657
FXUS61 KRLX 190015
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
815 PM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A tropical airmass remains over the region with several short
wave troughs passing through. Locally heavy showers and storms
over increasingly compromised soils may lead to flash flooding.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 815 PM Friday...

Showers and thunderstorms south of a front, which is now
slicing into northern portions of the forecast area, continue to
rumble across the middle Ohio Valley and mainly northern and
central WV. This activity should continue to gradually wane in
coverage and intensity tonight, although not necessarily
entirely.

We have had isolated instances of quick, flashy storms this
afternoon, and an excessively heavy downpour cannot be ruled out
even into the overnight, given the front in the area, and
tropical moisture in place.

As of 240 PM Friday...

The atmosphere is primed for convection this afternoon and
evening with an extremely moist airmass in place. In fact,
PWATs on the latest SPC MesoAnalysis page are around 2" along
the OH River with most of the region between 1.7" and 2.1".

As of this afternoon, surface heating/insolation has
effectively eroded most of the morning inhibition, allowing
scattered thunderstorms to develop just to the west of the CWA.
This area of convection will move into the region later this
afternoon and into the evening. This will increase the flash
flood threat where storms train over already saturated soils or
train for multiple hours in one location. Instantaneous rainfall
rates could easily exceed 5" inches per/hr with one hr totals
exceeding 1-2". Any locations that see more sustained training
or repeated storms could see localized bullseyes over the next
24hrs of 2-5". This could lead to localized considerable flash
flooding.

As for some of the stronger storms, localized damaging winds
will be possible from wet microbursts. Any wind threat should
wane into the overnight, but heavy rain will remain a threat.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 240 PM Friday...

The active and humid pattern continues Saturday. Another
mid-level disturbance will provide forcing within the same
tropical airmass. The thermodynamic profile will be similar to
Friday, with afternoon MLCAPE reaching 1000-2000 J/kg. A slight
increase in deep-layer shear is anticipated, with shear values
potentially reaching 20-30 knots. This may allow for better-
organized multicell clusters and transient short line segments,
increasing the potential for isolated damaging wind gusts,
warranting another Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms. The
primary threat, however, remains flash flooding due to efficient
rainfall processes in the moisture-laden environment. It is
becoming increasingly likely the mid shift will need to issue
another Flash Flood Watch for Saturday.

By Sunday, a cold front will begin to push into the region from
the northwest. The front will serve as a focus for convective
initiation. Ahead of the front, strong heating/insolation will
again generate modest instability, with MLCAPE values
between 1000-2000 J/kg. While deep-layer shear will remain
modest, sufficient instability and lift along the boundary
support a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms, with damaging
winds being the main concern. The front will clear the area from
northwest to south Sunday night, bringing an end to the
widespread precipitation threat.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 240 PM Friday...

A notable pattern shift occurs early next week as the frontal
boundary pushes south of the area and high pressure builds in
from the north. This will introduce a drier and more stable
airmass on Monday, resulting in a marked decrease in
precipitation chances.

The dominant weather story for the remainder of the long term
will be building heat. A subtropical ridge is forecast to
strengthen and expand northward, promoting subsidence and a
steady warming trend. High temperatures, starting in the mid
80s on Monday, are forecast to climb into the low 90s by
Wednesday and Thursday. With dew points remaining sticky in the
upper 60s to low/mid 70s, afternoon heat indices will approach
the mid/upper 90s, with some locations possibly reaching 100
degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 815 PM Friday...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms should largely diminish
after sunset, although one or the other cannot be entirely ruled
out overnight.

Areas of stratus and fog are likely to form overnight at least
at locations that have had rain earlier, which were HTS, PKB,
CKB and BKW, although EKN has the best chance for receiving
rain this evening. The fog will lift just after daybreak, and
the stratus will gradually lift into MVFR stratocumulus through
the morning hours, before ceilings climb above 3 kft early
Saturday afternoon.

Showers and thunderstorms may fire up at least across southern
WV and northeast Kentucky Saturday afternoon, but will become
more likely throughout the area late in the day or even in the
evening, when a short wave trough approaches from the west.

Light and variable to calm surface flow tonight will become
light west to southwest on Saturday. Light southwest flow aloft
tonight will become light west overnight and continue light
west through Saturday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: The forecast of stratus and especially fog
overnight into early Saturday morning is highly uncertain. A
shower or thunderstorm could roam about the area overnight.
Timing, locations and intensity of showers and thunderstorms
Saturday afternoon could vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
EDT 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    M    M

&&

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
Brief periods of IFR conditions possible under showers and
thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours,
Saturday night through Sunday. IFR or worse fog is also
possible during the overnights Saturday and Sunday nights,
especially where any heavy rain falls the previous day or
evening.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Saturday for WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>034-039-040-515>526.
OH...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Saturday for OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>087.
KY...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Saturday for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Saturday for VAZ003-004.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JRM/TRM
NEAR TERM...JRM/TRM
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...TRM