Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 171119
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
619 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler airmass in place today and Monday.

- Monday morning feels cold with lows in the low 20s and possibly
upper teens.

- Elevated fire danger mostly for this afternoon but possibly on
Monday as well.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 201 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Currently, upper air and satellite analysis show that a broad and
deep trough is in anchored over the Great Lakes region with a trough
axis pushing into the central Plains region. Subtropical moisture
remains across the deep south from Texas through the Gulf coast
region. A cutoff low remains over the Desert Southwest while a semi-
permanent blocking ridge is still set up along the west coast into
Canada. Near the surface across the local area, a surface ridge
continues to build into the region behind a cold front that pushed
through yesterday with much colder cP air to the north in Canada
which will move into the area as a high pressure cell works down
into the Plains modifying as it does so.

High confidence forecast has remained on track from the past few
days depicting this overall setup. Cooler air with a north wind
today continues to support lower overall high temperatures. Much of
the area should struggle to reach near 50 degrees today. With higher
confidence in colder air working south and a 1030mb high pressure
cell on the way, have nudged down temperatures a few degrees into
Monday with highs in the 40s across the area. Only a few spots with
afternoon mixing over north central may be able to support near 50
degrees. The morning will be much colder than what has occurred
across the area in the recent past. Some may dip into the upper
teens by early Monday morning. With the growing season not yet in
place, just notable that it will be very cold but it is also still
late winter so not unexpected.

By mid week, most ensemble data and major deterministic solutions
suggest that the western ridge begins to break down and the
southwestern low begins to fill and becomes phased with the
Westerlies and begins to advance into the southern Plains region as
the overall northern energy works a bit further south. This should
help keep any weather system that produces meaningful precipitation
on a more southern track through the southern Plains. The northern
periphery typically sees less in the way of precipitation overall
with dry air making saturation more difficult. As this entire
shortwave system works through the deep south, broad mid level
ridging spreads over the central Plains and helps keep temperatures
overall warmer into the 50s and 60s for the balance of the week into
next weekend. Southwest flow eventually sets up which could help
bring eventual precipitation chances back into the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 619 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

VFR conditions prevail through the period. An upper trough continues
to push through the area. Thus, any mid to high cloud cover shifts
south of the area. This leaves mostly clear skies through the period
as a cooler and drier airmass continues to push into the region. As
a result of the low level CAA continuing as the surface ridge builds
into the area. Winds gust from mid morning through early this
evening and then begin to relax into Monday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 202 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Elevated fire danger sets up this afternoon primarily over north
central areas as a well mixed airmass helps to bring minRH values to
the low 20 percent range or perhaps slightly lower for a couple
hours in the mid afternoon. Winds could gust to around 30 mph as
well which will bring the fire danger levels to the very high
category and approaching Red Flag conditions. Still don`t expect
widespread concerns, so will continue to message elevated levels of
fire danger for this afternoon. Burning is not recommended today as
the wind would be strong enough to make containing fires
difficult.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Drake
AVIATION...Drake
FIRE WEATHER...Drake


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