Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 260819

National Weather Service Topeka KS
319 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 319 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

Area of convection continues to shift north in recent hours with
nearby radar wind profiles showing veering trends in the lower
levels. Surface front was working its way north into southern Kansas
though cloud cover remains prevalent to its south. RAP analysis
indicates several weak waves upstream in moderate southwest flow
aloft with a larger scale trough working east across the central and
northern Rockies.

Expect focus of precip to continue to shift north over the next
several hours. Will need to watch for training of higher precip
rates, but so far this has been limited and short-lived. Front
should continue on north into northern portions of the state through
the day, though the continued presence of the upper waves keeps
confidence on a convection-free warm sector before peak heating is
low, likely keeping instability somewhat in check. Mid and upper
level winds will support decent shear values, though lower level
speeds are weak. Will continue to mention some chance for severe
storms but confidence again remains low in thunderstorm evolution
and timing. Will have highest pops north this morning, with
decreasing low level jet expecting to bring lower coverage around
midday, and some uptick again in the late afternoon and evening. PW
values remain in the 1.5-2" range and elevated thickness and Corfidi
vectors suggest some training is possible for a heavy rain concern,
but the lack of confidence on trends prevents any Watch issuance.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

Convection may be ongoing Saturday morning as the southern end of
the Northern Plains trough moves through the Central Plains. The
warm front should lift north of the area with southerly winds
developing through the morning hours. Residual boundaries left over
from morning convection may fire additional convection across east
central Kansas in the afternoon. Isolated showers and thunderstorms
will be possible Saturday evening. Embedded waves will move through
the southwesterly flow aloft into Monday and will keep chances of
thunderstorms going. Precipitable water values remain around 1.5
inches for much of the week. An upper level develops from the
southeast U.S. westward into the Southern and Central Plains which
will keep embedded waves more to the north of the area as well as
any frontal boundaries. Expect to see more diurnally driven
convection in the late afternoon and into the evening hours. Highs
mainly in the 80s with lows in the 60s to lower 70s.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 643 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2016

Not much change since previous forecast. Thunderstorms from
northeast OK into southwest MO not moving north very fast so will
need to have upper system come across later tonight to provide
thunderstorm chances. Would expect cigs and vsbys to go down to at
least MVFR tonight with any storms that move through. Ceilings on
Friday morning should rise into the VFR category, and there will
be a chance for isolated thunderstorms again, but did not put in


.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for KSZ026-037>040-



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