Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 232329

National Weather Service Topeka KS
629 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016

A stellar fall day across the area today weather wise
as high temperatures rise into the 70s under clear skies.  An
incoming cold front has done little to impact sensible weather, but
does bring in drier dewpoints and has prevented highs from rising a
few degrees more.  For the overnight hours these light north winds
continue, and did cool lows a few degrees from guidance into the
upper 30s far north central to mid 40s in the east central counties.
This cooler high pressure remains over the area into Monday
afternoon but the end result will only be a few degrees cooler than
todays numbers with highs in the middle 60s to low 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Southerly winds increase on Tuesday as a mid level shortwave trough
and cold front sweep into Nebraska during the afternoon. Overall
trend continues to favor the trough axis and majority of qpf over
Nebraska Tuesday night into Wednesday, but still see some decent
potential for scattered storms as the front drifts southeast through
the CWA. Although bulk shear to 6 km is fairly weak around 30 kts
through Wednesday morning, elevated CAPE in excess of 3000 J/KG over
north central KS may produce a few stronger storms. System should
exit the region Wednesday afternoon with little in the way of a cool
airmass in its wake as an upper ridge builds north and east from the
southwest conus. Temps therefore remain mild in the lower to middle
70s Wednesday and Thursday, perhaps even reaching the low 80s on
Friday as pressure gradient increases winds in advance of the next
cold front from the northwest. At this time, much of the forcing
stays to our north Friday night as cooler air filtering southwards
drops highs back into lower 70s for next weekend. Lows stay above
normal with little in the way of freeze hazards to deal with through
the end of the month.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016

For the 00z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the period
with east/northeasterly winds prevailing at around 10kts or less.




LONG TERM...Prieto
AVIATION...Hennecke is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.