Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 270500
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1200 AM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 327 PM CDT Mon Sep 26 2016

This afternoon, the upper low was located over the northern Great
Lakes region, with surface high pressure centered in western
Oklahoma and stretching into northeast Kansas.  This high pressure
will track south allowing for generally west winds through tomorrow.
With clear skies and diurnal heating, highs today are expected to
reach into the lower 70s.  Overnight, lows will dip into the upper
40s once again given the clear skies and typical cooling.  Warmer
925mb temps nose in from the west tomorrow providing more of a
east/west gradient for temperatures across the area.  Highs will
reach near 80 in central Kansas Tuesday, to the mid 70s in very
eastern Kansas.  Dewpoints will remain near 50 on Tuesday keeping
humidities pleasant and low.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 327 PM CDT Mon Sep 26 2016

An upper level low over the Great Lakes Wednesday night will move
south into the Ohio Valley as a strong lobe of energy rotates around
the upper low. This will bring a cool northerly flow into eastern
Kansas with high pressure building southward. This will temper highs
on Wednesday into the lower to middle 70s. Through the end of the
week the Plains will be in between the low in the east and a trough
in the Eastern Pacific. Dry weather will continue through the
weekend. Highs in the 70s and lows in the 40s. The ridge will break
down by late int he weekend as the Pacific trough moves out into the
western states. Return flow shows moisture will be best over the
western High Plains Sunday increasing across central Kansas on
Monday with some energy ejecting out into the Plains on Monday. So
will keep a small chance of showers and storms for Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT Mon Sep 26 2016

VFR conditions are likely through the TAF period although FOE
sensor is again showing signs of reduced visibility although there
is no vis restriction present. Winds at 800 feet AGL are
approaching 30 kts but should remain just less than LLWS criteria
before weakening after 14Z.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Heller
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Barjenbruch



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