Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 182024

National Weather Service Topeka KS
324 PM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

Upper flow on the fast side over the western and northern states
with water vapor showing a shortwave making quick progress east into
the Great Basin today. Surface high pressure was over southwestern
Nebraska with a cold front settling south from eastern Missouri to
northern Texas. Clear skies have dominated today with morning
sounding showing a rather dry atmosphere in place.

The upper wave will continue its quick pace, reaching Colorado late
tonight and deepening as it enters Kansas Wednesday. Mid-level flow
will respond to the wave and bring some isentropic lift into eastern
Kansas late tonight into early Wednesday, but moisture will continue
to be quite limited with only some increase in cloud anticipated for
the bulk of the area. Far southeastern areas could see a shower
early Wednesday afternoon as the moisture peaks. In addition to
increased high cloud from upper wave`s approach, expect Wednesday
highs to be a bit lower than today

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

Wednesday night, an upper level trough will dig east southeast across
central NE and western KS across northeast KS and northern MO.
The deeper gulf moisture will remain south of the CWA across OK,
extreme southeast KS and southern MO. The NAM model forecast about
100 j/Kg of MUCAPE but the atmosphere stablelizes through the
night and the isolated thunderstorms across central NE should
weaken by 00Z THU. I introduced only low chance POPs across the
northern counties with slight chance pops across the southern half
of the CWA. AS the upper trough shifts east-southeast and
amplifies across the mid and lower MS valley, the widely scattered
showers will move east and southeast of the CWA just after

Thursday and Thursday night, a surface ridge of high pressure will
build southward across eastern KS. Thursday will be our coolest day
of the forecast periods with highs only reaching the lower to mid
60s. The skies will clear during the morning hours from northwest to
southeast across the CWA. Clear skies and light winds will drop
overnight lows into the upper 30s, some area may dip into the mid
30s and there may be patchy front developing during the pre-dawn

Friday through Tuesday, An upper level ridge across the western US
will slowly shift east into the plains and amplify early next week
as an upper level trough digs and deepens across the western coast
of the US. Friday highs will warm int the mid to upper 60s, with mid
70s on Saturday and mid to upper 70s, may be lower 80s Sunday
through Tuesday. The weather pattern looks dry. A lead upper trough
will move into the western high plains Tuesday afternoon and may
bring a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

VFR conditions anticipated. A dry airmass building in and enough
north to northeast winds off the surface should prevent any
diurnal BR development. Could see stratus late in the forecast but
it should be well above limiting levels.




LONG TERM...Gargan
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