Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 212319
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
619 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

An H300 ridge axis will currently over the eastern Rockies will
amply and shift into the Central Plains by Wednesday afternoon. As
an elongated H850 high over the Dakota and Nebraska likewise
translates SE, H850 return flow will ensue over the region
Wednesday morning. This will likely result in continued
stratus/stratocumulus over the southern and central CWA through
tonight and tomorrow. E to SE winds off a Great Lakes high will
keep high temperatures in the mid 50s tomorrow. Maintained slight
chance POPs along the far southern CWA in conjunction with the
increasing theta-e advection, but given the drier sub-cloud
profiles in NAM/RAP soundings, am not too hopeful in the
widespread rains.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

Upper weather pattern becomes more active in the extended, beginning
early Thursday morning with a lead impulse lifting moisture over a
warm front across the CWA. Light showers are possible through early
afternoon, under mostly cloudy skies and warming temperatures in the
70s. As the western upper trough deepens eastward late Thursday
night, scattered rain showers with embedded thunderstorms increase
by Friday morning. Convection may be marginally severe towards
central KS during this time with some steepening mid level lapse
rates in conjunction with 0-6 km bulk shear maximizing around 50
kts. Main hazard with this convection would be hail and gusty winds.
Higher chances for decent rainfall in upwards of half of an inch
become likely during the day Friday as moisture and available lift
co-locate and maximize across eastern areas of the CWA. Highs on
Friday (currently in the lower 70s) are somewhat uncertain depending
on the thickness of cloud cover and persistence of rainfall. As the
upper low slowly centers over northeast Kansas through Saturday,
showers become more scattered with temperatures cooling off into the
60s for highs. Still monitoring another round of marginally severe
storms late Friday into Saturday morning with the atmosphere
exhibiting a few hundred J/KG of elevated CAPE, while 0-6 KM bulk
shear values are around 45 kts ahead of the upper trough. By
Saturday afternoon and evening, upper level winds weaken as the low
fills and bulk of the precipitation diminishes eastward.

Looking ahead Sunday through the beginning of next week, another
quick shortwave trough shows decent consistency between guidance of
impacting the Kansas and Oklahoma areas Sunday night and Monday.
Could see some thunderstorms with this system as well, however the
better instability and wind shear lies further south into Oklahoma
at this time. Following this system, there is not much time for the
area to recover with sunshine before the next progressive upper
trough dives through the central plains in the Tuesday-Wednesday
time frame. An overall active pattern that will hopefully bring
the much needed rainfall to the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday)
Issued at 619 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

Models show moisture return through the day Wed as the surface
ridge slides east. Although the majority of guidance keeps the
saturated layer above 3KFT until Wed evening. So have a VFR
forecast persisting with the expectations for lowering CIGS after
00Z Thursday.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Skow
LONG TERM...Prieto
AVIATION...Wolters



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