966
FXUS61 KRLX 202146
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
446 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Chances of rain tonight into Friday, continuing into Saturday.
A more potent system arrives possibly Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 445 PM Thursday...

Updated the forecast to reflect the faster timing of rain
arriving based on the latest radar trends.


As of 1225 PM Thursday...

Drier conditions continue across the area today, however it remains
rather gloomy, as ample moisture remains trapped beneath an
inversion. This should generally linger for the near term period,
with some improvement in visibility and cloud height this afternoon
and evening before lowering again tonight. Temperatures overnight
will remain rather mild owing to the cloud cover.

On Friday, a warm frontal boundary associated with a low pressure
system that develops in response to a shortwave across the southern
U.S. will move into the area, with showers and thunderstorms
developing. This should be yet another good soaking rain across much
of the region, with high moisture content air streaming into the
region, with PW values progged to be anomalously high for this time
of year, generally 1.2 to 1.3 inches. Heavier rains at this time
look to be far northern zones/just north of the area, as a low
pressure wave rides east along the frontal boundary Friday evening.
Threat for severe looks to be rather low owing to a lack of decent
instability/cape. Precipitation will gradually taper off late Friday
into Saturday as shortwave energy crosses and a front sweeps across
the area, but precipitation may linger across southern zones as
another low pressure wave moves through on Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1225 PM Thursday...

Precipitation will gradually taper off late Friday into Saturday as
shortwave energy crosses and a front sweeps across the area, but
precipitation may linger across southern zones as another low
pressure wave moves through on Saturday. Otherwise, a gradual drying
trend will take hold for later Saturday into Sunday as high pressure
builds into the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1225 PM Thursday...

Monday looks to be continued dry, and warmer, as high pressure
remains in control, and upper heights build across the area in
response to an approaching system/trough. Focus then shifts to
Tuesday into Wednesday next week, with indications for a potent low
to develop across the southwest U.S., eventually lifting northeast
towards the area. Strengthening winds associated with this system
will help to draw ample moisture from the Gulf region towards our
CWA, with another soaking rain expected.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1225 PM Thursday...


Widespread MVFR and areas of IFR ceilings continue to linger
across the area. Some improvement is expected this afternoon to
widespread MVFR, with areas of VFR possible across southern WV
and SW Virginia. However, overnight, conditions are expected to
deteriorate again, with widespread IFR developing again. There
is also the possibility, that areas of LIFR or worse could
develop in fog or low stratus, but confidence is lower in that
at this time, but may need to be added in future TAF issuances.

Rain moves back into the area Friday morning, with IFR
restrictions possible in rain.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of improving ceilings Thursday
afternoon and evening may vary. Uncertainty exists in extent of
restrictions in fog and/or low stratus tonight, with worse
conditions possible than currently forecast.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
EST 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    M    M    H    H    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    L    M    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
Areas of IFR in rain possible Friday into early Saturday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SL
NEAR TERM...RPY/SL
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...SL