Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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302
FXUS63 KTOP 311138
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
638 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 318 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2016

Convection continued across east central Kansas this morning at 07Z
in an area of moisture convergence and within a zone of 850mb-300mb
differential divergence. Water vapor Satellite and profilers shows a
mid level trough axis extending from northern Iowa to northwest
Kansas at 07Z. Moisture plume continues over the area as seen on
satellite along with waves moving within it. Precipitable water
values of 1.8-2.2 inches are expected again today. Short range high
resolution models show convection redeveloping across north central
and central Kansas this morning while maintaining the precipitation
across east central Kansas. With the approach of the mid level
trough axis, deep moisture convergence and diffluence will keep the
potential for locally heavy rainfall through the morning and into
the afternoon hours. Models are in agreement with decreasing the
precipitation from north to south through the day then ending across
east central Kansas in the early evening hours. Will keep highest
precipitation chances across east central Kansas through mid morning
then generally south of I-70 for the remainder of the day as a .
With clouds and rain cooler temperatures are expected in the upper
70s to lower 80s. Tonight skies will gradually clear behind a
southwestward moving cold front and invading high pressure. Dry cool
advection will bring relief from the high humidity with low
temperatures ranging from the mid 50s to the lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2016

By Thursday, a mid-level ridge will be advancing into the central
U.S. with surface high pressure over the Northern Plains sinking
southward into the Central Plains. The region will remain under the
influence of high pressure through the end of the week, resulting in
drier and cooler conditions with highs near 80 degrees and overnight
lows in the mid 50s to low 60s. Models show a mid-level trough
moving into the Pacific Northwest on Friday, with this trough
expanding across much of the western half of the CONUS through the
weekend. This advancing trough will help to push an area of surface
low pressure into the High Plains region Friday night into Saturday,
and this low pressure will become anchored just west of the area
through the remainder of the weekend into early next week. This
surface pattern will result in increasing southerly flow across the
area, which will support a warming trend late weekend into early
next week. High temperatures will return to near-normal in the
mid/upper 80s with low temperatures in the mid/upper 60s to low 70s.

Models show the potential for some embedded shortwaves to develop
within the southwest flow aloft as the mid-level trough shifts into
the central U.S. over the weekend. These shortwaves could provide
enough forcing to produce scattered showers and storms to the area
during the Saturday through Tuesday period, however confidence
remains low in the timing and location of these waves and, thus, the
associated precipitation. As a result, have only slight to low-end
chance PoPs in at this time for Saturday through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 638 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2016

A Mix of vfr and mvfr cigs are expected through 17Z with
precipitation increasing through the morning hours. Added a tempo
for tsra at MHK from 14Z-17Z. VSBYS varying from mvfr to ifr with
convection. All terminals improve to VFR by 18Z with scattered
convection left vcts going until 20Z-21Z time period. VFR expected
after 22Z.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...53



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