Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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000
FXUS63 KTOP 182344
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
644 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 352 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

The center of an upper level trough was located across eastern ND
late this afternoon with an upper level trough axis extending
southwest across central SD. The numerical models show this upper
level trough digging southeast across southern MN and eastern NE
into northern MO. The southwest section of the upper trough will
move southeast across northeast KS between 6Z and 12Z. The NAM,
GFS and ECMWF forecast QPF across northeast and east central KS
later Tonight, with the ECMWF and NAM showing most of the CWA with
QPF. The NAM model shows weak isentropic lift at the 310K level
with LFCs around 700mb. The most intense isentropic lift at the
310K level will be across northern MO and IA.

The mesoscale models, consisting of the ARW, NMM and HRRR do not
forecast any QPF across the CWA tonight. I will probably keep slight
chance to chance pops across much of the CWA, since the ascent ahead
of the H5 trough combined with isentropic lift should allow elevated
thunderstorms to develop across the northeast counties of the CWA
around midnight, then building southwest across the central and
southwest counties of the CWA through the early morning hours before
spreading southeast across much of east central KS by 12Z TUE.

Any lingering elevated thunderstorms, if they do develop, will shift
southeast of the CWA during the mid morning hours. Skies should
clear through the late morning and early afternoon hours and
temperatures will warm into the lower to mid 90s. If there is a
leftover outflow boundary across the northeast counties, then
temperatures along the NE border may only reach into the upper 80s.
I placed in 14 pops in case there is enough surface convergence for
an isolated thunderstorm during the afternoon hours.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 352 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

Models are in agreement that heights rises and resulting warm air
advection will be situated across the northeast corner of the county
warning area Tuesday evening providing another chance for
thunderstorms. As this area focuses further northward through the
night...have removed pops this area after midnight. Will keep lows
mild in the low to middle 70s. This will then set the stage for
mostly sunny very warm...breezy day on Wednesday. Highs will
generally be 95 to 100 degrees with the warmest in the Abilene area
and the coolest near Hiawatha.

As the upper ridge builds across the southern plains...expect dry
weather across the cwa Wednesday night through Thursday. However...
with south winds continuing...highs Thursday will again be in the
middle to upper 90s.

As the cutoff upper trough in the desert southwest gets picked up by
Thursday and heads into the central and northern high plains into
the weekend...there will be better chances for thunderstorms across
the area...although the northern/northwest 1/2 of the cwa will be
the more likely areas to see rain. Do not expect a frontal passage
until during the day Sunday...so may not see highs temps below 90
degrees until Monday when readings in the middle to upper 80s should
be the rule.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 626 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

VFR conditions prevail at sites as new guidance is increasing
confidence for VCTS mention for scattered TSRA to form along and
north of a frontal boundary near the terminals. Best timing for
convection in vicinity of terminals is from 06Z to 13Z. Isolated
strong wind gusts are possible. VRB winds persist near the boundary
axis shifting towards the southeast during the afternoon.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...Bowen





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