the outlook area Monday
night.

Models show the potential for precipitation to briefly diminish some
by Tuesday morning, but additional forcing from embedded shortwaves
and the stationary boundary should support the potential for more
strong thunderstorms late Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening.
Wednesday may be the best potential for the lowest precipitation
chances as the Tuesday night convection should diminish during the
morning hours on Wednesday and the better forcing for storms
Wednesday night may be focused north and east of the CWA. However,
some scattered storms still will be possible.  Additional
thunderstorms are possible on Thursday and Friday with the cold
front across central Kansas and with some models showing the dryline
extending at least into central Kansas. These surface features
combined with decent instability and shear could support the
development of strong to severe storms both days during the
afternoon and evening hours.  With several days of thunderstorm
chances, some decent QPF will be likely across portions of the
outlook area. As a result, flooding concerns may be on the rise
throughout the week.  With such a persistent surface and mid-level
pattern anchored in place next week, expect fairly consistent
temperatures with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s, and lows becoming
mild in the 60s.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016

Clouds are struggling to scatter out especially across central KS.
Satellite shows higher clouds over spreading from the northwest.
Restricted vis is looking less likely therefore removed it from
MHK. Models are showing showers and storms getting close to MHK
tomorrow sometime in the day, but the coverage looks to remain low
for now.


&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Sanders



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