Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 302043

National Weather Service Topeka KS
243 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 242 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015

20Z water vapor imagery shows the closed upper low over southwest
NEB, which pretty much dominates the central U.S. weather pattern.
At the surface, an area of low pressure had formed over eastern NEB
with a trough of low pressure extended southeast through the Ozarks.
A band of light snow associated with the upper level vorticity
advection was moving through north central KS.

For tonight the models are in good agreement the upper level low and
its surface reflection will drift north towards southern MN. This is
expected to keep a deep westerly flow over the forecast area with
dry air advecting in. So with the forcing lifting to the northeast
of the area and dry air building in, the weather should remain dry.
Models show enough low level mixing of the boundary layer that the
potential for ground fog looks to be fairly low. With some clearing
and radiational cooling, lows should fall into the mid and upper
20s. On Tuesday, quite weather is expected with dry air in place.
Although models show a shortwave rotating around the back side of
the upper low. It is not out of the question that this could lead to
some flurries along the NEB state line. There doesn`t appear to be a
lot of cold air advection on Tuesday. So areas that get some
insolation should see highs warm into the mid 40s. Places up north
where mid level clouds should be on the increase during the day are
expected to remain in the 30s for highs.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 242 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015

A trend of quiet weather going through next weekend. Surface high
pressure gradually migrates across the central US with temperatures
warming into the 40s and 50s by the end of the week. Towards the end
of the weekend a mid level low pressure cuts off from the main flow
over the southern Rockies and eventually lifts out over the plains.
There is fairly decent model agreement of the mid level low passing
over or just south of the forecast area. This system will struggle
to get the moisture this far north without better dynamics.
Temperature profile suggest that precip type could be either rain
and or snow.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1109 AM CST MON NOV 30 2015

CIGS are expected to gradually improve through the afternoon. But
the stronger low level dry air advection hold off until this
evening, which should allow the low clouds to scatter out. At this
point, models show enough mixing of the boundary layer to minimize
fog potential. But this will be something to watch on later


.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Wolters is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.