Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 181903
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
303 PM EDT Tue May 18 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds surface and aloft through the end of the
week, yielding increasingly summer-like conditions. That high
shifts west this weekend, allowing disturbances to arrive.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 300 PM Tuesday...

Showers associated with a weakening warm front have dissipated.
Afternoon convection may still fire across southern portions of
the area where moisture content is highest, and in the mountains
on elevated heat source, as evidenced by the more robust
cumulus field there. However, heating has been most effective
north thus far, where there has been little or no cloud cover,
prior to the cumulus field developing there as a result.

Gradual clearing will take place tonight, allowing valley fog
to form, particularly in the deeper valleys in and near the
mountains. A weak upper level disturbance will be shunted west
of the area Wednesday by a building upper level ridge, as the
warm front dissipates. Anticipating nothing more than an
isolated afternoon thunderstorms in the far west nearest the
disturbance, and again over higher terrain on elevated heat
source.

Central guidance temperatures looked good, generally widening
the diurnal range a bit.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 239 PM Tuesday...

Upper heights will gradually rise mid to late week as a 500 mb
anticyclone retrogrades from the Southeast US towards the Tennessee
Valley by Friday. With this feature providing plenty of subsidence
across the area, dry conditions with increasingly warmer
temperatures are anticipated throughout the short term period. The
warmest day of the period will occur on Friday as upper heights peak
at around 592 dam, which may allow a few locations to reach 90 by
Friday afternoon. Otherwise, mainly quiet and warm to hot
weather is expected through the end of the week.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 239 PM Tuesday...

As the upper level anticyclone continues to retrograde further west
towards the lower Mississippi Valley by early next week, our area
will become better positioned to be exposed to numerous shortwave
disturbances rotating around the northern periphery of the ridge. As
a result, a more active and unsettled pattern should return to the
area by the weekend and into early next week. With northwest flow in
place and better deep layer shear, wouldn`t be surprised to see
a better chance of some more organized convection but confidence
in specific details is still too low at this time. In addition,
temperatures should also trend slightly cooler throughout the
long term period with upper heights slowly decreasing and the
better opportunity for showers and storms. However, temperatures
will still remain above normal through the end of the period as
the upper ridging still remains established across the area
into the new work week.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 225 PM Tuesday...

Thunderstorms may pop this afternoon near a warm front over
southern WV and the Tug Fork area. BKW is the site most likely
to be impacted, but an IFR thunderstorm cannot be ruled out at
CRW or HTS.

Otherwise high pressure building surface and aloft will
dissipate the warm front by Wednesday afternoon. A weak upper
level disturbance may trigger thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon
west of the Ohio River, but that same building high will shunt
that disturbance off to the north, largely bypassing much of the
area east of the Ohio River Wednesday.

Valley fog formation is likely to form under a clearing sky
overnight tonight, especially near the mountains.

Flow will be light and variable, mainly southeast at the surface
and south aloft.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: A thunderstorms may directly impact a
southern TAF site, particularly BKW, this afternoon. Fog
formation may vary overnight tonight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are forecast.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RG
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...RG
LONG TERM...RG
AVIATION...TRM


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