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000
FXUS63 KTOP 122046
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
346 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013

A RESPECTABLE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND A SLOW RETURN TO SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE BRINGING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE 60
THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  WEAK SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
NOTED RIGHT OVER THE AREA AS WELL AIDING IN SOME SHOWER AND ISOLATED
THUNDER MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE STATE.

TONIGHT/MON...AFTER A COLD NIGHT SATURDAY...WILL SEE WARMER
TEMPERATURES BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FOR TOMORROW AS WELL AS WARM
AIR ADVECTION ALOFT...WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S...SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. 67

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL SEE SUBSTANTIAL WARM ADVECTION AND
UPPER RIDGING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH 850 HPA TEMPS FORECAST
TO EXCEED 24C ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SUGGEST A
WELL MIXED AND DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY SOARING INTO THE 90S. WHILE TEMPERATURES
RISE THE DEWPOINTS WILL MIX OUT RATHER EFFECTIVELY...AND WILL
PROBABLY DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHILE
THE SOUTHWEST WINDS GUST TO 30 MPH OR SO. THIS WOULD BE A RATHER
VOLATILE SET UP FOR FIRE WEATHER...BUT THE GREEN-UP HAS BEEN IN
FULL EFFECT THIS SPRING AND WILL NEED TO CONTACT LOCAL FUELS
EXPERTS BEFORE DISCUSSING FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS FOR TUESDAY.
REGARDLESS...THE FIRE DANGER WILL BE ELEVATED.

A FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO DROP SOUTH INTO NORTHERN KANSAS BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING COURTESY OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
MEANWHILE...A SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW WILL DRIFT OUT OF MEXICO AND
INTO OKLAHOMA BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THE DEEP MOISTURE PROFILE WILL
IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH A ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONT AND AN AREA OF ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL ASCENT CLOSER
TO THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW. ACTUAL PRECIP CHANCES WILL DEPEND
ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT AS IT STALLS AND ITS PROXIMITY TO
THE UPPER LOW...BUT FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE A FAIR CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS AND PERHAPS FARTHER NORTH IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE IN
PLACE SOUTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT BUT WIND SHEAR IS NOT
PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH
DEPENDENT UPON EVENTUAL ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER LOW. SEVERE
STORMS WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT LARGELY CONDITIONAL
ON THE SHEAR PROFILE. LOW TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARM WITH
WIND AND CLOUDS BUT HIGHS WILL BE LIMITED TO AROUND 80 BY THE
AMPLE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP POTENTIAL.

AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IS SHAPING UP FOR THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT
SUNDAY. A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN CONUS WITH
WEAK RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF
WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE
WHICH MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. THE MOST LIKELY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH POTENTIAL TO MOVE EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS IF THE WEAK DISTURBANCES AND CONVECTIVE INTENSITY ARE
SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME A RATHER STRONG CAP THAT SHOULD SET UP
UNDER THE RIDGE. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL DRIFT EAST BY SUNDAY
WITH GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE PLAINS STATES. IT WOULD SEEM
THAT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WOULD INCREASE BY NEXT WEEKEND ALTHOUGH
STILL DEPENDENT UPON LOCAL CAP STRENGTH AND EASTWARD PROGRESSION
OF THE DRY LINE AS A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. FOR
NOW...LEANING CLOSER TO THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS INDICATED BY THE ECMWF MODEL. THIS WOULD ALSO LEAVE THE
FORECAST AREA UNDER A FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR
ADDITIONAL DAYS...WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR TO SUPPORT
AT LEAST SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH TIMING OF
THE BEST CHANCES IS STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL VARY WITH CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTIVE
EFFECTS BUT SHOULD GENERALLY SEE HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE
60S.

BARJENBRUCH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013

VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS WINDS LIGHT
AS SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS DRIFT SOUTHEAST. THUNDER SHOWERS OBSERVED ON
RADAR WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM TERMINALS.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...BOWEN