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000
FXUS63 KTOP 290448
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1148 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

19Z water vapor imagery shows the center of a mid level ridge over
the central Rockies with a broad mid level trough from the northern
MS river to New England. This leaves northwest flow over the central
plains with no obvious wave within the flow. At the surface, an
elongated ridge of high pressure stretched from the southern plains
to the Canadian boarder.

For tonight and Tuesday, the forecast area is expected to remain
under the northwest flow pattern and models continue to show little
signs of a discrete wave moving through the flow. However there are
some signals of mid level frontogenesis developing over north
central KS late tonight. The NAM has been hinting at some light
shower activity for a couple runs now and the RAP and ECMWF seem to
have joined the NAM in developing some light QPF along the axis of
mid level frontogenesis. Deep moisture remains somewhat limited, but
there does appear to be enough mid level moisture for some minor
accumulations. Because of this have expanded the area of slight
chance POPs and increased sky cover through the day Tuesday. The
models show relatively shallow 700-500MB lapse rates around 5C/km,
so think thunder is an outside possibility at best. At this point
the forecast anticipates some high based shower activity across
north central KS by the pre-dawn hours of Tuesday possibly spreading
into northeast KS through morning and into the early afternoon. With
the mid level clouds expected to increase overnight, have trended
min temps up a couple degrees across north central KS. If clouds
move in faster and further east, the min temp forecast may be a
little cool across eastern KS. Highs Tuesday could be a little
tricky if clouds break out for the afternoon and insolation
increases. For now have highs in the lower 80s where it is expected
to be mostly cloudy and mid 80s where the could be a little more
sunshine.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

Northeastern sections of the state will continue to be on the
northeast edge of the moisture and lift associated with the upper
wave (in the Great Basin today) rotating around the ridge for the
mid week periods. There remains enough suggestions of passing though
not deep areas of frontogenesis and moisture present for chances for
precipitation Tuesday night into at least the early portions of
Wednesday, but by late Wednesday, northerly mid level winds return
to dry the column. Precipitation chances will remain low, but can
see a situation where a few narrow bands of weak convection develop
and could be rather stationary, resulting in a wet period for some
locations. Very elevated nature of precipitation should keep any
amounts light. Highs Wednesday should be coolest nearer the
anticipated better coverage of precipitation in southern areas,
possibly staying below 80. With clearing skies and light winds, will
need to watch for fog potential Wednesday night.  Thursday brings
clearer skies through much of the day with slightly warmer temps.

Despite the continued northwest to north flow aloft, models continue
to produce somewhat random areas of precipitation for much of the
later periods. There fairly good agreement with weak low pressure
moving into eastern Nebraska Friday and on south into eastern Kansas
Saturday and there could be enough convergence resulting for
isolated convection, but instability will continue to be rather
limited. Will maintain small chances for Saturday at this point.
Expect general slow rises in temperatures with time, but still a
touch below early August norms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR conditions expected through the taf period. Recent model runs
continue to develop a narrow band of showers across the area
during the morning hours. Placement is somewhat consistent over MHK
while TOP/FOE remain on the outer edges. Thunder will be very
limited if any, and with bases around 7kft the chances of any
visibility restrictions are low. Showers should dissipate/move out
in the afternoon only to return within the vicinity of MHK later in
the evening. Those details are uncertain at this point.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Sanders