Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 232204

National Weather Service Topeka KS
404 PM CST MON NOV 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 318 PM CST MON NOV 23 2015

The short term period through Tuesday looks to be warm, dry, and
rather pleasant for this time of year. Upper flow will become more
zonal through this time with a pair of weak vorticity maxima
forecast to cross the central Plains. These will do little more than
provide an increase in upper cloud cover, although it will induce a
gradual enhancement to lee cyclogenesis and southerly flow into the
local area. Moisture return will begin in earnest by late Tuesday
with low level clouds increasing through the afternoon and becoming
overcast by the overnight hours. Will keep a southerly breeze over
the area tonight so lows should hold in the middle to upper 30s.
Temperatures on Tuesday will be similar to Monday although a few
degrees cooler given the expectation of increased clouds by
afternoon, and should see highs in the middle 50s to around 60.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 318 PM CST MON NOV 23 2015

An active weather pattern is expected through the Thanksgiving
holiday, which will likely result in impacts to travel across the

By Tuesday night, the region will be wedged between surface high
pressure over the eastern U.S. and low pressure along the eastern
edge of the Rockies.  This surface pattern will result in modest
southerly flow into the region, which should keep low temperatures
Tuesday night warmer in the mid/upper 40s and possibly even rising a
few degrees after midnight.  Models show this southerly flow helping
to advect some low-level moisture into the area late Tuesday night
through Wednesday.  Model soundings continue to show this saturation
remaining quite shallow, so expect predominantly drizzle through the
day with maybe some periods of light rain. Expect deeper saturation
across the region Wednesday night into Thursday as the closed mid-
level low over the western U.S. advances a bit further eastward and
pushes a cold front into north central Kansas by Wednesday afternoon
and tracks the front southeastward across the CWA through the
evening and overnight hours. As a result, widespread rain becomes
increasingly likely overnight and through the morning hours on
Thursday. There are still some slight model discrepancies with
regards to the exact timing of the front exiting the CWA, but it
should be by early to mid afternoon Thursday. Models show a decent
pressure gradient on the back-side of this system, so winds should
quickly shift to the north behind the front, resulting in a surge of
cold-air advection into the area.  As a result, have a non-diurnal
trend for temperatures on Thanksgiving, with highs potentially
reaching to around 60 degrees is far east central Kansas but
plunging from the upper 30s across north central Kansas. This strong
cold-air advection with a warm-nose in place will result in
precipitation transitioning from rain to a mix of freezing rain to
sleet to even some snow.  This transition may start as early as mid
to late afternoon Thursday across far north central Kansas and
progress southeastward through the evening and overnight hours.
There is still some uncertainty with regards to how quickly
precipitation will exit the area from northwest to southeast, but
models have been faster with any light lingering precipitation
Friday morning likely focused across east central Kansas, and much
of the area may be dry by the afternoon.  With a continued pressure
gradient and breezy northerly winds, persistent cold-air advection
will push Thursday night lows into the mid/upper 20s to low 30s and
Friday highs only into the mid/upper 30s.  The chances for any snow
accumulations looks to be quite low, however cannot rule out the
potential for some light ice accumulations, which certainly would
have an impact on travel conditions.

Into the weekend time frame, much of northeastern KS should still
remain dry and under the influence of a strong surface high pressure
ridge at least for part of Saturday.  There is enough disagreement
in the long range guidance to at least have a mix of rain/snow in
the forecast for Saturday night into Sunday as the GFS returns
warmer temps further North than the ECMWF solution.  Also, lift and
forcing with the GFS appears to be stronger and over a longer time
frame than the ECMWF.  There is the small possibility at this point
that some areas of northeast KS could see a mixed precip type on
Sunday as well.  However, it is to early at this point to completely
define the trend that is taking place.  More confidence will likely
be able to enter the forecast as the Thursday time frame gets closer
to see exactly how the trends have been handled at that point.

High temperatures will most likely remain below normal while low
temperatures should bottom out just below normal for this time of


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1118 AM CST MON NOV 23 2015

VFR conditions are expected throughout the period.


.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Drake/Hennecke
AVIATION...Heller is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.