Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 200450

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1150 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

Strong WAA and ample mixing of +20C H850 air pushed temps into
record high territory with temperatures as of 3pm in the mid 80s
to low 90s. Topeka was at 88 at the top of the hour, Concordia 84,
and Manhattan 91. Aside from some upper level cirrus propagating
through the zonal flow, it was a clear and somewhat hazy afternoon
with dewpoints in the upper 50s to around 60. Winds will remain
out of the SSW through this evening out ahead of an approaching
frontal boundary. This front will slide through overnight, but
with a downslope-modified airmass accompanying the passing of the
boundary, highs on Monday will still be 20+ degrees above normal.
May see some patchy fog develop out ahead of the front after 06Z
given the light winds and moist airmass, but recent high res
models have backed off on this solution and will continue to
monitor trends through the evening.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

The surface frontal boundary is forecast to move south into northern
Oklahoma and far southern Missouri Monday night. Weak waves will
move across the Central Plains late Monday night through Wednesday
bringing small chances of off and on precipitation to the area. Main
frontogenetic banded precipitation looks to just set up to the north
in Nebraska, but northern border counties will have the better
chances for precipitation on Tuesday. Still may see a mix of rain
and snow north Tuesday night and early Wednesday. Temperatures will
be cooler with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s and 40s.

The upper pattern begins to change as an upper level trough moves
eastward on Wednesday. A ridge builds into the Southern and Central
Plains late Wednesday, then moves off to the east on Thursday as the
upper level trough approaches the southern Rockies. Good warm and
moist advection occurs Wednesday night with showers and elevated
storms developing overnight in the moisture and instability axis.
May have a dry period on Thursday afternoon and evening across much
of the area with increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms
Thursday night into Friday. Models are coming into a little better
agreement with the timing with the GFS slowing down from previous
runs, but continue to differ in placement of the position of the
upper and lower level synoptic features. The system should move east
out of the area on Saturday with high pressure building in for next


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

VFR conditions are likely through the TAF period. LLWS is ongoing
with 2000 ft AGL winds around 50 kts according to local radar
profile data. A cold front will pass over TAF sites between 12-15Z
with a shift to northerly winds at 10-15 kts for much of the day.
There is a small chance for slightly reduced vis after the cold
front passage but believe VFR is most likely.




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