Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 211729
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1229 PM EST Sun Jan 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild weather this weekend and then strong cold front crosses late
Monday with widespread rainfall. Cooler and windy behind the
front, but turning warmer again late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1220 PM Sunday...Added some slight chance PoP across the
south through this afternoon, as we are see a few light showers
develop with the overrunning today. Current thinking as that
this will line up across the north later this evening and
tonight with the warm front. Eventually by tomorrow morning, any
threat for rain should be well north of the region, but precip
chances will increase across the Ohio Valley later in the
afternoon as cold front approaches from the west.

As of 845 AM Sunday...Just made some minor changes to sky cover
over the next few hours. Early morning visible satellite is
showing a large field of stratus across the region and based on
latest forecast soundings this should hold through at least
early this afternoon. For now, have kept mostly cloudy
conditions through the afternoon and into this evening, as
guidance is suggesting some drying in the low levels later
today. Fingers crossed that maybe a few breaks of sun will pop
through the clouds before it sets this evening.

As of 600 AM Sunday...

Adjusted temperatures into mid morning based on current obs and
trends.

As of 1240 AM Sunday...

Weak lift and overrunning moisture leading to widespread stratus
clouds early this morning. Radar showing echos developing -- but
no observations showing any precipitation reaching the ground
yet. Eventually we will see some areas of drizzle or light rain
making it to the ground, mainly across the northern half of the
forecast area as a warm front lifts through. The precipitation
and lower clouds should gradually drift north of the forecast
area late today into tonight.

Temperatures will hold fairly steady through the pre-dawn,
before another mild day today. Bumped up highs across the coal
fields, where we should get some breaks in the clouds this
afternoon, otherwise no major changes made. Southerly flow will
provide another mild night tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 215 AM Sunday...

Main change to the overall forecast for the short term is the
increase in the sustained winds and gusts, mainly in the post
frontal environment. May end up in advisory criteria for wind in
the highest elevations Tuesday into Tuesday night. Otherwise, no
major changes to the forecast timing and QPF amounts. Still not
getting any thunder to come out of the weather grids as
instability is low, but wind profile certainly details a strong
speed and directional shear environment. Will not discount the
possibility of thunder completely, however, given the SPC
general thunder risk over our area in the Day 2 Convective
Outlook.

Still very warm Monday ahead of the cold front with guidance in
the mid to upper 60s for the lowlands. Drop off in temperature
will be sharp behind the front, but the Pacific nature of the
system keeps temperatures near normal mid week.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 215 AM Sunday...

Have already the lingering wind, especially in the mountains,
carrying over from the short term period. Have some post frontal
low level moisture to deal with Tuesday night, a brief lull, and
then again late Wednesday and Wednesday night with a quick
moving open wave in the flow aloft. There is snow potential, but
really playing down any accumulations in the mountains at this
point for Tuesday night.

Another warm up is expected as high pressure passes to the east
of the mountains and puts the region in warm advection/return
flow.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1230 PM Sunday...

MVFR stratus associated with a warm front is generally confined
to northern forecast area this afternoon. Can`t rule out
possible a quick rain shower or even some drizzle, but not
enough confidence to add to the TAFs at this time. Conditions
will improve by Monday morning, with VFR expected through at
least 18Z Monday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR stratus may vary at times today across
northern sites. Could get some fog or drizzle tonight across
the north, but fog is looking less likely with the cloud cover
expected.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
EST 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    M    L    L    L

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR possible Monday night under rain showers.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MZ/26
NEAR TERM...MZ/MPK
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...MPK


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