


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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657 FXUS61 KRLX 190015 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 815 PM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A tropical airmass remains over the region with several short wave troughs passing through. Locally heavy showers and storms over increasingly compromised soils may lead to flash flooding. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 815 PM Friday... Showers and thunderstorms south of a front, which is now slicing into northern portions of the forecast area, continue to rumble across the middle Ohio Valley and mainly northern and central WV. This activity should continue to gradually wane in coverage and intensity tonight, although not necessarily entirely. We have had isolated instances of quick, flashy storms this afternoon, and an excessively heavy downpour cannot be ruled out even into the overnight, given the front in the area, and tropical moisture in place. As of 240 PM Friday... The atmosphere is primed for convection this afternoon and evening with an extremely moist airmass in place. In fact, PWATs on the latest SPC MesoAnalysis page are around 2" along the OH River with most of the region between 1.7" and 2.1". As of this afternoon, surface heating/insolation has effectively eroded most of the morning inhibition, allowing scattered thunderstorms to develop just to the west of the CWA. This area of convection will move into the region later this afternoon and into the evening. This will increase the flash flood threat where storms train over already saturated soils or train for multiple hours in one location. Instantaneous rainfall rates could easily exceed 5" inches per/hr with one hr totals exceeding 1-2". Any locations that see more sustained training or repeated storms could see localized bullseyes over the next 24hrs of 2-5". This could lead to localized considerable flash flooding. As for some of the stronger storms, localized damaging winds will be possible from wet microbursts. Any wind threat should wane into the overnight, but heavy rain will remain a threat. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 240 PM Friday... The active and humid pattern continues Saturday. Another mid-level disturbance will provide forcing within the same tropical airmass. The thermodynamic profile will be similar to Friday, with afternoon MLCAPE reaching 1000-2000 J/kg. A slight increase in deep-layer shear is anticipated, with shear values potentially reaching 20-30 knots. This may allow for better- organized multicell clusters and transient short line segments, increasing the potential for isolated damaging wind gusts, warranting another Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms. The primary threat, however, remains flash flooding due to efficient rainfall processes in the moisture-laden environment. It is becoming increasingly likely the mid shift will need to issue another Flash Flood Watch for Saturday. By Sunday, a cold front will begin to push into the region from the northwest. The front will serve as a focus for convective initiation. Ahead of the front, strong heating/insolation will again generate modest instability, with MLCAPE values between 1000-2000 J/kg. While deep-layer shear will remain modest, sufficient instability and lift along the boundary support a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms, with damaging winds being the main concern. The front will clear the area from northwest to south Sunday night, bringing an end to the widespread precipitation threat. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 240 PM Friday... A notable pattern shift occurs early next week as the frontal boundary pushes south of the area and high pressure builds in from the north. This will introduce a drier and more stable airmass on Monday, resulting in a marked decrease in precipitation chances. The dominant weather story for the remainder of the long term will be building heat. A subtropical ridge is forecast to strengthen and expand northward, promoting subsidence and a steady warming trend. High temperatures, starting in the mid 80s on Monday, are forecast to climb into the low 90s by Wednesday and Thursday. With dew points remaining sticky in the upper 60s to low/mid 70s, afternoon heat indices will approach the mid/upper 90s, with some locations possibly reaching 100 degrees. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 815 PM Friday... Scattered showers and thunderstorms should largely diminish after sunset, although one or the other cannot be entirely ruled out overnight. Areas of stratus and fog are likely to form overnight at least at locations that have had rain earlier, which were HTS, PKB, CKB and BKW, although EKN has the best chance for receiving rain this evening. The fog will lift just after daybreak, and the stratus will gradually lift into MVFR stratocumulus through the morning hours, before ceilings climb above 3 kft early Saturday afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms may fire up at least across southern WV and northeast Kentucky Saturday afternoon, but will become more likely throughout the area late in the day or even in the evening, when a short wave trough approaches from the west. Light and variable to calm surface flow tonight will become light west to southwest on Saturday. Light southwest flow aloft tonight will become light west overnight and continue light west through Saturday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: The forecast of stratus and especially fog overnight into early Saturday morning is highly uncertain. A shower or thunderstorm could roam about the area overnight. Timing, locations and intensity of showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon could vary from the forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 EDT 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L L L M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M H EKN CONSISTENCY H H M H H H H H H L M L PKB CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H M M M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M L L M M && AFTER 00Z SUNDAY... Brief periods of IFR conditions possible under showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours, Saturday night through Sunday. IFR or worse fog is also possible during the overnights Saturday and Sunday nights, especially where any heavy rain falls the previous day or evening. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Saturday for WVZ005>011-013>020- 024>034-039-040-515>526. OH...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Saturday for OHZ066-067-075-076- 083>087. KY...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Saturday for KYZ101>103-105. VA...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Saturday for VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JRM/TRM NEAR TERM...JRM/TRM SHORT TERM...JRM LONG TERM...JRM AVIATION...TRM