


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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179 FXUS63 KTOP 280851 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 351 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot and Humid pattern continues this weekend with small chances for thunderstorms today and tonight. - Better chances for strong to severe storms are expected Sunday evening across the area. Damaging winds, small hail and locally heavy rainfall will be the main hazards. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 316 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 A very moist but weak flow regime remains in place across the area this morning. A weak wave was evident across northeast OK where another area of convection was developing. The surface pattern featured a somewhat uniform southerly flow across the area with no obvious boundaries apparent. For today, expect a near persistence forecast with morning showers or isolated storms across southeast KS and some of those may drift into the southeast parts of our area later this morning or into the afternoon. 500mb heights do show modest rises today so expect any showers or storms to be isolated. Highs should again range from the upper 80s southeast to mid 90s central. Tonight a 30-35kt LLJ should develop and generate lift/WAA and in turn scattered elevated convection after midnight across parts of the area. Shear remains weak so severe storms are not expected overnight. On Sunday a front will drop into southern NE with a very unstable atmosphere expected to develop ahead of the front across KS. Scattered clusters or lines of storms should develop by afternoon ahead of the front and surge south into the area. Modest shear but extreme instability should result in an environment favorable for damaging winds as line segments bow out and accelerate south into the evening. Some lingering showers or storms may persist across the southern half of the area Monday before high pressure builds in with cooler and less humid air by Monday night into Tuesday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1213 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Expect VFR conditions through the period with light south winds. Isolated convection will be possible Saturday afternoon but coverage doesn`t look sufficient to mention in the forecast at this time. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Omitt AVIATION...Omitt